1. 1V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Forecast in Power Production and Impact on CCPs in Europe Joachim Feuerborn European Coal Combustion Products Association

2. 2V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Content 1.Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy mix 2.Role of Coal in Europe 3.Production and Utilisation of CCPs 4.Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts 5. Conclusions

3. 3V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia World – Energy Consumption 2012 Graph based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 06.2013 Total: 12.4 bn toe (= 17.7 bn tce) (cp: 14.6 bn tce in 2004) 1 Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy Mix

4. 4V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Expected growth in worldwide electricity generation (in billion kWh) Source: IEA, VGB; in: VGB facts & figures 2012/2013 1 Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy Mix

5. 5V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Expected growth in electricity generation (in billion kWh) worldwide EU Source: IEA, VGB; in: VGB facts & figures 2012/2013 1 Introduction – Role of Coal in Energy Mix

6. 6V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia 2 Role of Coal in Europe Source: EURACOAL

7. 7V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia 2 Role of Coal in Europe Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam production in European coal- fired power plants, especially in single EU member states.

8. 8V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Hard coal + Lignite 2 Role of Coal in Europe

9. 9V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia 3 Production and utilisation of CCPs Development of CCP production in Europe (EU 15) from 1993 to 2010

10. 10V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia 3 Production and utilisation of CCPs Utilisation and dispoal fo CCPs in Europe (EU 15) in 2010

11. 11V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia MS for EU statistics * Estimate based on coal comsumption ** Information on uses only partly available 3 Production and utilisation of CCPs

12. 12V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia  IPPC Directive - Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (main principles for permitting and control of installations, integrated approach, application of Best Available Technique (BAT))  LCPD - Large Combustion Plant Directive (aims to reduce acidifciation, ground level ozone and particulates by controlling emissions of SO 3, NO x and dust from large combustion power plants)  IED - Industrial Emission Directive (successor of IPPCD - aims in minimising pollution from various industrial sources, based on several principals: integrated approach, BAT, flexibitlity, inspections, public participation) The most important Directives are: European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) (replaces and improves the previous European Pollutant Emissions Register) 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

13. 13V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Basic protocol and convention  KYOTO Protocol On 1.12.1997 37 industrial countries agreed to reduce green- house gases (GHG) over the five year period 2008 – 2012, know as KYOTO Protocol which entered force in 2005  CONVENTION on Climate Change The KYOTO Protocol is linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention encourage industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol only commits them to do so. 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

14. 14V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia  Emission (CO 2 ) Trading Industry has to deal with CO 2 emissions with CO 2 certificates. In the first two phases of CO 2 trading the certificates were given for free, the third phase will start 1. January 2013 were certificates will be traded. Mechanisms of the KYOTO Protocol  Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) CDM allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be traded and sold, and used by industrialized countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction targets.  Joint Implementation (JI) JI enables industrialized countries to carry out joint implementation projects with other developed countries 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

15. 15V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Climate and Energy Package In December 2008, the European Parliament and the Council agreed upon the so-called “Climate and Energy Package”, which entered force in 2009. The legislative package put in place what is collectively known as the “EU-20-20-20” targets to be met by 2020:  Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20 % below 1990 level,  Increasing the share of renewable energy to 20%, and  Improving the EU’s energy efficiency by 20%. 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

16. 16V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia The 20-20-20 package is part of the Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050  The European Union (EU) is to become a competitive low carbon economy.  The EU should prepare for reductions in its domestic GHG emissions by 40 % by 2030, and by 80 % by 2050. Aim: Reduction in global GHG emissions of 50 % by 2050 may avoid a temperature increase of 2°C 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

17. 17V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Mitigation of climate change in the EU: two stages – two speeds Reduction of GHG emissions from 5.8 Gt/y in 1990, to some 4.6 Gt/y in 2020, and to some 1 Gt/y in 2050 Source: European Commission and OECD Environmental Outlook, 2008 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

18. 18V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Evolution of installed capacity in EU-27 – 2009 to 2020 53 % 44 % 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

19. 19V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Evolution of Electricity Generation in EU-27 – 2009 -2020 52 % 44 % 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

20. 20V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Source: EURELECTRIC Power Statistics Generation equipment – capacity by primary energy in MW DEPENDING ON POLITICAL DECISIONS! 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

21. 21V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Power Plant efficiency and CO 2 reduction potential of the European Power Industry Source: VGB 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

22. 22V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Power Plant efficiency and CO 2 reduction potential of the European Power Industry with CCS Source: VGB CCS 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

23. 23V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia New power plant projects in European member states Source: VGB 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

24. 24V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia New power plant projects in single EU member states Source: VGB 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

25. 25V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia New hard and lignite firing power plants under construction (excerpt of VGB database on new power plant projects) UCON: under construction 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

26. 26V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia WA: waiting for authorisation New hard and lignite firing power plants in authorisation process (excerpt of VGB database on new power plant projects) 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

27. 27V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Basics for future energy production:  „Renewables first“  Cost effective production by other sources (nuclear, coal, biomass, gas – according spec. merit order) Cost factors to be considered at any time:  Fuel cost  Cost of CO 2 certificates  Energy cost (energy trade)  ………. 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts

28. 28V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia Impacts on energy prices:  „feed in tariffs“ for renewable power (wind, photovoltaic,..) (different in member states) Factors for energy trade:  Duration of contracts (long term/short term)  Calculation: average cost // limit costs  Trading by exchange markets (sport market/prognosis)  ………. 4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts Risks for power production:  Demand dependent production by renewables not possible  Production by e.g. coal as „back up“ in times with low demand and therefore low prices not profitable

29. 29V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia ►Primary energy demand will increase, worldwide and in Europe ► Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam production ► Operation of coal-fired power plants are influenced by European Directives (IPPC, LCPD, IED) and Decisions which aim in reduced emission into the environment. ► The CO 2 -reduction aims 20 % by 2020, 40 % by 2030 and by 80 % by 2050 will result in reduced use óf coal and increase the use of renewables and co-combustion in coal-fired power plants. In addition, the operation conditions of coal-fired power pants will be different. 5 Conclusions

30. 30V Int. Scientific and Practical Workshop "Ashes from TPPS", April 24/25, 2014, Moscow, Russia ►New coal-fired power plant projects are designed for co- combustion and flexible operation. Most of the power plants under construction are already under fire ► Due to energy trading additional factors for operation of coal-fired power plants to be considered. ► The amount of CCPs in EU15 countries is decreasing. However, the amount of ash produced in EU 28 countries sums up to more than 145 million tonnes. ► Coal will remain a major fuel for energy production. ► Quality aspects and marketing activities have to be considered for the use of CCPs. 5 Conclusions