1. AUIDF Alan Olsen www.spre.com.au 21 March 2013

2. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Source countries A key purpose in measuring country costs is to determine where to invest in future

3. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Many international students are recruited from Australia In 23 universities in 2011, 32% of commencing international students recruited from Australia as a source country, 24% of spending on Australia as a source country

4. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Australia has to be a source country, and for Australia to be a source country, the definition of a source country has to be the country from which the international student applied to study at your university, the application submission location, not country of citizenship or permanent home residence

5. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 To prescribe DIISRTE data for country costs ignores that there is no DIISRTE data on country costs or applications or offers Universities will have needed to maintain their own records on country costs, questionnaire asks for that data without a DIISRTE prescription

6. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Source country simplification Source Country is the application submission location, the country from which the student applied to study at your university, regardless

7. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Number of channels Directors decided to exclude the two IDP channels Reviewing that decision

8. Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 Scholarships One of the most important areas of benchmarking In 2011, 7.7% of revenue on scholarships, cf 3.6% on commissions

9. Mobility There was outbound mobility before Asian century Before reverse Colombo Plan And a lot of outbound mobility was to Asia, including China

10. Mobility 2011 in 2012 12.3% of completing Australian undergraduates (one in eight), cf 9.1% of US undergraduates, 13.8% of US bachelor students 32.7% to Asia, cf US 12.0% 9.7% to China, Australia’s second biggest destination, cf US 5.3% to China, US fifth biggest destination

11. Mobility 2012 in 2013 Chaney: data sources on the destinations of Australian students studying offshore are still in a state of early development Continue to include detailed outbound mobility information (fields/ destinations) in paper from AIEC presentation

12. Mobility 2012 in 2013 Destination countries Add Austria Any need to make the destination country list “as many destination countries as you choose”?

13. Mobility 2012 in 2013 Combined or double degree up to 2010 Combined or double degree including Law (7.8%) Combined or double degree not including Law (5.3%) Commerce/Law; Commerce/Other than Law; Law/Other than Commerce; Other Double Degree

14. Data Collection Two years so far, 2011 and 2012 Incomplete Lack of completeness is a problem Quality Alternative approach

15. Data Collection HEIMS Approach Collection of data directly from HEIMS (the Higher Education Information Management System) used by universities for reporting data to DIISRTE Three times per year This year and last year

16. Data Collection HEIMS Approach One XL flat spreadsheet for this year, one for last year In each case there should be one row of data for each international student enrolled in your university Output is a pivot table just like an AEI pivot table

17. Data Collection HEIMS Approach 310 course of study type code 358 citizen/resident indicator 534 course of study commencement date 477 postcode or overseas country code location of campus/delivery location 569 type of operation of campus 320 location code of permanent home residence

18. Data Collection HEIMS Approach Next steps Simple/technical version? Audience? Compulsory? Working group?

19. Student Progress Commencing international bachelor students passed 84.75% of what they attempted in 2011, domestic 84.35% In 23 universities, commencing international undergraduates did better In 11 universities, Australians did better In three universities, no difference (less than one percentage point)

20. Student Progress Increasing numbers of Australian universities are setting entry standards, including English language entry standards, for international undergraduates that lead to successful outcomes, are monitoring academic performance and are providing English language and study skills support

21. Student Progress

24. Student Progress 84.75%/84.35%

25. Attrition 8.92%/19.05%

26. Proportion of Revenue from International Student Fees

27. Modeling Demand for university places driving recovery Green shoots in higher education and pathways to higher education Two speed industry Vocational education and training down and staying down

28. Green Shoots 2012 starts, cf 2011 starts, first half, second half Higher Ed -9.8%, -0.7% ELICOS -3.0%, +11.8% Schools -12.3%, +0.7% Other incl Foundation -9.5%, + 3.9% Aggregate excl VET -7.7%, +5.2%

29. VET Commencements in vocational education and training stayed down Private VET commencements -11.7% first half,-13.9% second half TAFE commencements -12.8% first half, -6.1% second half

30. What Others Say English Australia: 2012 divided into two distinct halves, demonstrating quite clearly a reversal of previous three year decline Navitas: demand is continuing to improve for Australian university qualifications following two years of decline RBA February 2013: liaison suggests education exports stabilised after having declined since 2009

31. Modeling Higher education on its way from 36% of enrolments in 2009 to 49% in 2020 VET on its way from 33% of enrolments in 2009 to 16% in 2020 Issues about appetites and capacities in universities

32. Modeling Revenue 2009 (peak) $16.977 billion 2012 (actual) $14.595 billion 2013 (bottom) $13.901 billion 2014 (recovery) $14.393 billion

33. Modeling Revenue

34. Modeling Enrolments 2009 peak 631,000 2012 actual 516,000 2013 model 490,000 2014 bottom 488,000 2015 recovery 504,000 2020 same as 2009 621,000

35. Modeling Higher Education Enrolments 2009 226,000 2010 peak 242,000 2011 equal peak, pipeline, 242,000 2012 actual 231,000 2013 bottom 223,000 2014 recovery 228,000 2015 towards old peak 239,000 2020 appetites/capacities 304,000

36. Modeling Enrolments

38. Timelessness

39. AUIDF Alan Olsen www.spre.com.au 21 March 2013