1. 1 CMOS for next 15 years as the mainstream of nano device technology: problems, solutions and beyond that Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan Hiroshi IWAI

2. 2 16Gb NAND, SAMSUNG Now: After 45 Years from the 1st single MOSFETs

3. 3 Sub-10 nm CMOS transistors will be realized with new technologies anyway. Concerns of integration such huge number of transistors. Already 16Gbit: larger than that of world population comparable for the numbers of neurons in human brain 128Gbit: comparable with those of galaxies

4. 4 Concerns for the integration 1) Too huge power consumption, heat generation? 2)Too huge variations in transistor characteristics, which could make the circuit design impossible? 3)Too many number of transistors for the circuit designers to manipulate? (design crisis) 4)No merit of transistor downsizing in performance and power, because of CR of interconnect cannot be reduced? 8)Who will pay the huge production cost?

5. 5 JEITA IC Handbook 150mm wafer 200mm wafer 300mm wafer Front-end processing equipments Front-end processing buildings Back-end processing equipments Front-end ancillary facility Back-end processing buildings 1M 4M16M 64M 256M 1G Bit DRAM Amount of capital investment (M US$) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Amount of capital investment on Each of DRAM generation Problem is the huge production cost and investment!

6. 6 Examples of foundry facility: UMC UMC

7. 7 TSMC Volume production with lager wafer is a solution

8. 8 Concerns for Nano-CMOS integration

9. 9 9 yrs + 2 yrs delay*9 yrs? + 2 yrs delay?9 yrs + ?yrs delay 675mm/2021? 450mm/2012?300mm/2001 200mm/1990 (125/150mm - 1981) We are here When does this happen? When do we start planning for next wafer size transition?

10. 10 Furnace  Height: 12 m  Weight: 36 ton  Hot zone: 40 inch  Cusp-type super conductive magnet Crystal  Diameter: 400 mm  Weight: over 400 kg  Body length: over 1m Provided by Super Silicon Crystal Research Institute Corp.(SSi) Crystal pulling furnace becomes too huge Si crystal height cannot be very long because of its weight

11. 11 200420052006200720082009201020112012 200420052006200720082009201020112012 Carrier & lot-size determination Direct Transport Standards Production Equipment Standards Factory Control System Standards Interoperability Testing & Reliability Verification 450mm wafer Standards There is a proposed time line from 300 to 450 mm, but huge cost, work, energy are required, And no one can take a leadership at this moment.

12. 12 Concerns for the integration 1) Too huge power consumption, heat generation? 2)Too huge variations in transistor characteristics, which could make the circuit design impossible? 3)Too many number of transistors for the circuit designers to manipulate? (design crisis) 4)No merit of transistor downsizing in performance and power, because of CR of interconnect cannot be reduced? 8)Who will pay the huge production cost?

13. 13 Those concerns have been talked about so many times and so many years. (Like wolf boy!) Hopefully, the status in which wolf has not come, would continues for future. Each concern is a really crisis and critical problem. However, each crisis will not make completely useless to make downsizing. We will find a practical solution with many compromises, such that water always fine a lowest places and keep running.

14. 14 P. P. Gelsinger, “Microprocessor for the New Millennium: Challenges, Opportunities, and New Frontiers,” Dig. Tech. 2001 ISSCC, San Francisco, pp.22-23, February, 2001 Microprocessors Trend Today: 2002 (Intel) Lg sub-70 nm Tox 1.4 nm f 2.53 GHz P several 10 W N 50 M Heat generation 2002 年 10W/cm 2 Hot plate 2006 年 100W/cm 2 Surface of nuclear reactor 2010 年 1000W/cm 2 rocket nozzle 2016 年 10000W/cm 2 Sun surface 2008 (Intel) Lg sub-25 nm Tox 0.7 nm f 30 GHz P 10 kW N 1.8B MIPS 1M MIPS (TIPS) Increase in Power consumption Heat generation Past: 1972 (Intel) Lg 10,000 nm Tox 1200 nm f 0.00075 GHz P a few 100 mW N 2.25k

15. 15 1)Power and heat increase Maybe, it is not efficient to increase the clock frequency and number of transistors There will not be a big merit without improving the operating frequency of board or package, and reduce the power consumed there. Main job of my PC is editing of the document and accessing to internet. Such an extremely high clock frequency should not be necessary. Improvement of PC algorithm such that using file searching method of Google will save the power very much. Downsizing of Printed Circuit Board will also save the power.

16. 16 5) Variation of transistor characteristics System and circuit design will assume such variation. If too huge variation, Reconfigurable circuit and system desing can avoid such transistors with huge variations. ECC （ Error Correction Code ） will helps a lot. Cannot suppress the variation under certain level, but we can offer as many transistors as the designers want. It is also important to use the larger device in the circuit, depending on the usage. Large gate are is useful to reduce the flicker noise.

17. 17 6)Desing crisis for human power We could expect the progress of CAD. Then, we can do only whatever we can design in that period with the given manpower. Multi-level system/circuit design, such as multi-core of microprocessor will save the human power, for example.

18. 18 7) Interconnect R & C It has been continuously said from 2 or 3 micron meter generations that interconnects limit the downsizing. But fortunately, it has never happened before.

19. 19 8)Huge development and production cost. Leading edge company in memory, microprocessor, DSP, foundry make huge profit. They should cover the coat.

20. 20 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 （ B Yen ） IntelSamsung TI Runesus ToshibaTSMC NEC EL Good Profit JEITA; IC Handbook ProfitRevenue Japanese maker Smaller profit

21. 21 8)Huge development and production cost. Leading edge company will pay the cost. Otherwise they will drop off from the existent race, and the competitor will be very happy. 2 nd and 3 rd tier companies could enjoy the reduced cost of the development and production, but no big profit. They cannot be too late to proceed to the downsizing, because China will catch up soon.

22. 22 Future

23. 23 Post Scaling Issue 2030 3 nm Gate length Post scaling period ?

24. 24 Anyway, we will reach the downsizing limit in 15- 20 years. It will not happen, suddenly: “There is no downsizing from tomorrow and you do not need to come to company from tomorrow” Probably, period of each generation, or node will becomes longer and downsizing eventually approaches to the limitation.

25. 25 After the limit of downsizing? No, technology node change, and then, no design of new microprocessors? Same lithography mask can be used for many years? Same equipment can be used for many years? 2 nd, 3 rd companies and counties reach to make the most advanced microprocessors with cheap cost? Then, price of microprocessors and even equipments becomes extremely cheap? It will be a very good thing for microprocessor users. However, will it be a very serious crisis for advanced countries and companies in semiconductor? If there is no more downsizing, the semiconductor engineers will lose their jobs?

26. 26 There are many jobs after the downsizing. Technologies of the introduction of new material, new process, new structure, will not be completed in 15 years. Note that introduction of new materials usually take more than 10 years. There are also other many works remain: Hybrid integration, 3D integration, Miniaturization of board. Efficient algorithm for system. There would be a revolution for manufacturing process Do we need big CR? What would be a wafer in future? Is it the same as it is now?

27. 27 Scaling proceeds Size (Gate length etc ） Saturation of Downsizing 2020 ？ 5 nm ？ New Materials, New Process, New Structure （ Logic, Memory) Hybrid integration of different functional Chip Increase of SOC functionality 3D integration of memory cell 3D integration of logic devices Low cost for LSI process Revolution for ＣＲ， Equipment, Wafer Miniaturization of Interconnects on ＰＣＢ (Printed Circuit Board) Introduction of algorithm of bio-system Brain of insects, human

28. 28 Thank you for your attention!