1. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2015-05-12 HVAC-4 Webinar at CPUC 2015-05-12 ENERGY HVAC-4 Deemed Measures Study, Year 1 1 Public Webinar for California Public Utilities Commission

2. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Presentation Outline  Study Objectives  Measure selection  Literature review  Description of Crystal Ball ® analysis tool  By Measure – Background Information – Results – Recommendations  Year 2 study plans 2

3. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Study Objectives  Select 3 deemed measures to study  Perform literature review for each  Perform Monte Carlo simulations of ex ante savings using Crystal Ball ®  Identify input parameters in need of updates or information gaps  Inform other HVAC Roadmap data collection efforts  Suggest study plans for Year 2 3

4. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Measure Selection: HVAC Roadmap Savings  Top 5 Natural Gas Saving Measures  Top 5 Annual Electric Saving Measures 4 RankMeasure Group Preliminary Ex Ante Savings, therms 1HVAC Furnace2,830,079 2HVAC Duct Sealing1,578,223 3HVAC Boiler1,427,112 4HVAC Controls: Energy Management Systems (EMS)875,857 5HVAC Controls: Thermostat470,346 RankMeasure Group Preliminary Ex Ante Savings, kWh 1 HVAC Rooftop or Split System 37,981,291 2 HVAC Motor Replacement 28,987,677 3 HVAC Chiller, Water-cooled 22,339,413 4 HVAC Chiller, Air-cooled 21,756,495 5HVAC Fan Variable Frequency Drive (VFD)17,612,888

5. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Measure Selection: HVAC Roadmap Measure Trends Quarterly Natural Gas Savings Claims Quarterly Electric Savings Claims 5

6. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Measure Selection: Selection Criteria Selection Criteria Residential Furnaces Residential QM & Blower Motor Replacements Mini-Splits and VRF Systems ElectricGasElectricGasElectricGas High savers in HVAC Roadmap? False (but growing) TrueFalse TrueFalse Growing participation? True (particularly with VSMs) True Not currently being evaluated? True False (during HVAC-1 pilot) ESPI measure? FalseTrue 6

7. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Literature Review Process  Review IOU workpapers  Review secondary sources  Identify information gaps  Identify opportunities for improvements 7

8. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Description of Crystal Ball Analyses: General  Crystal Ball is an add-in for Microsoft Excel ®  Monte Carlo simulation was named for Monte Carlo, Monaco  When rolling a single die, the roller knows that a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 will result, but cannot know the outcome for any given roll.  To set up Monte Carlo simulations, define the conditions of the input variable—in this case, an integer between 1 and 6, incl. 8

9. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Description of Crystal Ball Analyses: Simulating a Single Die Roll 9

10. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Description of Crystal Ball Analyses: For Ex Post/Ex Ante Comparison  Snapshot of deemed savings from sample workpaper:  Snapshot of gross savings reporting table from CA Evaluation Framework 1 : 10 1 “The California Evaluation Framework,” TecMarket Works Framework Team for Southern California Edison Company, June 2004. (p. 380)

11. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnaces: Background (PG&E)  For central, natural gas furnaces 1 with ≥ 95 AFUE and < 97 AFUE – w/variable-speed fan motors (and w/o)  Annual natural gas deemed savings based on 2011 DEER 2 database  Electric deemed savings assume baseline equipment = constant volume fan 11 1 “High Efficiency Furnace 95 AFUE (1.04 HIR)—Residential,” Pacific Gas & Electric Company, 8/28/2012. 2 “Database for Energy Efficient Resources,” at http://www.deeresources.com/

12. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnaces: Retrofit Prototypes Used in DEER  eQUEST prototype models: 12 Multifamily Building Prototype Mobile Home Prototype Single Family Home Prototype

13. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnaces: Input Parameters VSMs 13

14. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnace VSMs: Simulation Results  Monte Carlo simulation results:  Deemed Savings per PG&E workpaper: 14 Statistical Descriptors Annual Electric Savings, kWh CZ11CZ12CZ13 PG&E Workpaper315224 297 Simulated Mean320225 297 Standard Deviation141107 134 Coefficient of Variation0.440.48 0.45 Minimum13185 149 Maximum705547 675 Mean Standard Error1.411.071.34

15. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnace VSMs: Simulation Results  Annual Electric Savings Distribution by Dwelling Type in CZ11 15

16. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnace VSM: Monte Carlo Simulation Results  Savings Variance Contributions for Single Family Homes in CZ11 16  In most cases, building vintage accounted for the majority of the variance  Thermostat usage bin weights are the next highest contributor to the variance.  Savings at SFM buildings vary significantly by the number of stories.

17. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Furnace & VSM: Recommendations  Assess average blower motor power during non-cooling modes for the baseline and post-retrofit case  Update building vintages represented in the participant population  Update thermostat usage bins and associated weights 17

18. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance & Blower Motor Retrofits: Background  Residential Quality Maintenance Measure Components by IOU 18

19. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance & Blower Motor Retrofits: Background  Residential Quality Maintenance Measure Components by IOU 19

20. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance: Workpaper 20 Source: PG&E Workpaper

21. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance: Background  Annual Electric Energy per Ton, Baseline and Post-Measure, in CZ03* 21 * Excludes blower motor replacement

22. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance: Comparison to Deemed Savings  Simulated Savings and Ex Ante Annual Electric Energy Savings, per Ton 22 The annual electric energy estimates are within 25% of the ex ante savings in all climate zones except CZ12 For peak demand, the simulated savings and ex ante savings in all climate zones except for Climate Zone 1 are within 25%. For natural gas energy, however, the ex ante savings are significantly higher than the simulated savings.

23. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance: Sensitivity Results  Sensitivities of Baseline Annual kWh, kW and therms consumptions 23

24. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Residential Quality Maintenance: Recommendations  Update thermostat offset values and weights based on the 2009 RASS  Verify distributions of duct UAs and furnace AFUEs  Verify building shell Uas  For those ex ante savings that differ significantly from the simulation results, hold a working session with the PG&E workpaper authors to identify the source of the discrepancies 24

25. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Mini-Split and Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems: Background  Mini- and multi-split units: – Ductless split systems <65 kBtuh of cooling capacity – Minimum seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) rating of 16-22  Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems with inverter-driven compressors to vary refrigerant flow during part-load conditions: – In systems of single- or multi-zone configurations  Fan coil units with electronically commutated motors (ECM) to vary the fan speed during part-load conditions  Heat recovery configurations that capture inverter waste heat removed from zones being cooled and diverting the captured heat to zones being heated 25

26. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Mini-Split Systems Background: SCE Methodology 26

27. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Mini-Split Review 27

28. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Mini-Split Review  Three studies are referenced for duct sealing savings with savings ranging from 10% to 18%. – These savings values are from conditioned air leaking to unconditioned spaces The conversion from ducted to ductless systems will only result in fan savings – SEER ratings already account for ductless systems operating with lower static pressure 28

29. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Mini-Split Recommendations 29

30. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 VRF Workpaper Methodology  2011 DEER does not provide savings for VRF measures  2 cases are considered: 1) commercial VRF units or systems with heat recovery and 2) commercial VRF units or systems without heat recovery.  Savings are determined by running EnergyPro ® v5.1 building simulations  Two assumptions are made: – The equipment was manufactured by either Daikin or Mitsubishi, the two largest manufacturers of VRF equipment. – Half of the zones in the building models were served by ducted systems and the other half by ductless units. This assumption was based on the sales proportions provided during interviews with Daikin and Mitsubishi representatives. 30

31. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 VRF Review Recommendations  Gather ex post evaluation data to verify VRF deemed savings  Use EnergyPro ® v5.1—with adjustable performance curves—instead of fixed SEER ratings  Through HVAC-1 evaluation, consider gathering: – Proportions of ducted and ductless zones in commercial spaces – Cooling capacities of these zones – Typical lengths of duct runs in ducted zones  Field or Lab tests could greatly improve these measures to: – Gather data regarding the full range of commercial building types, occupancy types, and associated load profiles. Alternatively, since the tracking data do not contain consistent building type fields, improving the tracking of participant building types would greatly facilitate the identification of building simulation models 31

32. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 Year 2 Plans Based on Year 1 findings:  Review 2014 tracking data for any new trends to inform future efforts  Further investigate measures that have been examined in Year 1  Gather underlying data used for the DEER parametric runs to facilitate running Monte Carlo simulations on parameters that feed into models 32

33. DNV GL © 2015-05-12 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com Posting Comments http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/search.a spx; select “2013-2014” program cycle and search “HVAC”. Public comment may be posted to the Public Document Area through Friday May 15, 2015. http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/search.a spx 33 Rachel Murray Rachel.murray@dnvgl.com 510-891-0446