1. BA 30310: Foresight in Business & Society © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

2. “ A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. ” Wayne Gretzky © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

3. Why do market leaders so often get caught off guard? (i.e. play where the puck used to be) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

4. HP “ We know we’re the fifth man in a four man race.” Richard Kerris, HP Executive, WSJ, July 1, 2011 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5. “Your phone should figure out what you would like to be searching for before you do.” Eric Schmidt, Google CEO The Futurist, Sept-Oct 2011 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

6. #18 in 2013: Can you guess who invented the world’s first digital camera in 1975? Bonus Question: © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

7. Launched: 1996 Withdrawn: 1999 Launched 2002 Launched 1999 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

8. WSJ 12/15/2011 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

9. How can business better anticipate change to make better decisions about the future? http://business.nd.edu/news_and_events/multimedia_gallery/video.aspx?id=5241 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

10. What did you see that surprised you? What skills do those executives suggest will be required in the future? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

11. Obsolescence… 2. What is mainstream now that did not exist 10 years ago? 1. What is obsolete now that was mainstream 10 years ago? 3. What is mainstream today that may be obsolete in 10 years? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

12. Operational Effectiveness (is not Strategy) Performing similar activities better than rivals Strategy Performing different activities Performing similar activities in different ways Source: Michael Porter, “What is Strategy?” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

13. Operational Effectiveness (Better) Strategy (Different) Competitive AdvantageStrategic Advantage 13 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

14. Superior strategic positions are likely to be cognitively distant. Position A Position B Uncontested Positions Close Cognitive Proximity © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

15. “We do not merely want to be the best of the best. We want to be the only ones who do what we do.” Jerry Garcia The Grateful Dead © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

16. What are some examples of companies or CEOs that have been different? … of companies that pursued Operational Effectiveness and were passed by? Why wouldn’t ALL companies aim to be different? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

17. Foresight The ability to anticipate future events and devise plans to take advantage of opportunities and minimize risk. Judging Too Soon Deciding Too Late © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

18. Adapted from Dr. Peter C. Bishop, Studies of the Future, University of Houston Actionable Foresight Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen, Institute for the Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

19. Anticipating Change… To Make Better Decisions about the Future 1. Perspective - Emergent Change in Business and Society 2. Evidence-Based Foresight 3. Insight - Implications for Business © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

22.  Discussion Questions and Lesson Plans Posted on Concourse by End of Prior Week  In Class Sign-In Sheet for Attendance & Preparation  Expect to be Called on In Class  10% of overall grade © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

25.  CLASS PREPARATION ▪ FutureThink pp. 1-21  Homework Assignment  Graph, Photograph, Paragraph  Due_______________ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

26. Student Name: Section: Source: U.S. Dept of Education – National Center for Educational Statistics, http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76 Photo Source: The Economist, July 2 nd -8 th, 2011, Page 46 Trend Observation – Graph, Photograph, Paragraph © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

27.  CLASS PREPARATION  Prepare to discuss your Graph, Photograph, Paragraph submittal in class © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

28.  Bill Marquard “Finding The AND”  7 PM Date TBD  102 DeBartolo  Alternatively: Read Posted Article As a consultant, Bill Marquard has advised some of the world's most influential and forward-thinking companies. Having also served as a C-level leader, he has walked the executive's path. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved