1. Politics and our environment: Current prospects, and ways forward Stephen Hale 16 January 2008

2. Overview The (environmental?) facts Looking back: why they act – and why they don’t Looking back: the state of the greens Political outlook 2009-12 Environmental outlook 2009-12 New approaches to securing action For more info see…

3. The New Politics of Climate Change: Reactions “As I write this, less than 48 hours have passed since Barack Obama’s historic win in the United States. Politics matters. With a ‘rainbow’ coalition and sustained grass-roots effort amazing things can be achieved. Stephen’s pamphlet challenges us to work on climate change in a similar way. All of us, change-makers and funders of change, need to heed this call. The hour is late and the road is steep.”

4. The New Politics of Climate Change: Reactions “As Hale argues, we need different methods of mobilisation and far more effort to secure cultural as well as policy change if we are to overcome the present paralysis. Hale’s pamphlet will provoke a debate on our strategy, and how we can master the full suit of influences we need to get us on the right path.”

5. The (environmental?) facts We have come a long way – in public understanding, political action, and in overcoming some environmental issues - notably point source pollution But… a dramatic collective failure to tackle climate change We have not broken the link between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions and resource use Our failure in these areas profoundly threatens the progress we hae made elsewhere. … a profound and terrifying clash of timescales

6. Looking back: Why isn’t politics delivering? Bureaucracy Ideology – reluctance to regulate Politics: public resistance to action Secondary constraints Nature of issues – ‘pollute now others pay later’ Democratic culture Structures – global problems, national governments

7. The prospects for change: ‘I will, once you have’ central and local government business consumer fear of regulation fear of free riders fear of costs fear of nanny state fear of taxes

8. Looking back: the state of the greens Some successes, many failures Too often marginal and predictable High expectations of government – consistently un-met. Why? Mobilisation – limited, and overwhelmingly restricted to natural supporters (Very) short of allies Development vs environment movements: evolution and impact since 1997

9. Political Outlook 2009-12 It’s the economy stupid Money and jobs first – change in public priorities not values Labour 2009-10 – what’s the project? Cameron’s Conservatives: Opposition first – then what? Labour – the long inquest post 2010 A hung Parliament?

10. Environmental outlook 2009-12 The good news This is not 1991 Climate – could connect with economic context Environmental behaviours – can we make it last? Copenhagen – progress (or backlash?) Labour – the global deal Cameron’s Conservatives: better instincts and wider interests, but schizophrenic on government Liberal Democrats vital in a hung Parliament

11. What would success look like? Four strands of third sector leadership National leadership and action – across the third sector Community, local and regional leadership A green movement - living differently and demanding more Mobilisation across borders

12. Third sector activity on climate change Public commitmentPolicy developmentGovernment decisions environmental advocacy social mobilisation throughout the third sector today tomorrow What coalition?Which champions?What access?

13. Current and future third sector action on climate change CharacteristicsTodayTomorrow What motivates those active on climate change? Overwhelmingly environmental, with some activity motivated by concern for poverty in developing countries Global poverty, domestic poverty, security, prosperity and employment, well-being, health, human rights and environment What is their focus? Overwhelmingly focused on securing action by individual national governments Consistent demands made to national governments, networks used to spread individual commitment & lifestyle change What do they mobilise? Overwhelmingly groups and individuals concerned for the environment, recently those concerned with international poverty Communities: of places, faiths and interests What alliances? Emerging alliance between environmental and developmental concerns Multiple alliances established across the third sector What level of organisation? Primarily nationalGlobal, national, local Mobilisation lowhigh

14. What does this mean for environmentalists? Approach Scale and ambition – work together on breakthrough initiatives Put climate change first Share responsibility – be a catalyst for wider national and local action Elements Invest time and resources in understanding obstacles, and developing new approaches (No change unless we change) Build alliances (voluntary sector, unions, corporate) Build the movement – living differently and wanting more Mobilise across borders – in Europe and beyond Economics first – low carbon houses, jobs, finance… Politics – maximise our influence on a new (hung?) Parliament