1. The quality of age data from some recent Arab population censuses First Conference of Al Khawarezmi in the Arab States Ismail Lubbad Doha, 6-8 December 2010

2. Contents  Introduction  Census in ESCWA countries- An overview  Objectives, data source and methodology  Results  Age-sex reporting  Sex ratio with age  Age heaping - digit preference  Conclusion

3. Introduction  Importance of population census data  Stock data for population estimates/projections  Data for sampling frames  Only source of data on small areas (localities)  Long history of census taking in the region  Quality of census data – rarely evaluated  Importance of age and sex data

4. Census taking in ESCWA countries Table 1: Census taking in ESCWA countries Sub -region Census Round 1985-19941995-20042005-2014 Gulf Cooperation Council countries 677 Rest of ESCWA countries 663 Total ESCWA121310 Source: ESCWA calculation staff based on ESCWA counties information Further information TF population census 2010: http://www.escwa.un.org/divisions/main.asp?division=sd

5. Objectives and Methodology Objectives: To examine the accuracy of age- sex reporting and the patterns of digit preference in censuses of population in (ESCWA) Arab countries. Source of data: Tables on age-sex reporting from the two most recent censuses - NSOs Methods: Descriptive analysis – common indices: UN age-sex accuracy index, Whipple-type indices and descriptive charts Software: Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS)

6. Results Table 2: Age-sex non-reporting in population census in ESCWA countries Countries Census Round 1990 Census Round 2000 Census Round 2010 Bahrain 0.1%0.00%… Egypt ……… Iraq 1.3%…… Jordan 0.11%0.08%… Kuwait 0.30%0.25% Oman 0.05%0.04%… Palestine 0.05%… Qatar 0.03%…… Saudi Arabia ……… Sudan 0.1%0.00%… Syrian Arab Republic …0.35%… United Arab Emirates 0.00%…0.09% Yemen …0.06%…

7. Accuracy of age-sex reporting United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index measures sex-specific omission of persons in addition to age misreporting Based on 5 year age groups Criteria of the U.N. INDEX Under 20 → Accurate 20 to 40 → Inaccurate Over 40 → Highly Inaccurate

8. UN age-sex Accuracy index Table 3: Results of UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index in ESCWA countries (nationals only) Age Ratio Score Sex Ratio Score Sex Ratio Age-Sex Accuracy Index MalesFemales Bahrain (2001) 4.65.9 6.4 102.3 29.8 Egypt (2006) 5.25.4 104.8 26.8 Jordan (2004) 3.2 2.4 103.4 13.7 Kuwait (2005) 3.32.2 3.5 97.7 16.1 Oman (2003) 5.55.7 4.1 102.2 23.4 Palestine(2007) 4.84.4 4.1 103.5 21.6 KSA (2004) 4.64.3 4.6 100.6 22.6 UAE (2005) 3.75.1 5 102.5 23.7 Yemen (2004) 6.98.2 4.1 104 27.5

9. Sex ratio 1 sex ratio 2UNI 1UNI 2 % changes Bahrain102.3101.835.432.5-8% Egypt104.8 38.437.4-3% Jordan10910333.516.9-50% Kuwait99.697.738.418.9-51% Oman103.3102.251.338.5-25% Palestine103.510325.818.4-29% KSA102100.649.827.9-44% Syria104.7105.416.516.61% UAE102.3102.543.537.6-14% Yemen..104..39.1-29% Iraq105.899.436.729.7-19% UN age-sex Accuracy index UN age-sex accuracy index (cont…)

10. Patterns of sex ratio with age

12. Age heaping and digit preference Data required: Population by sex and single year age Index of measurement: Whipple's index Criteria f the Whipple's Index <105highly accurate 105-109fairly accurate 110-124approximate 125-174rough >175very rough

13. Age heaping and digit preference Table 4: Totals of Whipple and Myer's Indexes in ESCWA countries Whipple IndexMyer's Index MaleFemaleBoth sexesMaleFemaleBoth sexes Bahrain 100101100 1.763.392.27 Palestine 104106105 2.113.502.79 Qatar 102 2.983.032.58 Syria 1051071064.707.466.04 Yemen 24927126043.4651.2647.19 Jordan 100101 1.862.942.34 Kuwait 105 3.743.133.44

14. Population Pyramid in Yemen 2004

15. Population Pyramid in Syria 2004

16. Population Pyramid in Qatar 2004

17. Conclusion – Looking forward Preliminary results - PC 2010 will enrich the study and give a full picture; Improvement in age reporting in all the countries No problems in age heaping except for Yemen Age sex structure is considered inaccurate in a number of the ESCWA countries

18. Thank You lubbad@un.org