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Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Center for East Asian and Shanghai.

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Presentation on theme: "Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Center for East Asian and Shanghai."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) Center for East Asian and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies Alexander Lukin, Director Sino-Russian Trade and Investment Cooperation: Prospects for the Future The Global Institute Russia-India-China (RIC) Conference 4 th Annual International Conference: 20-21 November 2008

2 Main Economic Results in 2007, Russia and China (US $ bln) RussiaChina GDP12863249 GDP per capita (PPP)146005300 GDP Growth (%)8.111.4 GDP Structure (Share, %) Industry39.149.2 Services56.339.1 Budget Revenue299640.6 Budget Spending262634.6 Foreign Debt384.8363 Currency Reserve4701493 Foreign Trade Turnout625.42138.4 Export3651221 Import260.4917.4 Inflation, в %124.7

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8 Russia’s Exports’ Structure 1995 2000 2005 Food Alcohol and Tobacco Raw Materials except Food and Fuel Fuel and Oil Products Fat and Food Oil Chemicals Industrial Products made of raw materials Machinery Other

9 Russia’s Exports’ Structure in 2006 and 2007 (US $ thousands) CIS Code Commodity 20062007 Growth $ thousands % % Total:17554116100.019676895100.012.1 01-24Food products and agricultural raw materials (except for textile)12839237.314336667.311.7 25-27 Mineral products including: 986897956.21025944552.14.0 27Oil and Energy products946423353.9934141147.5-1.3 28-40Products of chemical industry, rubber218875512.5255218613.016.6 41-43Leather and fur125560.1144390.115.0 44-49Timber, paper280001316.0375952319.134.3 50-67Textile, textile products and shoes77270.098190.027.1 71Precious stones and metals and jewelry316500.2445200.240.7 72-83Metals and metal products11334306.513321976.817.5 84-90Machinery and vehicles2171551.22560411.317.9 68-70 91-97 Other22860.048140.0110.6

10 Russia’s Imports’ Structure 1996 2000 2005 Food products Alcohol and tobacco Raw materials (except food nd oi) Oil a nd oil products Fat and Food oil Chemicals Industrial products, made of raw materials Machinery and vehicles Other industrial products

11 PRC Trade with 10 Major Trading Partners in 2006, US $ blns (Chinese statistics) Total turnoutExportImportShare of the total turnout Growth (%)Change of the share (%) US262.68203.4759.2114.924.20.0 Japan207.3691.64115.7211.812.5-1.2 Hong Kong166.17155.3910.789.421.6-0.2 ROK134.3144.5389.787.620.0-0.3 Taiwan107.8420.7487.116.118.2-0.3 Germany78.1940.3137.884.423.6No data Singapore40.8523.1817.672.323.3No data Malaysia37.1113.5323.572.120.9No data Netherlands34.5130.863.652.019.8No data Russia33.3915.8317.551.914.7-0.1

12 PRC Trade with 10 Major Trading Partners in 2007, US $ blns (Chinese statistics) Total TurnoutExportImportShare of the turnout (%. January- November ） Growth (%)Change of the Share (%. January- November) USA302.083232.70469.3787414.015.0 (14.4/17.2) Japan236.021102.0713133.9510.9 13.9 （ 11.4/15.8 ） -0.9 Hong Kong197.248184.31812.8169.1 18.8 （ 18.8/18.9 ） -0.3 ROK159.89856.141103.7577.4 19.1 （ 26.1/15.6 ） -0.3 Taiwan124.4823.458101.0225.7 15.4 （ 13.1/16.0 ） -0.5 Germany94.11248.71845.393 20.4 （ 20.8/ 19.8 ） Russia48.16528.48819.6772.244.3 (79.9/12.1)0.3 Singapore47.15629.63817.51815.4 (27.8/-0.9) Malaysia46.39817.69128.708 25.0 （ 30.7/21.8 ） Netherlands46.34141.4134.928 34.3 （ 34.2/35.0 ）

13 China’s Outward FDI Stock by Countries and Regions (US $ mln) Country/Region20032004200520062007 Total33222.2244777.2657205.6275025.55117910.50 Hong Kong24632.2630392.8936507.0842269.9168781.32 Cayman Is.3690.686659.918935.5914209.1916810.68 Virgin Is. (UK)532.641089.381983.584750.406629.54 USA502.32665.20822.681237.871880.53 Australia416.49494.58587.46794.351444.01 Singapore164.83233.09325.48468.011443.93 Russia61.4123.48465.57929.761421.51 ROK235.38561.92882.22949.241214.14 Macau446.86624.83598.70612.47910.67 Germany83.61129.21268.35472.03845.41 Kazakhstan19.7124.78245.24276.24609.93 Mongolia13.4275.95130.63314.67592.17 Sudan0.55171.61351.53497.13574.85

14 China’s Oil Imports 2006 (mln tons) Share.%Growth (%)2007 (mln tons)Share (%)Growth (%) Total145.1810014.2163.1710012.3 Saudi Arabia23.8716.47.626.3316.110.3 Angola23.4516.234.425.015.36.6 Iran16.7711.617.520.5412.622.4 Russia15.96112514.538.9-9.1

15 Russia’s Trade with Major Partners (2005- 2007) US $ blns CountryTurn out 2005 Expor t 2005 Import 2005 Share of total trade (%. 2005 ) Turno ut 2006 Expo rt 2006 Import 2006 Share of total trade (%. 2006 ) Growth 2006 (%) Turn out 2007 Expor t 2007 Impor t 2007 Share of total trade (%. 2007 ) Growth 2007 (%) Germany33.019.713.39.743.024.518.59.830.1 (24.1/38. 9) 52.926.326.69.623.0 (7.3/43.9) Netherlands26.524.61.97.838.635.92.78.845.1(45.7 /38/0) 46.642.83.88.420.0 (19.2/43.5) Italy23.519.14.46.930.825.15.77.031.4 (31.8/29. 5) 36.027.58.56.517.0 (9.7/49.1) China20.313.07.36.028.715.812.96.541.0 (20.7/77. 4) 40.315.924.47.340.6 (0.9/89.0) Ukraine20.212.47.85.924.215.09.25.519.7 (20.8/17. 9) 29.616.313.35.422.4 (8.9/44.2) Belarus15.810.15.74.719.913.16.84.525.9 (29.3/19. 8) 26.117.28.94.730.7 (31.2/29,8)

16 China’s Outward FDI Flow by countries and regions Country/Region20032004200520062007 Total2854.655497.9912261.1717633.9726506.09 Hong Kong1148.982628.393419.706930.9613732.35 Cayman Is.806.611286.135162.757832.722601.59 Virgin Is. (UK)209.68385.521226.08538.111876.14 Australia30.39124.95193.0787.60531.59 Russia30.6277.31203.33452.11477.61 (112) Singapore-3.2147.9820.33132.15397.73 Kazakhstan2.942.3194.9346.00279.92 Germany25.0627.50128.7476.72238.66 Mongolia4.4340.1652.3482.39196.27 USA65.05119.93231.82198.34195.73 Sudan --146.7091.1350.7965.40 ROK153.9240.23588.8227.3256.67 Macau31.7126.588.34-42.5147.31

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18 Russian Total Foreign Investment

19 Russian Total Foreign Investment by Country

20 Russian Total Foreign Investment by Country, 2006

21 Russian Federation: Inward Foreign Direct Investments in Nonbanking Corporations. by Country, 2007 - Q2 2008* (Balance of Payments Data, inflows minus outflows) (mln. USD), Central Bank of Russia Country20072008 (Jan-June) Total47.85339.203 Cyprus12.06115.300 Bermuda8.3695.124 Netherlands9.3846.108 Germany7.6951.827 US1.4981.505 Norway1.302332 ROK120104 China11237 Japan8020

22 Недооценка китайских инвестиций за счет операций в оффшорных зонах Example: In July 2006, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), bought a US$500 million stake during Rosneft's IPO and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) acquired a 96.9 percent stake in Udmurtneft for US$3.5 billion from TNK-BP International (British Virgin Islands). The Udmurneft acquisition is a prime example of Chinese investments in Russia which do not appear in the FDI statistics due to the channeling of funds through off-shore vehicles. (Krkoska and Yevgenia Korniyenko 2008)

23 Chinese Investment. Major Sectors forestry mining light and textile industry consumer electronics communications services

24 Major Russian-Chinese Projects in Russia Building of a Residence District “Baltic Pearl” in St. Petersburg (investment – $1.313 bln) Huaming Park in Moscow (Chinese biseness centre) - $ 300 mln.) Paper factory in Chita region - $ 270 mln.) Paper factory in Khabarovsk region - $ 230 mln.) Federation Tower in Moscow - $ 58 mln.)

25 Russian Investment in China In 2007 Russia’s contract investments in China decreased from $190 mln (2006) to $ 52.07 mln. In 2007 105 new project with Russian capital registered in China (2006 – 126). Major areas – industrial production, construction and transport. Accommodated Russian contract investment by the end on 2007 - $1.83 ( 2006 г. – 1.64 mln), growth 11,58%. Russian FDI stock in 2007 $660 mln. (+ 8.19%), Total number of projects with Russian capital - 2080.

26 Major Russian-Chinese Projects in China 2 block of Lianyonggang nuclear power plant (Jiangsu province) Uranium enrichment factory. Tu-204-120С aircraft Russian energy equipment sales to a number of Chinese power plants Russian mining equipment sales for Chinese coal mines

27 Chinese Contract Labour in Russia 20062007Total 2007Growth Work Completed ($ mln) 6601.1004.46032.7% Contracts Signed 1.0701.6008.22024.16% Labourers sent to Russia (person/times) 22 85225 385 Major sectors: - Agriculture - Construction - Forestry - Textiles (Clothes) - Medicine 30.862 labourers in Russia in the end of 2007

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