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MBIA Insurance Corporation April 2005 MBIA’s results through 12/31/04 Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. P R E S E N T A T I O N.

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Presentation on theme: "MBIA Insurance Corporation April 2005 MBIA’s results through 12/31/04 Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. P R E S E N T A T I O N."— Presentation transcript:

1 MBIA Insurance Corporation April 2005 MBIA’s results through 12/31/04 Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. P R E S E N T A T I O N

2 - 1 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Foundation Principles  Build the strongest team  No-loss underwriting  Triple-A ratings  Build shareholder value

3 - 2 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA & The Financial Guarantee Product  MBIA is a “monoline” insurance company  Irrevocable & unconditional guarantee of scheduled debt service when due  The securities we guarantee are rated Triple-A by Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch  We guarantee a wide range of debt obligations Benefits to Investors  Eliminates credit losses and downgrade risk; and significantly reduces “headline risk”  Greatly improves liquidity and price stability  Long-term “buy & hold” investor in credit risk  Active surveillance; interests aligned with investor’s  Diversification of portfolio

4 - 3 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. For Triple-A Financial Strength Rating Rating Agency Rationale  Conservative credit standards  Strong capitalization levels  Diversified insured portfolio  High quality investments  Stable profitability  Highly experienced management

5 - 4 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Monoline Industry -- Financial Strength $ Billions Definition of Terms Claims-Paying ResourcesFormula:Statutory Capital + Unearned Premium Reserves + PV of Installment Premiums + Loss Reserves + Soft Capital Facilities Leverage RatioFormula:Net Par Outstanding ÷ Claims-Paying Resources Credit Quality RatioFormula:Expected PV of Net Losses/Adjusted Net Par Outstanding Tail Risk RatioFormula:99.9 Percentile Losses/Adjusted Net Par Outstanding Dispersion RatioFormula:99.9 Percentile Losses ÷ Expected Losses Hard Capital RatioFormula:Hard Capital (QSC & UPR) ÷ 99.9 Percentile Losses Total Capital RatioFormula:Total Capital (Hard & Soft Capital & PV Installment Premiums) ÷ 99.99 percentile losses Margin of SafetyFormula:Coverage of theoretical losses generated over a 7-year stress period by capital remaining at the end of the stress period (As of December 31, 2004) Claims-Paying ResourcesRating Agency Ratios Leverage Ratio46:141:166:173:116:1 * As of 9/30/04 MBIA40 bps125 bps3.13x1.50x1.46x1.5-1.6x Ambac40 bps131 bps3.28x1.45x1.43x1.3-1.4x FSA22 bps75 bps3.39x1.72x1.62x1.6-1.7x FGIC16 bps67 bps4.12x1.92x1.78x1.3-1.4x XLCA/XLFA 39 bps168 bps4.58x1.50x1.28x1.3-1.4x Industry Avg. (2) 34 bps115 bps3.51x1.55x1.49x1.4-1.5x Credit TailHardTotal Margin Quality RiskDispersionCapitalCapitalof Ratio* Ratio*Ratio* Ratio* Ratio* Safety** (Lower is Better) (Higher is Better) * Moody’s Measurements (Both Hard and Total Capital Ratios should be >1.30 to earn the Aaa) ** S&P’s Measurements (1.25x is the minimum for a AAA rating for a publicly-held company) (1) XLCA/XLFA’s Margin of Safety is an average of the weighted averages of XLCA’s and XLFA’s theoretical depression losses, claims-paying resources and capital remaining at end of depression. (2) $ weighted average of NPO 12/31/03 (1)

6 - 5 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Financial Highlights Adjusted Direct Premiums710*8291,042 1,2041,6211,146 Gross revenues from continuing operations1,1491,2741,406 1,4331,8572,001 Net Income315 525568 579816815 Expense Ratio - Statutory23.6% 22.1%13.4% 16.8% 12.8%18.3% Total Assets12,247 13,86516,210 18,83530,32433,027 Claims-Paying Resources8,539 9,14010,087 11,01512,63912,888 Loss Reserves469503581 621691727 MBIA Inc. and Subsidiaries (As of December 31, 2004) ($ in MM) 1999 20002001200220032004 * Starting 2001, we are reporting “ADP” (Adjusted Direct Premium), rather than “AGP” (Adjusted Gross Premium). ADP represents upfront premiums and the estimated present value of current period and future installment premiums for policies issued in the period. AGP netted our reinsurance with Ambac.

7 - 6 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. *All ratings current: Ratings derived using S&P Priority Method. If not rated by S&P, Moody’s equivalent used. If not rated by either, MBIA equivalent rating used. December 31, 1999 $384 Billion 71.5% Rated A or Better December 31, 2004 $586 Billion 80.3% Rated A or Better Insured Portfolio - Credit Quality Distribution MBIA’s Net Par Outstanding

8 - 7 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA Insurance Corporation Percent of Net Par Outstanding by Bond Type (As of December 31, 2004) $585.6 Billion

9 - 8 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Insurance Investment Portfolio  $10.2 billion as of December 31, 2004  Fixed-income securities  Average quality Aa  Only investment grade bonds  No real estate  Limits by bond sector, issuer, maturity and state  Effective duration 5.27 years  Average maturity 8.46 years

10 - 9 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Portfolio Sector Growth Overview of MBIA’s Portfolio Total Net Par Outstanding Billions

11 - 10 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Total Portfolio Runoff – Declining Net Par Outstanding (As of December 31, 2004) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 $ in Billions 2049

12 - 11 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Key Characteristics Risk Management  State of the art analytic and modeling tools  Coordinate human capital  Rigorous approval process  Ongoing refinement via feedback mechanisms  Two levels of underwriting committees  Underwriting Committee  Executive Risk Committee

13 - 12 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Municipal  Willingness and ability to pay  Minimum size of jurisdiction/tax area  Diversity of taxpayers/taxes  Legal basis Special Revenue  Public purpose/community support  Size of institution/service area and strong market position  Diversity of users/revenue  Ample/diverse liquidity and historical debt service coverage over 1.0x  Growth based - projections must pass worst/probable case scenario Public Finance  Essentiality  Issuer Strength Risk Management Criteria  Legal Provisions  Investment Grade

14 - 13 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Risk Management Criteria Goal: Asset pools diversified by geography and industry with structural protections against concentrations  Assets  Historical asset pool information and due diligence on statistical sample  Structure  First loss protection via excess cash flow, reserve accounts, overcollateralization, bank letters-of- credit  Legal structure separates assets from seller/servicer through “true sale” to a bankruptcy remote vehicle. Also perfected first security interest  Asset performance tests for delinquency, losses, etc. trap excess cash flow into a reserve account, re-direct excess cash flow, transfer servicing  Players  Investment grade and non investment grade seller/servicers: financially viable with successful history of originating and servicing  Financial covenants:  Termination of new asset purchases (revolving deals)  Trapping excess cash flow  Accelerated debt paydown  Servicing transfer  On-site financial and operational review Structured Finance

15 - 14 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Issues insuredOver 99,000 Debt Service Insured from Inception:$ 1.820 Trillion Aggregate Incurred Losses: *$ 586 Million Case Loss Reserves:$ 247 Million Paid Losses:$ 339 Million Losses Equal to 0.03% of Insured Debt Service Since Inception MBIA Insurance Corporation MBIA Loss History Inception to December 31, 2004 *Includes $236 million for AHERF Unallocated Reserves: $284 Million

16 - 15 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Portfolio Management  The probability of MBIA defaulting on a guaranty is on the order of 100 times less than the probability of a Triple-A corporate defaulting on its debt  MBIA holds capital equal to a 99.99 th percentile or a 1 in 10,000 event  MBIA’s product diversification, rigorous selection and underwriting process and active monitoring and surveillance lowers portfolio risk and improves the quality of our guaranty  International expansion lowers an insurer’s portfolio risk Observations

17 - 16 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Overview and MBIA Profile (as of June 30, 2004) International  Substantial growth potential - 20%+ CAGR  Globalization and convergence of capital markets  Privatization  Decentralization  International offices  London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Sydney, Tokyo and Singapore.  Depth of analytical talent in Armonk supports our global effort  Product specialists in Armonk work jointly with analysts located in overseas offices.  Same underwriting process and committees as in U.S.  International Net Par Outstanding represents 18% of the 12/31/04 book. International ADP YTD 2004 represents 35% of the company’s total.

18 - 17 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. International Top 10 Country Exposures (excluding Global Portfolios*) - As of 12/31/04 *Represents the aggregation of exposure to transactions that span multiple countries **Emerging market exposure remains modest. Net Par from this country and other Emerging Markets countries equaled $5,778 million, representing 5.5% of International Net Par and 1.0% of total Net Par.

19 - 18 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. International MBIA Net Par by Bond Type * Includes direct corporates, corporate pools $105 Billion $105 Billion Outstanding (as of December 31, 2004)

20 - 19 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Benefits to Investors Price Protection Source: Bloomberg MBIA - ContiMortgage Home Equity Loan Trust 6.63% - 12/15/18 Sen/Sub - ContiMortgage Home Equity Loan Trust 6.36% 11/15/19 (0.1%)(1.15%)

21 - 20 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Why Sell Insured Bonds? Hidden Value - Price Protection Southern California Edison Bonds 7.625% 2010 12/7/0012/21/001/14/0112/31/016/6/0211/13/03 Per $100 of Par Value

22 - 21 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. How to Measure Exposure to MBIA Exposure to MBIA  Joint Default Probability Approach: use joint default probabilities to “gross-up” standard limit  Tenor Approach: vary exposure by tenor of underlying transaction  Risk Based Capital Charge Approach: calculate the amount of incremental risk covered by MBIA as demonstrated by the S&P capital charge  BIS Risk Weighted Approach: Use the BIS guidelines to calculate the amount of exposure in a deal which is attributable to MBIA

23 - 22 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Joint Default Probability Approach Source: Moody’s Feb 2002 Corporate Bond Default Study (10 year average cumulative default rates by ratings over 1970-2000 period) & Moody’s Portfolio Risk Model for Financial Guarantors, July 2000. * This does not take into account that MBIA is less likely to default than a Triple-A rated corporate. ** Assumes that ABS defaults at the same rate as corporates, which is not true; ABS default less frequently. *** Does not take into account correlation risk. Benefits to Investors  Default probability of MBIA wrapped assets far lower than default probability of unwrapped, Triple-A rated assets:  Default probability of Aaa rated corporate -- 0.79%*  Default probability of A2 rated ABS (1/3)/munis(2/3) -- 0.95%**  Default probability of A2 rated corporates/munis wrapped by MBIA --.0079 X.0095 =.000075***  Conclusion: The joint default probability of an average MBIA-wrapped security is less than 1% of an unwrapped Triple-A corporate (.000075/.0079 =.00949).  In terms of default probability, $10 million of exposure to unwrapped, Triple-A rated corporates is equivalent credit risk to $1.05 billion of exposure to MBIA wrapped obligations

24 - 23 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA’s Book Value MBIA Performance Perseveres Through Adversity  Hurricane Andrew - 50 killed, $25B in damage in Southern Florida Savings and Loan crisis U.S. Recession, declining real estate values, stress on munis and consumer ABS; Philadelphia financial crisis Mississippi River flood, 52 killed, $15-$20B in damage, 70,000 displaced; First World Trade Center bombing, Port Authority exposure California earthquake (Northridge) 57 killed, $15B in damage; Orange County bankruptcy; Mexico financial crisis Asian crisis; Subprime auto sector difficulties; Balanced Budget Act - stress on health care sector Russian crisis US Tech bubble burst; California utility crisis, PG&E in Ch 11, SoCal Ed restructuring 9/11 - Afghan war Airline consolidation stresses airports; Declining enrollment stresses colleges Iraq war; CA crisis Black Monday Stock Market Drop Gulf War; Brevard County Lease Revenue Bonds Subprime mortgage sector difficulties; AHERF bankruptcy; Capital Asset write-off EETCS challenged; CDOs under scrutiny; Consumer ABS stressed

25 - 24 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. MBIA Strengths Conclusion  Rated Triple-A by Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch  Leading financial guarantee insurance company  Excellent credit quality and diversification of insured portfolio  Strong financial position  Highly rated and liquid investment portfolio  Conservative underwriting and monitoring standards  Strong management team

26 - 25 - Capital Strength. Triple-A Performance. Contacts ContactPhoneE-mail Italy and Greece: Luis Cuttica +39 02 86 337 627luis.cuttica@mbia.com European Infrastructure: Paul David+44 20 7920 6360paul.david@mbia.com Fixed Income Investor Relations: Charlie Williams+1-914-765-3481charlie.williams@mbia.com Chip Reilly+1-914-765-3227charles.reilly@mbia.com Stephanie Dougherty+1-914-765-3631stephanie.dougherty@mbia.com Equity Investor Relations: Willard Hill+1-914-765-3860willard.hill@mbia.com Website: www.mbia.com/investor/index.html For more information about MBIA Insurance Corporation please contact us:


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