1. A Model of Hostile Intent: Field Trial Dr Peter Eachus Dr Alex Stedmon Professor Les Baillie Cartagena, Colombia, November 18 th -20 th 2010 unclassified

2. Hostile Intent Most, if not all successful terrorist operations, have involved active hostile reconnaissance, before the attack was launched. Terrorist actions require intelligence, obtained through hostile reconnaissance. Intelligence can be gathered via open sources, e.g. the Internet, web cams, googlemaps, streetview (Times Square bomber). For immediate, timely intelligence, active reconnaissance will be required and it is at this time that the terrorist may be at their most vulnerable. In the era of the suicide terrorist, detecting the terrorist at the moment they are about to carry out their threat, is too late.

3. Mumbai

4. New York

5. Madrid

6. Nairobi

7. Beirut

8. London

9. London Bombers London bombers on their way to carry out the attack on 7/7

10. Hostile Reconnaissance CCTV film of three July 7 bombers doing a dummy run on the Tube a week before the attacks that killed 52

11. Towards a Model of Hostile Intent Essentially, hostile reconnaissance will be experienced as highly stressful for the perpetrator and the purpose of this study is to determine how this stress response is manifested and what influence this might have on the behaviour of the individual concerned. In this field study participants were placed in situations of increasing stress, designed to mimic that found during hostile reconnaissance. After establishing baseline levels of stress within a laboratory situation, participants were then asked to traverse a crowded place within the real world, namely a busy shopping mall. By requiring participants to complete an increasingly demanding task, i.e. simulating hostile intent, stress levels were manipulated and the consequences in terms of behavioural, psychological, physiological and biological status were evaluated.

12. Relationship between Hostile Intent and Parameters of Stress INTENT

13. Hostile Reconnaisance and Stress It seems highly likely that those engaged in hostile reconnaissance will experience high levels of stress, perhaps more so than they do when actively engaged in a terrorist action. Stress can manifest itself: Psychologically.....anxiety, irritabity, depression. Physiologically......heart rate, sweating, pupil dilation, increase in core temperature, respiration. Biologically........... cortisol secretion (stress hormone), production of alarm, or stress pheromones. Behaviourally........speech, paralanguage, but perhaps more gross measures of behaviour, e.g. anomalous movement or responses.

14. The Field Trial Data Collection: Psychological: State Trait Anxiety Inventory Physiological: HR, Respiration, Body Temperature Biological: Salivary Cortisol, Axillary Sweat Behavioural: CCTV Recording

15. The Task Participants were asked to traverse the given route, taking photographs at designated points “as evidence” that they had completed the traverse. They were informed that the traverse was untimed but should take about 15 minutes. Data was recorded during the traverse. Participants paid £20. Participants (20 males) were informed that they were taking part in an experiment investigating stress and shopping. Baseline data was collected at psychophysiological laboratory, University of Salford. Participant paid £10. Participants then transported to nearby shopping mall known as the Trafford Centre. This first traverse was designated Low Intent because of the relatively low levels of stress likely to be induced..

16. Trafford Centre

17. Simulation of Hostile Intent On completion of first traverse all participants were told that they had been successful and after retrieving the psychological, physiological and biological data, they were paid £20. Participants were now offered the opportunity to take part in a second traverse. However this time they were informed that the traverse would be timed and that they had to complete it 10% faster than their first traverse.

18. Inducing Stress As well as having to complete the traverse more quickly, participants were also informed that on the second traverse CCTV operators and plain clothes security staff would be looking for any unusual or obtrusive behaviour. They were also told that two previous participants had been observed because they were almost running in an attempt to beat the deadline (this was not the case). Finally, participants were informed that if they completed the second traverse successfully, i.e. within time, with all the target photographs, and without being observed, then they would be paid a further £70, taking their total payment for participation to £100. However, the participants were also informed that if they were unsuccessful in the second traverse, then not only would they lose the £70, but they would also lose the £20 paid for the first traverse. This was designated the High Intent condition as it was designed to induce high levels of stress, thus simulating hostile reconnaissance.

19. Findings Psychological Parameter The psychological data was obtained using the STAI (State Trait Anxiety Inventory), a self-report measure of psychological state. High scores (max 24) indicated high levels of stress. Increasing STAI Baseline 8.84 Low Intent 10.78 High Intent 13.08 ANOVA F=28.859 P<0.001

20. Findings Physiological Parameters Baseline 79.35 Increasing Heart Rate Beats/min Low Intent 109.15 High Intent 134.67 ANOVA F=71.52 P<0.001

21. Findings Physiological Parameters Baseline 16.25 Increasing Respiration Breaths/min Low Intent 23.89 High Intent 26.97 ANOVA F=73.037 P<0.001

22. Findings Physiological Parameters Baseline 32.90 Increasing Temperature Degrees C Low Intent 32.95 High Intent 33.07 ANOVA Not significant

23. Findings Bioiological Parameters Baseline 0.021802947 Changes in Salivary Cortisol Samples of cortisol obtained at start and end of each of three conditions. Low Intent -0.084963158 High Intent 0.305339368 Paired sample t-test for High Intent t=3.250 P<0.004

24. Findings Bioiological Parameters Stress Pheromone

25. Findings Bioiological Parameters Stress Pheromone ?

26. Findings Bioiological Parameters Stress pheromone precursor detected using Gas Chromotography - Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). The pattern shown was only found in the sweat of participants in High Intent condition. A B CD Figure 2.0: Peaks identified from GC traces as varying between reference and stressed samples. Traces for samples 2,3 and 4 are overlaid.

27. Findings Behavioural Parameter To evaluate the behavioural parameter a group of 15 volunteers was asked to watch the CCTV clips of the participants in the Low Intent and High Intent conditions. At the end of each clip they were asked to rate how “stressed” the participant appeared to be using a 10 point Likert scale, where 1 = low stress and 10 = high stress. No significant differences were found in the ratings for the Low Intent and High Intent CCTV clips.

28. Innocent tourism or hostile intent?

29. Conclusions The research presented here has demonstrated that it is possible to simulate terrorist behaviour during hostile reconnaissance. In this field trial of hostile intent the predicted changes, psychologically, physiologically and biologically have all been confirmed. The behavioural changes, if any, require further study. It is suggested that this validation of the model will prove fruitful in further research that seeks to understand the nature of hostile intent.

30. Thank you for listening Questions ? Cartagena, Colombia, November 18 th -20 th 2010