1. TECHNOLOGY PLANNING IN INDIA
- ‘vision’ for a ‘developed’ nation by 2020
Deepak Bhatnagar
Head
Center for International Trade in Technology (CITT)
Indian Institute of Foreign Trade
New Delhi, India

2. Introduction
The investment in the field of Scientific Research & Development in the country is less than 1% of GDP.
Government is contemplating to increase investment on R&D in the public and private sector to 2% of GDP by the end of 12th Five Year Plan, through various measures which include: 

3. Higher allocation to scientific research,
Setting up of new institutions for science education and research,
Creation of centres of excellence and facilities in emerging and frontline areas in academic and national institutes,
Strengthening infrastructure for R&D in universities,
Encouraging public-private R&D partnerships, 
Grants for industrial R&D projects, and
Income tax relief on R&D expenditure, weighted tax deduction for sponsored research, custom duty exemption on goods imported for use in Government funded R&D projects, tax holiday and national awards for outstanding R&D.

4. 1st - 10th Plan: Outlays/Expenditures of Central Scientific Ministries/Departments/Agencies
(Rs. in crores)
Sl. No.
S&T Deptt./Agencies
1st Plan ( )
2nd Plan ( )
3rd Plan ( )
4th Plan ( )
5th Plan ( )
6th Plan ( )
7th Plan ( )
8th Plan ( )
9th Plan ( )
10th Plan ( ) 1
Deptt. of Atomic Energy (R&D Sector)
27.00
33.10
67.48
167.13
248.98
315.00
600.00 2
Ministry of Earth Sciences/ Deptt. of Ocean Development
110.00
130.00
510.62 3
Deptt. of Science & Technology
58.96
134.87
301.78
640.00 4
Deptt. of Biotechnology
132.00
265.00
675.00 5
Deptt. of Scientific & Industrial Research inclu. CSIR
4.61
14.68
33.04
50.00
81.77
170.00
370.00
655.00 6
Deptt. of Space
128.27
245.80
793.96
Grand Total
41.68
66.14
117.48
436.13
799.65

5. TIFAC- Broad Objectives
Undertake TA/TF studies and TMS reports
Technology watch on global trend
Promotion of key technologies.
… technology development towards commercialisation

6. MAKING THE FUTURE WORK FOR YOU !
T I F A C
Are you confident about…
Future trends: how they may affect you?
Where the new opportunities will be ?
How S&T can help you seize these opportunities?
What you should be doing NOW?
For every person and organization priorities may differ.
But one thing is certain:
We live in a world of change.
The need to anticipate and prepare for the future is crucial.

7. NEED FOR A TECHNOLOGY VISION...
T I F A C
‘Blessed are those, who have a dream or vision,
for, those who have not, are dead while living !’
Need to Manage:
- Technological knowledge to sustain competitiveness in an uncertain business context
- rapid technological change, uncertainty and complexity
- Issue become manifold because of globalization of technology
Technology Management: Broad concepts
Technology scanning
Technology foresight
Technology innovation
Technology evolution and
Technology diffusion
Integration of Technology strategy with Business strategy

8. What is Technology Assessment ?
T I F A C
Technology : “ways and means by which humans produce purposeful material artifacts and effects”
Technology Assessment (TA) : Concept brought out by Emilio.Q.Daddario(1967)
Definitions of TA :
- a form of policy research which provides a balanced appraisal to the policy maker
- a system to ask right questions and obtain correct and timely answers
- in the context of technology management “as a systematic attempt to foresee the consequences of introducing a particular technology in all spheres it is likely to interact with”

9. Technology Forecasting: Genesis
Science- fiction : Futuristic Thinkers
(H.G. Wells, Jules Verne…)
Intuition : Visionaries
(Bertrand Russel, Arthur C.Clarke…)
A Systematic, Quantitative Approach
: Institutionalized
(MITI, OTA, FAST, TIFAC…)

10. “Practical men are influenced by academic scribblers”
- Keynes
Three major sources of technology
- Philosophers or men of speculation
Producers
and Users
- Adam Smith
of machinery

11. Forecasts: built on 3 information bases
What people say:
- Expert opinion, visionaries…
What people do:
- Prototype development, demonstration/pilot plant, new products for market test …
What people have done :
- Past records, trend extrapolations

12. TF : Formal definitions
J.P.Martino : “TF is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques”
M.J.Cetron : “The prediction with a stated level of confidence of the anticipated occurrence of a technological achievement within a given time frame with specified level of support”
Generally expressed as Quantitative probability

13. How Forecasting Helps? Reduced risk and better rates of return:
T I F A C
How Forecasting Helps?
Reduced risk and better rates of return:
- better investment decisions
- faster conversion of knowledge into product
New opportunities:
- breaking free from traditional sectors to diversification
- greater awareness of using technology for business success
More Effective Management:
- flexible organizations; cross-functional teams
- encouraging environment of creativity
- developing appropriate skills
Strategic R&D Planning:
- identifying new markets and opportunities
- choosing how to respond rather than forced into action by competitors.
- new applications for existing research and new areas for research
Government:
- dovetail with the National Planning process and policy interventions
- involve stake holders in decision making process

14. Forecasting Technological Change
T I F A C
Forecasting Technological Change
Prediction of technological trajectories: problematic issue -technological change induced by both incremental and breakthrough innovations
(disruptive innovation e.g. Digital camera)
Traditional forecasting techniques like extrapolation
- failure based on the assumption of a logical link between the past and future
‘S-curve’ is a widely accepted technology life cycle model - to understand the evolution of technology development.
- Tells us about ‘WHAT’ things are,
but not ‘WHY’ things are ?
Existing methods vulnerable in coping with the real turbulent world
Recent studies based on:
Chaos theory : Artificial neural networks
(Clement Wang et al NUS, Singapore)
- Insights from theories of Evolution
(Bowonder and Miyake)

15. Technology Vision 2020
T I F A C
Ambitious exercise (completed in 1996) under the leadership of Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam (the-then Chairman, TIFAC) to identify national priorities for S&T
Involved 500 user agencies and 5000 experts
17 sectors covered
Objectives
Provide national initiatives in S&T to realise the vision of a developed India by 2020
Provide strong basis for policy framework and investment for R&D in Govt. & Private sectors, and
Contribute to the development of integrated S&T policy both at National & State levels.

16. TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020 in 17 SECTORS
Food & Agriculture
Agro-Food Processing
Chemical Industries
Engineering Industries
Strategic Industries
Electronics & Telecommunications
Civil Aviation
Electric Power

17. TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020 in 17 SECTORS
Waterways
Road Transportation
Materials & Processing
Health Care
Life Sciences & Biotechnology
Services
Advanced Sensors and
Driving Forces - Impedances

18. TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020 FOR Well being of all Indians
Global Competitiveness
Technology Development as Business Investment
Meeting the Changing Demand Scenario
Long-Term Technology Forecast to ensure India’s
Economic Growth and Leadership by 2020

19. TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020 Steps followed…
Task Forces constituted for each major sector
Panels constituted for each sub-sector with area specialists as members
Status reports on each sub-sector to bring out current technology status & market estimates
Opinion survey – Brainstorming, Delphi, Nominal Group Technique for future vision
Analysis of responses & scenario papers prepared for future technology directions
Workshop & FINAL Reports

20. DB©2007

21. Some typical issues addressed :
TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020
Some typical issues addressed :
Areas where India can be globally competitive
Spin-offs from the technologies developed in other sectors
Technologies which may emerge in renewed form (Bio-fertilizers, Neem based pesticides, etc.)

22. Some typical issues addressed (contd.)
TECHNOLOGY VISION : 2020
Some typical issues addressed (contd.)
IPR related issues
Management of Technological change
How to make S&T user-friendly?
To obtain a balanced mix of commercial gains & social benefits

23. Technology Vision 2020 (Report on Materials and Processing)
TIFAC
COVERAGE
Metals, Alloys and Surface Engineering
Composite Materials
Glass and Ceramics
Photonic Materials
Polymeric Materials
Nuclear Materials
Super conducting Materials
Bio materials and Devices
Building Materials
DB©2007

24. Technology Vision 2020 (Report on Advanced Sensors)
COVERAGE:
Strategic Importance of Sensors
Mechanical Sensors
Chemical Sensors
Magnetic Sensors
Biosensors
Optic Sensors
Emerging Technological Scenario
Demand for Advanced Sensors
Capabilities in the Area of Advanced Sensors
Suggested Action Plan

25. Technology Vision 2020 (Report on Electronics & Communication)
COVERAGE:
Components
Microelectronics
Photonics / Optoelectronics
Consumer Electronics
Information Technology
Communication
Automation & Robotics
Applications in Social & Rural Sector
Interdisciplinary Emerging Areas

26. REALISING THE VISION - fructifying through the ‘Mission’ approach!
* Vision 2020 documents released by Prime Minister on 2nd August, 1996
- dissemination by TIFAC at various fora (States, Industry, International)
* Planning Commission asked the concerned Ministries to integrate findings with Ninth 5-year Plan of their own sector
* Action Teams constituted to convert Vision into Missions
- generation of specific project proposals
- realisation mechanisms, thru special linkages
* Financing mechanisms of Govt. of India accorded priority to projects identified from Vision recommendations

27. TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020 MISSION PROGRAMMES TIFAC
Agriculture & Agro Food Processing
Upgradation of Road Construction & Transportation Equipment
Upgradation of Textile Machinery
Health Care Services
Upgradation of Science & Engineering Colleges
(Mission REACH)
Targetted Programmes in other Important Areas
© TIFAC-2007, Visit us at & &

28. VISION ON FOOD & AGRICULTURE
* Food Security of required Nutritional quality - most important need for the people of India
* Projection of 360 MT Cereals by 2020 (present MT in 2011)
* Panel Covered :
- resources
- technology
- crop protection & production
- rain fed agriculture
- role of biotechnology
- global impact, public-private sector relationships etc.

29. FOOD & AGRICULTURE : REALISING THE VISION !
Pilot project: one state of India (Bihar)
Mechanism : Motivate farmers thru’ demonstrations, training & services, identifying proper rice varieties, generation of test seeds, balanced fertilizers at nursery stage etc.
Success achieved : over 100% increase in productivity : yield of 5700 to 6100kg/ha (against present level of Kg/ha) in Pusa 834 paddy harvested in early October’99.
Future : try ‘multiplier-effect’ in other states depending on their response.

30. “Dairy Sector can bring about economic and social transformation
AGRO FOOD PROCESSING
* Four areas covered : Milk, Cereals, Fruits and vegetables
MILK :
India : largest milk producer in the world (121.8 MT/annum in 2011; anticipated achievement for year 2012 is MT/annum) but low in productivity
Vision to increase milk yield from 500 to 3000 litres/annum/per cattle
thru’
Technologies for use of farm bulk coolers,
non-conventional energy sources for primary processing
imported cattle breeding, Food & Nutrition, Cattle healthcare etc.
“Dairy Sector can bring about economic and social transformation
in rural India”

31. Agriculture and agro-food processing
Improve productivity, yield and quality through better practices, equipment and inputs
Doubling of productivity for rice & wheat in Bihar, Eastern UP
Milk yield improvement by 20% and bacterial count below EU standards in demonstration projects in Punjab, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh Dairy Development Cooperative Federation Ltd Mobile Milking Machine: First time in India at community level
Need title for the 2nd picture
Vegetable cultivation in poly house at Debal, Uttaranchal

32. INFRASTRUCTURE
* Strong link between availability of adequate infrastructure and Economic
growth (e.g. Food Processing : need for roads, power etc.
* Areas covered : Electric Power, Roads & Waterways
* Technology development efforts needed in :
* Electric Power - clean coal technologies
- efficient coal beneficiation
- direct ignition of pulverized coal
- pressurised fluidized bed combustion (PFBC)
- Fly Ash Utilization techniques
- Integrated Gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
- High Voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission

33. INFRASTRUCTURE
* Roads Provision of structurally and functionally adequate roads
(present and anticipated needs)
- Road Design, Construction, Maintenance & Materials
- Appropriate technologies for rural roads & village connectivity
- Road building machinery
- National Highways and Expressways
* Waterways - Presently, insignificant but lot of potential
- need to modernize existing waterways
- Development of “Smart Waterways”
(sufficient depth & width, navigation round the year)

34. 2 centres for Technology Enhanced Learning
Mission REACH Relevance and Excellence in ACHieving new heights in Technical Education
Launched on 4th October, 2000 by Dr.APJ.Abdul Kalam
32 TIFAC COREs (Centres of Relevance and Excellence)in emerging areas, across the country
2 centres for Technology Enhanced Learning
(e-learning and e-outreach)
Triangular linkage between Academic Institute, Industry and Government(TIFAC/DST)
Unique feature: Industry participation is mandatory (Over 100 industry partners)

35. Other Vision 2020 programmes
6.6 MW power plant based on processed MSW, Hyderabad
Mobile Hospital, Uttaranchal
Weft Set (M/s. Semitroniks, Ahmedabad)
Need titles for all these pictures, including locations / institutions
Renishaw Cyclone for rapid prototyping, PSG Tech, Coimbatore
Multi purpose Loader, Escorts, Faridabad
Agronet Tunnel Facility for tissue culture, TIET, Patiala

36. Science & Technology Projections for Twelfth Five Year Plan (20012-17)
“ India needs more “frugal, distributed, affordable innovation”
Below are some strategy challenges that need to be addressed for strengthening the eco-system and the proposed approaches for the way forward
Enrichment of Knowledge Base
Incentivizing R&D in Public and Private Sector
Improving Governance in S&T Institutions
University, industry, and Scientific Establishment Collaboration
Promoting Collaborations through Clusters
Supportive Financial System
Platform for Best Practices and Innovations:
Improving the Flow of Technology
Intellectual Property Rights
Use of GIS for Development

37. T I F A C
A Global Picture of Technologies - in the 21st century Incremental advance or radical change?

38. Pervasive technologies….
…prospect of remarkable progress
T I F A C
Profound effect on how we live, work and spend our leisure time
Technologies would revolutionalise the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing…
Used wisely- huge benefit to mankind
Used wrongly -lost opportunities and unnecessary risks;
The challenge, is immense:
What would be the cost of failure to embrace dynamic change?
What kind of ethical dilemmas will arise, say from breakthroughs in genetic engg.?
Will new technology create new social divisions?
How will society adapt to harness the technological potential?
How can countries cooperate to maximize benefits of spillovers?

39. The great ‘ Enablers’*…
T I F A C
Six technology areas which may be fundamental shapers of human enterprise:
genetics
energy
materials
brain
information
sixth area (not itself a technology, but will influence changes) will be environmentalism
      * Source: OECD study by Coates & Jarratt, Inc
Technical foundation for the continuing wave of innovation:
- developments in the field of Digital and Genetic information.
These two building blocks- one of calculation and the other of nature:
- likely to unlock vast treasures for both tool builders and users.

40. Genetics Research has established that heritable characteristics
T I F A C
Research has established that heritable characteristics
of all living things, transmitted by a specific class of chemicals called DNA- responsible for all our characteristics:
20th century: contraceptive technology separated procreation from recreation !
21st century: genetic engg will go further and separate
fertilization from the propagation of undesirable characteristics: research will be directed towards preventing, correcting and even designing new drugs to mitigate the effects of adverse genes
genetic basis of individual diseases-leads to Pharmacogenomics
Transgenic plants ( taking DNA from distinctly different species and combining them into new products)
-increased productivity
-modification of plants for nutritional improvement.

41. Energy Technology Greater dependency on multiple sources
T I F A C
Greater dependency on multiple sources
technologies with a goal of massive energy conservation
- more efficient flow of energy
- Superconducting materials : Big Q is when ?
Future Focus: NON-CARBON!!
Two primary sources of non carbon fuels:
Nuclear power ( shift from Uranium to Thorium, Plutonium -FBR )
Solar Energy(photo voltaics-generation & passive solar for hot water)
Wind Energy
One great uncertainty: whether greenhouse warming due to technological activities will prove to be both real and significant;
-if both: imperative to re-engineer the global energy infrastructure :
new means of petroleum extraction, natural gas , gas hydrates
Fuel cells , hydrogen energy expected to come in commercial domain beyond 2040.

42. Materials technology
T I F A C
Designing new materials from scratch with any set of
characteristics we choose
Societal imperatives – greater durability., longer lifetime,Greater use of Recycling, Reclamation and Remanufacturing (3Rs)
Environmental pressures, limited resources and capabilities of engineering will make the three Rs universal.
Movement towards miniaturization and modularity:
- Micro devices will function as sensors, actuators and functioning applications in machines and in living beings as measuring instruments and controls.
Beyond micro-machines lies the more speculative nano-world
(micro-manipulation of atoms and molecules!-Alvin Toffler )
Goal of NT: perhaps duplicate what nature does, with technology :
Bio- mimetrics-development of materials in imitation of or analogous to natural products, is another emerging avenue.

43. Futuristic Materials
T I F A C
Multi layer materials have extensive technological potential -used in applications like high performance coatings, Integrated circuit interconnects,X-ray optics
Around 20 labs in India are involved in R&D work in Nano technology .
Initiatives by TIFAC:
Study on ‘Status of Nano technology in India and Business opportunities in Nano materials’
Study on ‘Synthesis routes for Nano materials’
Energetically stable carbon nano-tube
T-junctions

44. T I F A C
Diamond Memory and More Nano machines Diamond Memory: Imagine a plane the size of your little fingernail, too thin to see with a light microscope that holds the information of a Million, 1- Gigabyte Hard Drives

45. Wish list - Scientific crystal gazing
T I F A C
Wish list - Scientific crystal gazing
Nano technology- Extraordinary from the ordinary
Optic fibre - Web housing showcase
Smart Materials and structures- Lifeless metals ? Forget it
Hybrid Vehicles -More range at half the pollution
Fuel cells -the ultimate energy resource
Hydrogen Technology– Elemental power
Genomics – driving cures, changing attitudes
Biochips- this implant can save your life
Agri sensors – a field of dreams
Dairy Technology- Potential Inc.
Biodegradable plastics- ‘politically correct’ way to a better life

46. 1st - 10th Plan: Outlays/Expenditures of Central Scientific Ministries/Departments/Agencies
(Rs. in crores)
Sl. No.
S&T Deptt./Agencies
1st Plan ( )
2nd Plan ( )
3rd Plan ( )
4th Plan ( )
5th Plan ( )
6th Plan ( )
7th Plan ( )
8th Plan ( )
9th Plan ( )
10th Plan ( ) 1
Deptt. of Atomic Energy (R&D Sector)
27.00
33.10
67.48
167.13
248.98
315.00
600.00 2
Ministry of Earth Sciences/ Deptt. of Ocean Development
110.00
130.00
510.62 3
Deptt. of Science & Technology
58.96
134.87
301.78
640.00 4
Deptt. of Biotechnology
132.00
265.00
675.00 5
Deptt. of Scientific & Industrial Research inclu. CSIR
4.61
14.68
33.04
50.00
81.77
170.00
370.00
655.00 6
Deptt. of Space
128.27
245.80
793.96
Grand Total
41.68
66.14
117.48
436.13
799.65