Presentation on theme: "Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010 Folsom, CA John Smart,"— Presentation transcript:
Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010 Folsom, CA John Smart, President, ASF Slides: accelerating.org/slides
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From STEEPCOP to SEISCBEEPCOP: An Accelaware Set of Horizon Scanning Categories Science (Theoretical, Applied, Prof., Sci. Ed, Sci. Policy) Tech – Engineeringtech (Macro & Nanotech) Tech – Infotech Tech – Sociotech Tech – Cognotech Tech – Biotech Environment (Sustainability, Resources, Impacts, etc.) Economics (Capitalism, Biz-Law, 3BL Accounting, etc.) Politics (Military, Security, Policy, Non-Biz Law, etc.) Culture (Traditions, Media, Education, Religion, Art, etc.) Organizational (Entrepreneurship, Mgmt, Org Dev, etc.) Personal (Relationship, Career, Family, Spirituality, etc.) All twelve categories are important to foresight and change management. The first three, Science, Engineeringtech, and Infotech, seem to be “universal pulls” toward accelerating complexification. All the rest are enablers, shapers, or blocks to that acceleration. Scan with them all to see the big picture!
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 3P’s/CMP/Evo Devo Foresight Model: Six Skills Foresight Professionals Use On the Job Possible Futures (Creating & Imagining the Future) – Evolutionary Foresight 1. Scenarios & Horizon Scanning Alternative Futures, Cultural, Ethnographic, and Religious Foresight (Future Beliefs), Foresight Journalism, Horizon Scanning, Images and Artifacts of the Future, Scenario Development and Backcasting, Science Fiction and Speculation, Visioning and Creative Thinking, Weak Signals, Wildcards 2. Innovation & Entrepreneurship Comparative Analysis, Competitive Intelligence, Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, Finance and Venture Capital, Global Sourcing and Markets, Innovation Studies, Intellectual Property, Leadership, Open Innovation Networks, Research and Development Studies Preferable Futures (Managing & Benefiting in the Future) – Evo Devo Foresight 3. Strategy & Analysis Critical and Evidence-Based Foresight, Cross-Impact Analysis, Decision Analysis & Support, Emerging Issues & Technology Analysis, Foresight Frameworks, Operations Research, Real Options Analysis, Robust Strategies, Scenario Planning and Learning, Strategy Games and Serious Games, Systems Thinking 4. Policy & Planning Collaboration and Facilitation Studies, Democracy Studies, Demographics and Sociology, Economics, Ethics of Emerging Tech, Policy Studies, Political Science, Roadmapping, Strategic and Long-Range Planning, Urban Planning, Values Studies Probable Futures (Predicting & Surviving the Future) - Developmental Foresight 5. Forecasting & Long Bets Acceleration Studies (Learning Curves), Actuarial Science, Complexity, Forecasting, Foresight Metrics & Ratings, Long Bets (Organizational and National), Long-Term Investing, Long-Wave Studies, Modeling & Simulation, Neuroeconomics and Game Theory, Personal Foresight, Prediction Markets, Predictive Surveys (Delphi), Predictive Marketing and Consumer Profiling, Trend Extrapolation 6. Sustainability & Security Socioeconomic Development Studies, Defense and Intelligence Studies, Environmental Studies, International Relations, Resilience Studies, Risk Assessment and Management, Peace/Conflict Studies, Socially Responsible Management, Security and Defense Studies, Sustainability Studies, Triple Bottom Line Accounting, Wargames
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in: Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems Our Universe as a System Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either: 1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit), 2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or 3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit). Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes Can Be Seen in All Complex Systems
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems Normal curve Power law S curve
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology How S Curves Get Old 1. STEM Resource limits in a niche S patial T emporal E nergy M aterial 2. Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more STEM resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Limits to Biocomplexity: Declining Marginal Adaptation from Genetic Differentiation Only so much complexity can develop “on top” of DNA! Thesis: The further out one gets from the first living cell, the less developmental freedom remains (legacy code/path dependency). Are humans near the end of the genetic line? Consider: We went developmentally “backward” (heterochrony) to emerge We emerged not due to incremental changes in variety of genes, but instead due to a rare punctuated change in a tiny number of brain genes 4-6 million years ago (HAR sequences) that improved our nongenetic (language) abilities.HAR sequences Since then, brain-expressed genes in humans clearly follow a terminal differentiation dynamic. As Wang et al. (2006) Bakewell et al. (2007) and others report, evolutionary change in human brain-expressed genes has slowed down both in absolute terms and relative to chimps since our split six million years ago. Smart, John 2001. Limits to Biology: Performance Limitations on Natural and Engineered Biological Systems. http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html Wang, Hurng-Yi et al. 2006. Rate of Evolution in Brain-Expressed Genes in Humans and Other Primates, PLoS Biology 5(2):e13 Bakewell, Margaret A. et al. 2007. More genes underwent positive selection in chimp evol. than in human evol. PNAS 4.17.2007. http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html
Automation and Artificial Intelligence Technology as a ‘Learning System’
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Artificial Intelligence: Coming Of Age AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon. Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Physical Sciences - Evo Devo Physics (Qantm vs Rel.) - STEM Compression/FERD, Inner Space as Developmental Physics - Intelligent Black Holes & Multiverse Chemical Sciences - Evo Devo Chemistry - Biogenesis. RNA+Lipids as only and ubiquitous portal path to cells. - Tree of terminal differentiation for ~10M Chemical Species Biological Sciences - Evo-Devo Biology subsumes Darwinian evolutionary theory - Convergent evolution, astrobio as ecosystem macrodevelopment - Biological scaling, terminal diff, emergence & singularity theory. Social Sciences - Evo Devo Memetics - Developmental models of morality - More predictive use of power law, S, Log-normal, Kuznets, other curves Engineering Sciences - Evo Devo Technetics - Experience curves (cascaded S- curves) as a science of human- mediated machine learning - Theory of technological immune systems Computer & Info Sciences - Evo Devo Computation (eg, CA’s) - Theory of tech and dev. singularities. - Computational theories of complexity, morality, immunity - Einstein of information theory? 21st Century Developmental Futures: Science
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Nanotech & Energy - Exp. nanocomp. growth (SETs, spintronics, optical, quantum). - Exponential nanoenergy growth (PV, fuel cells, nanocapacitors) - Human energy intensity saturation Networks & Computing - Exp. network, sensor, platform growth (transparency, capacity) - Exp. growth, var. & specialization in parallel computing - Better bio-inspired computing. AI & Robotics - CI, Cybertwins and Valuecosm. - Human-surpassing robots (humbots, robocars). - Modular singularities leading to a generalized tech singularity. Biotech & Bioinformatics - Massively more bioinformatics. - Better agrobiotech, synthetic bio. - Marginally better biosims and reverse engineering. - Biotech remains underwhelming & a net money-losing invest. sector. Medicine & Enhancement - Massively better tech enhancement (brain & body implants, wearables). - Marginally better bioenhancement (gene therapy, drugs etc.). - Ever-declining longevity advances. Space - Declining info from astronomy and cosmology, but not astrobiology. - Stratellites, telerobots, end of primates-in-cans-in-vacuum 21st Century Developmental Futures: Technology
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Politics, Policy, Rights, Security, Civil & Constitutional Law Global transition from illiberal to liberal democracies (Zakaria) as networks, transparency, and valuecosm advances. Increasingly transparent society (anonymity disappears, privacy protections increase). Ever-rising entitlements, strong civics education (Scandinavian democracies). Eventual equitocracy (Lightman). Ever-rising ‘victimless’ freedoms (Inglehart) American anomaly (nonparliamentary democracy) becomes parliamentary. Zakaria, The Future of Freedom 2007, The Post-American World, 2008 Smith, The American Anomaly: US Politics and Govt. in Comparative Perspective, 2007
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Immunity Platform: Broadband Internet Today Still a ‘Wild West’ of Anonymity. Need: Secure Digital ID Packet transparency ISP Accountability Far better cybercrime policing Speed! (100X). Soon speed will be in national interest – Turnpike analogy: mandated highways, mandated FTTH
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Networked Weapons: Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters) Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins) Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours) 2005+: Video recording. Networked Weapons (NWs) convert security systems from intrinsically offensive intrinsically defensive assets. GPS-on-a-chip data recorders are doable today (but still expensive). Localizers later. 30 second ping intervals, like cellphone. Military, large weapons first? Global handguns next? Consumer versions with 911, audio, and video necklace (2025?) People who buy guns for defense want to be localized. Get a percentage using it voluntarily, have option to require it later.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Inevitables’ (Portal Pathways) Experience Great Evolutionary Variation (Unique, Creative Transitions) Example: Guns in Japan vs. Elsewhere The Japanese govt. was strong enough to ban guns for centuries. First guns (arquebus, right) came with Portuguese in 1543, used in many massed battles. By 1600 Japan had world's best guns, but they were increasingly regulated and finally banned by centralized samurai clan (Tokugawa clan) for 250 years. As inevitables, guns eventually had to reemerge. But they did so on Japanese terms. Japan retains a strong police force and collectivist society today. As of 2006 there are only 175K registered owners of 340K guns in Japan. In US: ~40 million gun owners, ~180 million guns. Japan has the lowest gun crime rate of any industrialized nation (93 gun deaths in 1998, vs 36,000 in US. Japan has 130M vs. US 300M citizens). All 175K gun owners were mass-checked after 2007 Sasebo shooting ‘rampage’ (2 deaths, 6 injuries). 90 were ‘declared unfit to own’ guns. 2008 laws prevent stalkers, spouse abusers, suicidal, and bankrupts from owning guns, including hunting guns, for an extended period of time. Fifteen year sentences for owning illegal guns, death penalty for org. crime murder by gun, police raids on suspected illegal gun owners, etc. Major observation: Every other industrialized nation (Australia, Europe, etc.) is trending strongly in this postmilitary, postviolent direction (Pinker, Myth of Violence). Just a few outliers (US, Brazil, Mexico, Estonia, etc.) remain. Gun story foretells a Planetized level of social integration and immunity.
Security and Law Enforcement Leadership and Org. Development Some Offensive and Defensive Strategies in a World of Accelerating Change