1. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning GLOBAL TALENT RALLY Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk International workforce migration

2. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Agenda International Workforce Migration –Facts on Migration –Driving Forces –Origin and Destination countries –Migration Profiles & Life cycles –Pull factors –Strategies for Recruitment: Attract and Retain Workshop

3. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Facts on Global Migration In 2010: –3% of the world population are global migrants. –The majority of migrants – ca. 100 mio. – are labor migrant. –In developed countries - 1 out of 10 is a migrant. –In developing countries - 1out of 70 is a migrant. –16% of international migrants are under 20 years of age and 17% are over 60 of age. These segments are increasing steadily. –½ of labor migrants are women. Between 2005-2010 the numbers of international migrants increased by 1.8% annually. In 2007, accounted remittances constisted of 2.200 mia DKK. –1.500 mia DKK were sent to developing countries - more than double the amount sent as state financial aid! Source: UN Population Division: International Migration 2009

4. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning New Tendencies in global man power mobility Growing in number –More than trippled in 10 years. –700 million internal migrants a years (urbanization). New destinations –10 most popular destinations receive a smaller pct. compared to 2000. –Traditional South to North patter is changing. –Chinese and Indian migrants soon to compromise 40% of global workforce. More unpredictable –BRIC and Next-11 countries as both origin and destination of migration? Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

5. Various types of Migration Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Continuing typesNew & Future Types Brain drainBrain Gain (Social & money remittances) Temporary laborEducation Settlement/permanentLifestyles choices ReunificationPension ForcedPartner

6. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning WHAT DRIVES MIGRATION?

7. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Drivers for development Migration CauseFactors affecting the decision to migrate Supply-PushDemand-pullDriving Forces EconomicUnemployment High taxes Low wages Few develop. opp. Labor demand Higher wages Career & personal development Economic growth Knowledge centers Demographic Change Globalisation Individualisation Polarisation Climate Change Health Immaterialisation/ Experiences Non-EconomicWar and Crisis Lack of security Discrimination Unhappy partner/family Family Re-unification Education Freedom Adventure Source: Phillip Martin m.fl.: International Migration. Facing the challenge i Population Bulletin, vol. 57, nr. 1, marts 2002

8. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Drivers for development Source: Phillip Martin m.fl.: International Migration. Facing the challenge i Population Bulletin, vol. 57, nr. 1, marts 2002 Migration CauseFactors affecting the decision to migrate Supply-PushDemand-pullDriving Forces EconomicUnemployment High taxes Low wages Few development Opportunities Labor demand Higher wages Career & personal development Economic growth Knowledge centers Demographic Change Globalisation Individualisation Polarisation Climate Change Health Immaterialisation/ Experiences Non-EconomicWar and Crisis Lack of security Discrimination Unhappy partner/family Family Re-unification Education Freedom Adventure

9. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Economic Developemt GDP Growth 2000-2010 19% 33% 15% 61% 96% 28% Source: www.imf.org - IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)

10. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Economic Developemt GDP Growth 2010-2020 11% 32% 9% 61% 15% Source: www.imf.org - IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) + CIFS estimate

11. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Economic development Mega-regions ’ The more things are global, the more decisive location becomes ’ Michael Porter Harvard Business School on the Location Paradox Mega-regionsPopulation in Millions Population global share Economic activity, global share Most frequent quoted scholars, global share 10 Biggest4166,5%43%53% 20 Biggest54010%57%76% 40 Biggest1. 15018%66%83%

12. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Knowledge Accumulation: New Knowledge Hotspots Source: UNESCO 2009

13. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Knowledge Accumulation: New Knowledge Hotspots Source: UNESCO 2009

14. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Demographic Change: An aging world Source: UN Population Perspectives, 2008

15. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Demographic Change: Europe and Africa Source: UN Population Perspectives, 2008

16. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Globalisation: Number of migrants on a global scale UN Population Division: International migration, 2009.

17. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning DESTINATION COUNTRIES

18. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Migration destinations 23,4% 50 mio. 3% 7 mio. 32,7% 70 mio. 8,3% 18 mio. 28,5% 61 mio. 3,4% 8 mio. Source: UN Population Division: International Migration 2009

19. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Top Destination Countries Source: UN Population Division: International Migration 2009

20. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning International Migrant stock (in thousands) Source: UN Population Division: International Migration 2009

21. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning International migrants (percentage of total population) Source: UN Population Division: International Migration 2009

22. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning WHERE DO MIGRANTS COME FROM?.. AND HOW DO WE RECRUIT THEM? 10 approaches

23. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #1 – Migration across continents Emigrate from…Emigrate to…Immigrate from… Europe Eastern Europe, Balkan, Russia High income countries, OECD and EU Internally, Latin America, Turkey and ME, North Africa (ex-colonies) North America USA, Canada Hihg income countries OECD South- and Central America, Caribbean, North Africa South America Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Brasil USA, the last 15 years also Spanien, Portugal, Italien, Japan, India Other South American countries Asia East Asia: China, Phillipeenes, Vietnam, Indonesia. South Asia: Inda, Bangladesh, Pakistan. Primarily Asia, USA (East ASia), Australia (South/Central), Europe, ME Filippinerne Within region high income states, Hong Kong, Coastal China, India Middle East Global, Marocco, Egypt, Algeria, Irak High income countries, both within and outside of OECD High income countries in oil states Africa GlobalSouth Africa: USA, UK, Australia, In regionen. North and Eastt: Europe, North America. Within regionen. Source: IOM - World Migration. Managing Labour Mobility in the evolving global economy, 2008

24. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #2 Top 25 Emigration-states,1995 og 2005 Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006

25. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #3 – Skilled immigrants out of net emigration Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006

26. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #4- Skilled immigrants out of net emigration per country Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006

27. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006 #5 - Remittances in top 25 receiving countries, 1995 and 2005

28. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning WHO MIGRATES? Migrant Profiles

29. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #6- Mobility and Age Source: Intelligence Group: Get ready for the international recruitment rally, 2009

30. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #7 - Mobility and life stages Life- stage Apprx. AgeNumber 2020Challenges Free 120-35 yearsSlightly more Millenials Nomads, searching for idendity, self-realization, big cities Parent35-55 yearsFewer Gen. X Pressed for time and money, balance between work and family Free 255+ yearsMore Baby Boomers New opportunities, consumption options, health, self-realization Source: CIFS MR#3, 2010 ’Global Talent Rally’

31. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #8 - New segments Females –½ of migrant population are females. –60% of students in Europe & US and nearly 70% in developing countries are females. –40% more skilled females than males among migrants. Singles –Mobility does not fall according to life cycle. –Strong need for low skilled labor. Low skilled labor force –Migration myth  we only need highly skilled labor. –In US: 2 pct. of labor force but 22 pct. of domestic help.

32. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #9 – Immigrantprofiler Low-Skilled/ ufaglærtMedium-Skilled / faglært Highly-Skilled/ Specialised Permanent Rural Migration Asyllum seeking Political/Environmental Refugee Forced Migration Elder/Retired Political refugees Health Care Political Refugee Temporary Au-pair Service sector- hospitality Youth Construction Sector Health Care Elder Youth Health Care IT-Sector Students Circular Au-pair Service sector- hospitality Seasonal Labor Youth Construction Sector Health Care Researchers Globale talents Generation Y Creative Class Resourcesful Elder

33. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning #10 - Hotspots Close: –Iceland –Ireland Rest of Europe: –Turkey –Ukraine World: –Botswana –Venezuela –Malaysia –Mexico –Thailand –California

34. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Conclusion Need to actively recruit and retain A number of megatrends drive & change migration New tendencies in migration (destinations, number of migrants, unpredictabilities) From push to pull - demand driven labor migration: Demand driven migration – hotspots and knowledge centres Demographic change & the needs of the labor market Talent attraction will be a highly competitive market Migration is therefore becoming more circular in nature New types of migration, new drivers Life-cycle, and migrant-profile oriented strategies Migration becoming increasingly circular There is a need to actively attract and retain new talent.

35. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning ENJOY YOUR BREAK ENJOY YOUR BREAK

36. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning ARE WE ABLE TO ATTRACT?

37. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Global migration barometer DenmarkNorwaySweden Need for migrants 332016 Attractive for migrants 1247 Accessible for migrants 47209 Source: Global Migration Barometer, Verdensbanken 2008

38. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Comparison of Nordic Countries Indication:DenmarkNorwaySweden Qualified labor from 3rd party state Labor from EU/EEC Source: Nordisk Råd - Rekruttering af kompetencearbejdskraft fra tredjelande til Norden, 2010

39. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning The competent and unemployed Source: Bernand Salt, ’Global Skills Convergense’, KPMG 2008

40. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Foreign Talents & Researchers 95 of 96 applications for a PhD at the University of Stavanger’s Institute of Petroleum Technology have come from foreigners. The Foreigner, Norwegian News In English Tuesday, 30th November 1:4 of doctoral fellows & 1:6 of other academic staff at Norwegian universities and university college sectors are foreigners. Research Council of Norway, 2009. ”Why stay in Norway? Outdoor activities, family friendly culture, well- established research community - both temporary and long-term jobs, space for professional development.” Professor Nadim, a qualified civil engineer from Iran. US: 1 foreign engineer creates 5 new jobs. DK: 1 foreign engineer creates 2 new jobs – indirectly many more. T. Rogers, Semiconductor & Danish Ministry of Economics and Business Affairs. DK: In 3 years foreign talents increase productivity with 5-15%. Jan Rose Skaksen, professor at ECON, CBS.

41. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning NEW DEMANDS AND NEEDS

42. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Important Pull Factors Source: Intelligence Group, ’Get ready for the international recruitment rally’, 2009

43. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Incentives for the global worker Pull Factors Companies (in order of priority) Pull Factors Countries (in order of priority) Interesting workPersonal security Language classesOpportunities for professional development Help finding housingExistance of interesting job and career opportunities Career opportunitiesCareer improvement options Repatriation schemesQuality of health care system Help finding child care & schoolsThe environment (green and clean) Paid visit before beginning of work Open hospitable population Source: Oxford Research Expat study 2006

44. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Next generation: Disloyal Source: Experience 2008

45. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Generation Y / Millennials: Source: PWC, ’Talent Mobility 2020’

46. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Talent-profiles in 2020: Difference in strategies Generation X (’70 and start 80’erne): -Top of salary hierarchy. -’People are not flat’ – experienced and high competences- less mobile -Selective in tasks-selection- career focused -Seniority packages. Safety, commute -Long-term tasks Generation Y / Millennials (’90-’00): -New on the labor market -Organizations and world without boundaries. -Most varied/international assignments -Customized & target oriented career styles. -Flexible in length and types of tasks -Emphasis on interests and opportunities Baby Boomers (60’ies): -Reached height of career -Once again mobile -Location & Opportunities -Long-term tasks Source: PWC, ’Talent Mobility 2020’

47. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Conclusion  Norway is attractive but not very accessible  Need to recruit from third countries  Foreigners contribute significantly to the economy.  New demands and needs  Good standard of living (cheap!).  From ‘cradle to grave’.  Incorporate different strategies according to life stages, profiles and needs.

48. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning SHORT WORKSHOP

49. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning In pairs: Interview each other using following guide lines Migrant profile? –What is your marital status and gender? What is your income level (high, medium, low)? Skills and qualification level (low, average, high, expert?) Which age group do you belong to (life phase)? Mobility and needs? Incentives to move to a specific country, megacity or company? –Pull: Personal incentives (Career, selfdevelopment, adventure, etc.) or family incentives (education, spouses career, etc.)? –Push: Poorer opportunities in country of origin? Barriers to mobility? –Lack of knowledge? Lack of incentives? Based on the above information, discuss: –What strategy or strategies should I use to attract and retain you?

50. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Sally Khallash, sk@cifs.dk

51. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Discussion With starting point in your companies, discuss strategies to recruit and retain the global talents you need. For instance: Expertise –What expertise is needed? Which fields? Profile –Age, mobility, experience, language skills, marital status, etc.? Attract –Where and how can we attract them? Through what media? Incentives –Career opportunities, living standards, travel, adventure, job opportunities, education, etc.? Retain –Personal and academic development, customized career in varied fields, family packages, etc.?