1. 1 “Science, Decision Support Models and Ecosystem Attribute Valuation: An Application to the San Pedro River, Arizona and Rio Grande, New Mexico” David Brookshire (UNM) David Goodrich (USDA-ARS) Julie Stromberg (ASU) Jennifer Thacher (UNM) Arriana Brand (USGS) Craig Broadbent (IWU) Mark Dixon (USD) Karl Benedict (UNM) Kevin Lansey (UA) Molly McIntosh (MMC-LLC) Steve Stewart (SAHRA) Prepared for: “Challenges in Integrating (Hydrologic) Science into Urban+ Decision Making” (April 29 – May 1, 2013, Tucson, AZ). Includes Economists, Biologist, Ecologist, Ornithologist, Hydrologist, Facilitator, Geospatial Engineer Funded by U.S. EPA Environmental Protection Agency (Star grant program), in part by SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Area), and USGS through SILPE (Science Impact Laboratory for Policy and Economics—UNM)

2. EPA

3. San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA) - One of the Last Great Places On Earth (The Nature Conservancy) SPRNCA formed Nov 18 th 1988 Cattle removal began in 1988 High degree of connectivity of surface and groundwater systems Flows north from Cananea, Mexico to the Gila River in Arizona –~40 miles in length –~56,000 Acres A semi-arid flyway –412 Bird species, with 200+, migrants –One of the most ecologically diverse areas in the world Riparian vegetation consists of –Cottonwood, Salt Cedar –Mesquite, River Grasses 3

4. 4 Restoration: Effects of Cattle Removal in the SPRNCA 1984 1998 View from Hereford Bridge Following cattle removal from SPRNCA in 1988… Expansion of herbaceous riparian vegetation Channel narrowing & stabilization Restoration occurred Photos courtesy of BLM-Files

5. But No Status Quo: Beyond Restoration To Preservation, the Need for a Decision Support System for Adaptive Management Change in aquifer storage –Anthropogenic 5 Change in Consumptive Use –Anthropogenic

6. 6 Water Polices are Available for the San Pedro to bring in Additional Water? INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES location of subdivisions and groundwater wells recharge basins WATER AUGMENTATION increase the amount of water in the basin by piping it in from other regions WATER CONSERVATION/PRICING decrease the consumption of water in the region What are the benefits and costs of these programs? Calculating the costs is relatively straightforward But what about the benefits of ecosystem services?

7. 7 Interested in a Tool for Finding the Balance: Beyond Restoration 1.How to go about an integrated science, and economics framework to find the balance? Meeting Human Needs Meeting Ecosystem Needs San Pedro Subdivisions San Pedro Riparian Area

8. Purpose of San Pedro DSS: to evaluate the benefits and costs of conservation, augmentation, and recharge alternatives (including non-market riparian values) Incorporates multiple factors: USGS groundwater model Surface water supply Groundwater storage Residential/commercial water uses (infrastructure, well location) Simulations up to 50 years Can vary (e.g.): populations location of recharge basin location of future wells Generates alternative futures: BUT-Does not provide or incorporate benefits of ecosystem attributes THUS-tradeoffs identified are incomplete DSS Tool DSS

9. Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic Changes Hydrology Component Changes Riparian Component Changes Avian Component Survey (Education) Ecosystem Services Demand Curves DSS (current conditions) Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes) 1.Surface Water 2.Birds 3.Vegetation 4.Cost Characterization of an Ecosystem 1.Components 2.Processes 3.Outputs Linking Science and Economics: A Foundation for Ecosystem Services Valuation Integrate Values Into DSS Physical Science Plant Science Avian Science Modeling Science Scenario & Social Science Abiotic, Biotic, Geography & Remote Sensing Science

10. Science Based Definitions and Ecosystem Attributes Valuation studies are typically not anchored in an integrated science models: What is needed: –Walk through the forest - what do you know about it? The forest is pretty etc, but doubtful one knows the mix of vegetation, birds, groundwater levels etc Without this information cannot decide what you prefer from one area to another –What is needed is science driven ecosystem attribute endpoint “bundles” describing ecosystem services With the drivers of change clearly defined, Thus defining change in the system (marginal change of attributes) 10 Characterization of an Ecosystem 1.Components 2.Processes 3.Outputs

11. What Does Economics Require for Valuing Ecosystem Services ? (3 Elements) 1.Ecosystem components of a “Place” 2.Ecosystem process and functions Biological, chemical, and physical interactions between ecosystem components of a “place”: 3. Ecological endpoints of a “place” – changes in these are necessary descriptors of the Ecosystem Attribute “bundles” as attributes for Valuation– These are directly related to human welfare measure Water flows, vegetation mix and abundance, bird population, abundance and density There are things your neighbor would understand! 11

12. Ground Water Futures (GWF) GWF1: 0.5 m uniform decline in ground water table GWF2: 1 m uniform decline in ground water table GWF3: 0.5 m uniform increase in ground water table GWF4: Continued and increased agricultural pumping near Palominas; new developments in unincorporated areas of Palominas and Hereford near SPRNCA GWF5: Increasing cone of depression in Sierra Vista, Ft. Huachuca, and Huachuca City with impacts toward the lower Babocomari and northern SPRNCA GWF6: Large increases in ground water levels due to recharge and conservation efforts in Sierra Vista and Bisbee GWF7: Combined from scenarios 4 & 5, representing effects of both agricultural pumping in the south and increasing cone of depression GWF8: Low extreme-river essentially dries up GWF9: High extreme-river essentially has surface flows throughout SPRNCA 12 SCENARIOS

13. Alternative Groundwater Scenarios 13 3. DSS (current conditions) 4. Changes Hydrology Component

14. Riparian Model The model places reaches of the river into one of three condition classes: –Based on 9 bio-indicators (e.g. types of plants) which are sensitive to changes in hydrology. Each current condition class (e.g. situation today) is reflective of different levels of ecosystem functional capacity. Model is inside DSS and is used it to track changes in the abundance of each class over time, based upon ground water level changes: –Dry : 73% Tamarisk, 10% Cottonwood-Willow –Intermediate: 21% Tamarisk, 63% Cottonwood- Willow –Wet: No Tamarisk, 89% Cottonwood-Willow 14 5. Changes Riparian Component Tamarisk

15. Avian Model: As riparian changes occur, so goes avian changes 15 6. Changes Avian Component 5. Changes Riparian Component

16. 16 Migrating Bird Abundance Changes Total Abundance (number of birds) S3 Current S1 S2 Declining Groundwater by Scenario 17000 19000 21000 23000 Current S2 S3 S1 Condition Class CC2 CC1 CC3 25000 7. Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes)

17. Placing Values on Ecosystem Services Development –1963 NRJ Robert Davis (air quality – USEPA—ORD) –Embodied now in various U.S. Fed. Docs Contingent Valuation Model (CVM) –Asks individuals their Willingness To Pay (WTP) for a single ecosystem attribute (e.g. greater number of birds) Choice Modeling (CM) –Asks individuals to choose a specific alternative from a set of Ecosystem Attribute Bundles (e.g. birds, vegetation, surface water) 17 7. Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes) Surface Water Birds Veg.

18. Designing the Surveys: Focus Groups Focus groups have been conducted using the Choice Experiment (CE) San Pedro Survey Public Feedback –Wanted more information Created “Drill Downs” –Changes in presentation of visual material –Indicated what information was most useful Science Feedback –Reviewed survey for technical accuracy 18

19. Marginal “Dollar” Values and their Use What kind of Marginal Dollar Values are generated from Contingent Valuation and Choice Modeling for Ecosystem Endpoints? –Miles of Visibility –Changes in Endangered Species Populations In this study -- Obtain Marginal Dollar Values (values for incremental changes) for: –Miles of surface water –Breeding birds by nest heights –Breeding birds by surface water dependency –Spring migratory birds –Vegetation diversity 19

20. San Pedro/Rio Grande Survey Survey includes: –Introduction and discussion of riparian zones/focus on groundwater –Background about the San Pedro/Rio Grande –Essentially sets up market information –Development of Ecosystem Services Endpoint Attribute Bundles Water, Vegetation, and Birds 20 7. Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes) Surface Water Birds Veg.

21. Current Condition Contingent Valuation Example Alternate Condition - 1 Alternate Condition - 2 Ask: How much are you willing to pay for Alt. #1 over CC? How much for Alt. #2 over CC? How much for Alt. #2 over Alt. #1 ?

22. Choice Modeling Example - Riparian Preservation Decisions points: 1) do nothing 2) maintain CC 3) improve CC – different construction/conservation measures with each decision Current Condition Alternate Condition - 1 Alternate Condition - 2 Attributes Riparian Vegetation % Time SW Is Present Bird Type/Pop. Attributes < 60% > 60% < 95% > 95% Bundle #1 Bundle #2 Bundle #3 Attributes across bundles are NOT independent Need science ( ) to describe dependence of attributes in a bundle

23. SPRNCA WTP Estimates WTP to move from the Current Conditions to S6 –Vegetation is the significant variable and the most important variable –Large inc. in recharge, sig. inc. in surface flows WTP to avoid moving from the Current Conditions to S4 –Water is the significant variable and the bundle of ecosystem services is significant –Involved continual pumping thus degradation WTP Increments WTP Avoid Decrements Bundle-$10.94$94.92 ** Bird-$41.44$31.89 Veg$99.54 ** -$240.79 Water$57.60 * $72.87 ** *, ** denotes significant at the 10% and 5% levels

24. Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic Changes Hydrology Component Changes Riparian Component Changes Avian Component Survey (Education) Ecosystem Services Demand Curves DSS (current conditions) Ecosystem Valuation Component (Attributes) 1.Surface Water 2.Birds 3.Vegetation 4.Cost Characterization of an Ecosystem 1.Components 2.Processes 3.Outputs The Scientific Foundation of Ecosystem Services Valuation Integrate Values Into DSS Physical Science Plant Science Avian Science Modeling Science Scenario & Social Science Abiotic, Biotic, Geography & Remote Sensing Science

25. Horizontal: Transferability science and valuation within a region (e.g. SW) (SP/RG//Verde/Salt/?) (continuing) 25 (SPRNCA) (MRG) A goal is to have a menu of transfer functions for a region Why– original studies for ALL areas is to expensive Benefit Transfers: Incremental monetary value of an ecosystem endpoint transferred another site Science Transfers: The relative science information between the “study and transfer sites” should be “similar” What we did: Developed Science for the Rio Grande based upon San Pedro Developed a Choice / Contingent Valuation Survey – San Pedro – Rio Grande Compare/Calibrate the Marginal Dollar Values for Ecosystem Attributes

26. Across Sites within a Region: Using Place Based Science and Valuations 26 San Pedro, AZ Rio Grande, NM Gila River, NM Salt River, AZ Steps: Calibrate across the original data sets from San Pedro and Grande Extend San Pedro efforts to upland areas Relate placed based science to: Remote sensing information in Salt River and Gila Within a representative ecosystem, we can use appropriate ecosystem function models Relying upon remote sensing and GIS technologies Relate extent of the market for valuation transfer We are discussing the following.

27. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Secretarial Order No. 3289 establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, which are management-science partnerships that inform integrated resource-management actions across landscapes (February 22, 2010). ?

28. Defining the Region of Analysis (for science and valuation): Extending this work into the Lower Mississippi Valley 28 ? Everglades Hawaii SPRNCA, AZ Rio Grande, NM Gila River, NM Salt River, AZ ? ? Hypothesis: A national map might be a composite of regional studies, based upon place based science and valuations

29. Thank You 29 THANK YOU