1. © 2006 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission. Impacts of Climate Change in ECIS: challenges to human development Keti Chachibaia RBEC HDR Community of Practice Meeting May 20, 2008, Bratislava, Slovakia

2. 1 1 Climate change impacts and observed trends Changes in key climatic parameters are already evident. Europe has warmed more than global average, with a 0.95 0 C increase in last 100 years. Source: Based on IPCC AR4 (projections for 2080-2099), NCs and other sources Water shortage Flood risk Fires Sea-level rise hazards DRIER Precipitation between 1998- 2001 less than 55% of long- term regional average Intensity of rainfall and drought- hardened ground led to flash floods Southern & south-eastern Europe have become drier by up to 20%

3. 2 2 Temperature & precipitation response: Europe Changes between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099, A1B Scenario. Source: IPCC (2007)

4. 3 3 Temperature & Precipitation Response: Asia Changes between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099, A1B Scenario. Source: IPCC (2007)

5. 4 4 Climate change poses risks to MDGs Millennium Development GoalsCLIMATE CHANGE RISKS MDG 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Depleted livelihood assets, reduced economic growth, and undermined food security. MDG 2 Achieve universal primary education Reduced ability of children to participate in full-time education by loss of infrastructure, livelihoods (forcing children to work), and displaced families. MDG 3 Promote gender equality and empower women Additional burdens on women's health and time to participate in decision-making and income-generating activities. MDGs 4, 5, 6 Reduce child mortality; Improve maternal health; Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Greater prevalence of vector- and water-borne diseases, heat-related mortality. Declining food security, maternal health and availability of potable water. MDG 7 Ensure environmental sustainability Negatively impacted natural resources and productive ecosystems.

6. 5 5 Climate change also results in losses to development assistance Bangladesh Egypt Tanzania Uruguay Nepal Fiji Fiji Aid flows affected by climate risk in red Shaded areas indicate uncertainty. Source: OECD, 2005; World Bank, 2005

7. 6 6 The most vulnerable countries are often least able to adapt Adaptive Capacity Lower Adaptive Capacity Higher Adaptive Capacity Higher Relative Risks Lower Relative Risks (Data source: Brenkert & Malone, 2007)

8. 7 7 Countries at highest risk, particularly to climate-related disasters The first tier of high risk countries represents the most vulnerable group (low income countries) in the region.

9. 8 8 This translates into crop production decrease up to 30% in Central Asia, even if direct positive physiological effects of CO 2 are taken into account Climate change poses risks to MDG achievements in RBEC :Food security

10. 9 9 Water stress Armenia: water reserves in snow have already decreased 5-10% Azerbaijan: seasonal snow line has risen from 1,300-1,500m to 1,800-2,000m; subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7–7.7km 3 Macedonia: average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years Kazakhstan: surface water resources in most basins will fall 9-29% in 50-100 years Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan: water resources must dramatically increase to sustain current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (up to 70%). Albania: total runoff formation already down 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-century

11. 10 Human and economic losses Historic mortality from floods highest in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP historically highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Bulgaria, Serbia, Belarus, Romania, Albania, and Macedonia Case of Moldova: droughts and floods cause $5-20 million losses annually. Losses in the country’s farming sector due to the drought of 2007 already exceeded $80 million. May compel much larger numbers to migrate. Immediate and longer term impacts on socio-economic welfare and poverty

12. 11 Climate change poses serious risks to MDG achievement in RBEC Food Security Poverty Now 2020-50s 2100s 5% rainfall decline in southern belt of ECIS per decade 40% of irrigation water demand not met in average year; increases to 70% in dry years and drought season (in south Macedonia) Economic losses from more droughts and crop failures Significant decline in annual discharge and runoff formation across the region Irrigation will begin to fail in Central Asia; spring yield will decrease at least 27% Regional and sub- national disparities and increased rural poverty Surface water resources in most basins of Kazakhstan will decrease 9-29% Production of water- intensive crops (e.g. cotton) in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will fail ~3-8% GDP loss in South East Europe and Central Asia Water

13. 12 Climate change poses serious risks to MDG achievement in RBEC Sea level Poverty Now 2020-50s 2100s Dramatic glacier retreats already observed in Pamir, Ala- Too and Caucasus Frequency and intensity of floods on Danube increased Rise in Black Sea level from previous century is detected at a rate of 2.5mm/yr GDP affected by more frequent climate- related disasters In Tajikistan alone, thousands of glaciers will disappear by 2050 Glacial lake outbursts will intensify flood-related disasters Absolute increment of sea level rise on the Georgian coast of Black will be 0.2m Economic losses from floods, landslides and droughts will increase across the region Contribution to runoff formation will fall 15-30% as result of snow melt in parts of Uzbekistan Fergana Valley foothills will become intensive mudslide zones Low-lying coastal areas of the Black Sea and Adriatic inundated ~ 20% Economic losses from damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements Disasters

14. 13 UNDP’s Approach to Adaptation Doing Development Differently Going Beyond Business-As-Usual Climate change scenarios systematically incorporated Climatic vulnerability addressed as part of human development efforts Cost-effective adaptation responses implemented ‘Adaptive systems’ created for managing evolving risks Institutional capacity & cross-agency relationships strengthened Securing human development benefits that might otherwise be undermined by climate change

15. 14 UNDP’s Programming Approach 1. CC risks integrated into national development 2. Financing options expanded for adaptation 3. Integrating CC risks into UNDP operations Food Security Water Security Disaster Risk Reduction Coastal Zone Management Goal: Develop national capacities to secure development benefits that might otherwise be undermined by climate change Threats to Development

16. 15 More at http://sdnhq.undp.org/gef-adaptation/pipelining/tool.php