1. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of health- related events or states? Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse? Enduring Epidemiological Understanding: Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population. Synopsis In Module 2, students explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person, place, and time (PPT) are used to generate hypotheses to explain “why” a health-related event or state has occurred. Students begin to uncover and develop the following epidemiological concepts and skills: evaluating PPT information; developing hypotheses to explain that distribution; understanding that there may be more than one credible hypothesis; and recognizing when a particular hypothesis does NOT explain the PPT information. Lesson 2-1: Overview of PPT and What’s My Hypothesis? Lesson 2-2: In the News Lesson 2-3: Drug Abuse by “Person” Race / Ethnicity Lesson 2-4: Drug Abuse by “Place” States in USA Lesson 2-5: Drug Abuse by “Time” Boundary Effect

2. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Module 2 - Hypothesis Generation Lesson 2-2 In the News Content Continuation of themes of using person, place, and time (PPT) to describe how a disease or other health-related condition is described in a population Review of definition of “hypothesis” and explanation of how PPT is used to generate “educated guesses” based on observation Use of news reports to give students practice in sorting clues into “person, place, and time” and identifying hypotheses Big Ideas Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when” PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior. This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.

3. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News 1.How is this disease distributed? Health-related conditions and behaviors are not distributed uniformly in a population. They have unique distributions that can be described by how they are distributed in terms of person, place, and time. 2.What hypotheses might explain the distribution of disease? Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population. 3.Is there an association between the hypothesized cause and the disease? Causal hypotheses can be tested by observing exposures and diseases of people as they go about their daily lives. Information from these observational studies can be used to make and compare rates and identify associations. 4.Is the association causal? Causation is only one explanation for an association between an exposure and a disease. Because observational studies are complicated by factors not controlled by the observer, other explanations also must be considered. 5.What should be done when preventable causes of disease are found? Policy decisions are based on more than the scientific evidence. Because of competing values - social, economic, ethical, environmental, cultural, and political factors may also be considered. Essential QuestionsEnduring Understandings Where are we?

4. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Descriptive Epidemiology Study of the distribution of a disease or other health-related condition Uses epidemiological characteristics of Person, Place, and Time (PPT) Review Basis for formulating hypotheses

5. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Who? Where? When? Person: Place: Time: PPT Sheet Review - Descriptive Epidemiology

6. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News An educated guess An unproven idea, based on observation or reasoning, that can be supported or refuted through investigation Review - Definition of Hypotheses

7. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News In The News

8. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News “Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children”

9. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Sample Article Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children by Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, January 24, 2005; p. A06 Excerpts: Diane Stem of Old Hickory, Tenn., vividly remembers the day she was called home by her distraught husband and daughter: Her 16-year-old son, Ricky Joe Stem Jr., had been found dead in the house with a plastic bag over his head. He had been sniffing Freon from the house's air-conditioning system........ A hidden epidemic is gaining momentum in America, experts say. Children as young as fourth-graders are deliberately inhaling the fumes of dangerous chemicals from a variety of household and office products. Inhalants, as they are known, are widely available and hard to detect, and are fueling a dangerous trend: The most reliable annual survey of drug use among children has found that inhalants are the one group of drugs in which abuse is on the rise...

10. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver June 2001 America-in all parts of the country December 2001 Disease or Other Health-Related Event Descriptive Epidemiologic Clues PersonPlaceTime Children as young as 4 th graders All parts of America December 2001 June 2001 Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver

11. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Hypotheses Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally suggest the idea, or specific techniques, to children who do not know about them Educated Guesses Ignorance may be the bigger problem Parents seem to be in the dark

12. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News The hypothesis will sound like a prediction Be sure to include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health-related effect (type and/or direction) Examples from previous slide and possible re-statements Stating Educated Guesses as Hypotheses “Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally suggest the idea, or specific techniques, to children who do not know about them.” Already stated in hypothesis language “Ignorance may be the bigger problem.” Teens’ misinformation or lack of information on inhalants is a cause of growing use “Parent seem to be in the dark.”Lack of parental awareness contributes to a growing trend of inhalant use among teens.

13. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Teams

14. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Presentation

15. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News CriteriaGot ItGetting ItWill Get It Soon Participation All team members participate Most team members participate Some team members participate Use of Epi Talk All use is appropriate and accurate Most use is appropriate and accurate Some use is appropriate and accurate Disease or Health-Related Event Identified Not identified Descriptive Epi Clues All identified and sorted correctly Most identified and sorted correctly Some identified and sorted correctly Hypotheses All identifiedMost identifiedSome identified Presentation Rubric

16. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News In the News Investigation 2-2 has ended.

17. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Big Ideas in this Lesson (2-2) Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when” PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior. This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health. Re-Cap

18. DrugEpi 2-2 In the News Next Lesson