Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010  Folsom, CA John Smart,

Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010  Folsom, CA John Smart, President, ASF Slides: accelerating.org/slides

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in: 1.Science, Technology, Business, and Society (STBS), using 2.Universal, Global, Societal, Organizational, and Personal (UGSOP) scales of analysis. Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do ▪We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of 2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future. ▪Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems – Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical- digital interface.

Acceleration Studies An Important, Understudied, Universal, Human Historical, and Technological Process

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2008 Accelerating.org© 2007 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On An unexplained physical phenomenon. (Don’t look for this in your current physics or information theory texts…) A ‘Developmental Spiral’

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Are You Accelaware? Free energy rate density values in hierarchically emergent CAS. Free Energy Rate Density (Φ) Substrate(ergs/sec/gm) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 Planets (Early) 75 Ecosystems, Plants 900 (10^2) Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4) Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5) Modern Engines10^5 to 10^8 Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10 Pentium II of the 1990's 10^11 Global AI of the 21st C10^12+ Cosmic Evolution, Eric Chaisson, 2001

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Developmental Spiral Homo Habilis Age2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age40,000 yrs Agricultural Age7,000 yrs Empires Age2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060 © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. The curve is quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. And superexponential. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution. Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD, Angus Maddison, 2007 © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density). © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit All Kinds of Exponential ‘Learning Curves’ in Human-Technology Systems Computing (Moore’s law, 1.5-2 years) Digital Storage – Hard and Flash Disks (Kryder’s law, 2 years) Computer Graphics (polygon prod.) (Smith’s law, 2 years) Wired Bandwidth (Gilder’s, Nielsen’s law, 2 years) Wireless Bandwidth Growth (Cooper’s law, 2.5 years) GPS- and Video-equipped Cellphone Growth (1.5 years) Network Address Density (Poor’s law, 2 years) Flat Panel Display Size (Nishimura’s law, 2 yrs) Electronic Systems Miniaturization (5.4 years) Algorithmic Efficiency (Ebrahimi’s law, 5-6 years) Some learning curves are flat (battery density) all are bottlenecks to breakthroughs (solar PV efficiency, desalination, etc.). Bruce Henderson, Boston Consulting, 1960’s. The price/performance ratios of many productive processes get exponentially cheaper with time and S&T progress: © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Data grows even faster than processing power and storage. All these grow slightly superexponentially, believe it or not. The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil, 2005 The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, John Gantz, IDC, 2008 ▪Computer power and storage double every 18-24 months. ▪Created, captured and replicated data doubles every 14-18 months. ▪By 2011 we’ll be throwing away half the digital data we generate. ▪A flood of underused capacity in processing, even more in data. Developing the algorithms to use all this power, storage, and data is the challenge. For now, humans are by far the best algorithms we’ve got. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… But Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, not human-created complexity is the main dynamic here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory. The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999 “Acceleration is a rigged game.” © 2010 Accelerating.org

Foresight An Emerging Discipline

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org UGSOP – Five Useful Scales of Analysis We can conduct foresight on five scales of analysis, starting “big picture” and moving increasingly “local”: 1. Universal systems (science, systems theory, and spirituality) 2. Global systems (technology, environment, and global problems) 3. Societal systems (socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural) 4. Organizational systems (entrepreneurship, management, cooperation, activism, family) 5. Personal systems (aesthetics, self-development, tools, health, wealth, other social impact)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org From UGSOP to STEEPCOP: Creating a Good Set of Horizon Scanning Categories It is helpful to consider eight foresight scanning categories: 1. Science issues (general science, general systems theory, cognition science and systems theory) 2. Technology issues (computing, engineering, automation, virtualization, transparency, biotech) 3. Environment issues (resources, commodities, energy, biodiversity, pollution, catastrophes, sustainability) 4. Economics issues (entrepreneurship, capitalism, globalization, aid and development) 5. Political issues (democracy, sustainability, rights, migration, governance, law, defense, crime) 6. Social – Cultural issues (education, media, religion, demographics) 7. Social – Organizational issues (organizational, social activism, subcultures) 8. Social – Personal issues (personal, relationships, psychology, family, aesthetics, health) U G S O P

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From STEEPCOP to SEISCBEEPCOP: An Accelaware Set of Horizon Scanning Categories Science (Theoretical, Applied, Prof., Sci. Ed, Sci. Policy) Tech – Engineeringtech (Macro & Nanotech) Tech – Infotech Tech – Sociotech Tech – Cognotech Tech – Biotech Environment (Sustainability, Resources, Impacts, etc.) Economics (Capitalism, Biz-Law, 3BL Accounting, etc.) Politics (Military, Security, Policy, Non-Biz Law, etc.) Culture (Traditions, Media, Education, Religion, Art, etc.) Organizational (Entrepreneurship, Mgmt, Org Dev, etc.) Personal (Relationship, Career, Family, Spirituality, etc.) All twelve categories are important to foresight and change management. The first three, Science, Engineeringtech, and Infotech, seem to be “universal pulls” toward accelerating complexification. All the rest are enablers, shapers, or blocks to that acceleration. Scan with them all to see the big picture!

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Foresight Development: Twelve Types of Futures Thinking Social Types Preconventional Futurist Personal Futurist Imaginative Futurist Agenda-driven Futurist Consensus-driven Futurist Professional Futurist Methodological Types Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist Evo-devo Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological Futurist See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.htmlaccelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html \Fu"tur*ist\, n. One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org 3P’s/CMP/Evo Devo Foresight Model: Three Fundamental Foresight Skills Foresight skills can be classified with the 3P’s Foresight model, depending on if they are about “Possible, Preferable, and Probable” Futures. The model comes from Roy Amara, President and CEO (1970-1990) of one of the first foresight think tanks, the Institute for the Future, founded in 1968.Roy AmaraInstitute for the Future An alternative name, based on the primary mental skills involved, is the CMP Foresight Skills model, as it is about: 1. Creating & Imagining a range of Possible futures 2. Managing & Benefiting from Preferable futures. 3. Predicting & Surviving the most Probable futures It is also an Evo Devo Foresight model, when we consider the physical processes involved (evolutionary, developmental, and a mix of the two).

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 3P’s/CMP/Evo Devo Foresight Model: Six Skills Foresight Professionals Use On the Job Possible Futures (Creating & Imagining the Future) – Evolutionary Foresight 1. Scenarios & Horizon Scanning Alternative Futures, Cultural, Ethnographic, and Religious Foresight (Future Beliefs), Foresight Journalism, Horizon Scanning, Images and Artifacts of the Future, Scenario Development and Backcasting, Science Fiction and Speculation, Visioning and Creative Thinking, Weak Signals, Wildcards 2. Innovation & Entrepreneurship Comparative Analysis, Competitive Intelligence, Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, Finance and Venture Capital, Global Sourcing and Markets, Innovation Studies, Intellectual Property, Leadership, Open Innovation Networks, Research and Development Studies Preferable Futures (Managing & Benefiting in the Future) – Evo Devo Foresight 3. Strategy & Analysis Critical and Evidence-Based Foresight, Cross-Impact Analysis, Decision Analysis & Support, Emerging Issues & Technology Analysis, Foresight Frameworks, Operations Research, Real Options Analysis, Robust Strategies, Scenario Planning and Learning, Strategy Games and Serious Games, Systems Thinking 4. Policy & Planning Collaboration and Facilitation Studies, Democracy Studies, Demographics and Sociology, Economics, Ethics of Emerging Tech, Policy Studies, Political Science, Roadmapping, Strategic and Long-Range Planning, Urban Planning, Values Studies Probable Futures (Predicting & Surviving the Future) - Developmental Foresight 5. Forecasting & Long Bets Acceleration Studies (Learning Curves), Actuarial Science, Complexity, Forecasting, Foresight Metrics & Ratings, Long Bets (Organizational and National), Long-Term Investing, Long-Wave Studies, Modeling & Simulation, Neuroeconomics and Game Theory, Personal Foresight, Prediction Markets, Predictive Surveys (Delphi), Predictive Marketing and Consumer Profiling, Trend Extrapolation 6. Sustainability & Security Socioeconomic Development Studies, Defense and Intelligence Studies, Environmental Studies, International Relations, Resilience Studies, Risk Assessment and Management, Peace/Conflict Studies, Socially Responsible Management, Security and Defense Studies, Sustainability Studies, Triple Bottom Line Accounting, Wargames

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org CMP is an Integral Foresight Skills Framework I (Individual/Self) Creativity-Driven Futures It (Organizational/Contractual) Benefit-Driven Futures Creating, Imagining Tech, Culture, Art, Philos Benefiting, Analysis Econ-Political We (Social/Kinship) Values-Driven Futures Its (Global/Species) Survival-Driven Futures Planning, Policy Social-Political Predicting, Sustaining Science, Systems The CMP foresight skills map well to Wilber’s (1996) four quadrants of life experience. They are a balanced and comprehensive foresight framework. Preferable Futures Possible Futures Probable Futures

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Learn to be an Integral Foresight Professional Creating & Imagining "Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want" Benefiting & Analysis "Objectifying and analyzing my progress toward a better future." Planning & Policy "Getting consensus and forming policy and plans for the future we want." Predicting & Sustaining "Predicting and sustaining how the system is moving toward the future." Tips for Foresight Practice Learning how and when to use each of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' foresight professional. Neglect any of these and you will have an incomplete, underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state ignorantly that "the future cannot be predicted." But the survival of any living system depends on accurate prediction, and science and history reveal extensive predictability that we discover both quantitatively and intuitively. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. As another example, there are also foresight advocates who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans, keeping them ungrounded. Achieving competence in all four skill areas is necessary if one is to be an ‘integral‘ foresight professional with broad social and process effectiveness. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Jim Dator’s Four Futures: Each Have Value They Also Represent Four Classic Political Dialogs Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press. Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change Right wing Continuation (Economic Issues) Limits & Discipline (Social Issues) Left wing Continuation (Social Issues) Limits & Discipline (Economic Issues) Up wing Transformation (Selective Issues) Down wing Decline & Collapse (Selective Issues) © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Cognitive Diversity in Small Groups Diversity and Optimality (1998). Lu Hong, Scott E. Page, Dept. of Econ, Syracuse U, and Dept. of Econ., U. of Iowa, 27 p. A general [computational] model of diverse problem solvers of limited abilities. We use this model to derive two main results: (1) a collection of diverse, bounded problem solvers can locate optimal solutions to difficult problems and (2) a collection of problem solvers of diverse abilities tends to jointly outperform a collection of high ability problem solvers, where a problem solver's ability equals her expected individual performance. See also: Symbiotic Intelligence Project Norman Johnson, LANL http://ishi.lanl.gov/ Diversity is as important as ability for: Poorly defined problems (nonlinear optimization, prediction, horiz. scanning…) Innovation What else?

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Psychological Foresight Tools: StrengthsFinder (and other Psych Testing Rubrics) Peter Drucker: Individuals should discover and focus on building their best strengths, much more than fixing their weaknesses, to make their best and happiest contribution to the world. Weaknesses in turn can be best managed by: 1. Being aware of strengths you don’t have 2. Joining strengths-complementary teams 3. Allowing others to lead from their different strengths 4. Building situational intelligence (routines, tools, brief courses, etc.) to keep you from getting tripped up by your weaknesses. Gallup’s StrengthsFinder (and other psych profiling assessments like MBTI, DiSC, etc.) are predictive futures tools. How validated are they? (Gallup lists 34 strengths, large polling set) How complete are they (strengths and weaknesses, integral)? When will they be a required part of our educational, hiring (AMA: only 39% of U.S. companies use psych testing in hiring, mostly still minor, not yet open source), and assessment processes? We are still very early in this process. Major opportunity ahead. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Prediction/Idea/Decision Markets and the Wisdom of Crowds Aggregation of opinions is the new frontier for prediction/ innovation/ decisionmaking. Google realized there was hidden opinion order in an apparently chaotic net. PageRank captured that order, created much more relevant search. Avoids bias. Michael Jensen, HBS, “Forecasting is paying people to lie.” Sample Internal Markets: Eli Lilly. Drug efficacy and market size. Siemens. Software project length. Google. Over 200 markets (experimental) Microsoft. Software development. Hewlett-Packard. Sales projections. Three Requirements: 1.Cognitive Diversity (“The Difference”) 2.Independence 3.Aggregation Tools (still primitive) Real Money Markets:Play Money/Reputation Markets:

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit What Today Would Have Surprised Most Americans Living in 1950? 1. Electronics Miniaturization, Digitization, and Virtualization – Transistor, IC, laser, fiber optics, cell phones, personal computers, internet, comm. satellites, transparency technology, computer graphics, virtual worlds. Could we have imagined the power and pervasiveness of digital life? 2.Decline of U.S. Mfg., Rise and Resiliency of Services and Intangibles Sector – Economic resiliency (no major depression since 1930’s), intangible assets, microcredit. Could we have imagined the U.S. with less than 15% employment in manufacturing (12%) and agriculture (1.4%) and still the leading world power? 3.Egalitarianism, Pluralism, and Globalization (Network Society) – Civil rights movement, women’s rights and work parity, contraception, reproductive rights, sexual revolution, gay rights, youth rights, 100,000 Global NGOs, multiculturalism, multireligiosity, undocumented immigration, global trade interdependence, EU, NAFTA 4.Peaceful End of Communism, Decline of Militarism and Violence – State capitalism (China, Singapore), nuclear disarmament, WMD nonproliferation, loss of superpower influence, European postimilitarism, decline of wars, genocides, homicide, crime, rise of asymmetric (non-state) conflict 5.Limits to Growth, Environmentalism and Health Movements – Global population explosion, MDC population decline, nuclear power limitations, no return to Moon for almost 50 years (1972-2017), ocean overfishing, global CO2 spike, sustainable business, fundamentalist backlash/Terrorism, smoking decline, health care cost burden 6.Consequences of Increased Personal Freedom and Affluence – Obesity/diet industry, drug addiction, prolonged adolescence/youth culture, decline of marriage, celebrity/entertainment culture, public education standards erosion, ADD/ADHD, consumer debt Yet each of these was eloquently anticipated by someone. Today, we have wisdom of the crowds/networks/early wikis, collab. intelligence, prediction markets, etc. [Adapted from Mar 2007 APF Survey by Peter Bishop. Profuturists.com] © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit What Would Not Have Surprised 1950’s Americans? Age of Automation – Process automation, industrial robotics, mega-scale engineering, and material abundance (“The American Way”) Multinational Corporate Economy – More powerful than most governments, able to grow faster, employ technology more aggressively, periodic economic bubbles (Internet), fraud (S&L, Enron), DJIA over 12,000, GNP growing 3-10% year and accelerating. Growth in Size and Plutocracy of Government – Largest employer, special interest lobbies, campaign finance dysfunction, national security industry, erosion of states rights Urban Decline and Renewal Cycle – Suburbia, decline of urban core, gangs, gentrification, new urbanism (Repeat of Manchester in 1800’s). Is evolutionary surprise in the human social space decreasing? Frank Fukuyama, John Horgan, myself would argue: In Human Space, Yes. But Not in Tech Space. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org A Century of Foresight Scholarship, But Still No General Theory of Foresight Fundamental Questions Remain: What is predictable? What is intrinsically unpredictable? What long-range forces act on complex systems, besides natural selection? Does history have directionality? Recent scientific ideas, such as evo devo theory, provide the beginnings of a framework for answers to such questions.

Evolution and Development Two Fundamental Models of Change

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Evolution vs. Development: Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins: Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same. The Lesson: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes. Both are fundamental to universal complexity.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Phase Space ‘Opening’ “ Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Evo Devo (Intersection) For more: Evodevouniverse.com/wiki/projectEvodevouniverse.com/wiki/project Some change is: Experimentation (Evo) Adaptation/Selection (EvoDevo) Optimizing/Dominating (Devo) Learn to tell the difference.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb: Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change A few examples: ▪Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dicty DNA) change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved. ▪Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A very few are fated to a particular location early in development. ▪Almost all ideas and actions in an organization will not persist. A special few become stable strategies seen in all orgs of that type. ▪Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing. ▪The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system (organism, organization, technology, species, society) involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes. ▪A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes. 5% Devo 95% Evo

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in:  Physical Systems  Chemical Systems  Biological Systems  Societal Systems  Technological Systems  Our Universe as a System Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either: 1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit), 2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or 3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit). Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes Can Be Seen in All Complex Systems

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems Normal curve Power law S curve

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both Seem Fundamental) Evo devo theory suggests that both Conservative and Liberal platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues Democrats are Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Some Limits and Benefits of Models Limits: Biased. “These are the most important factors”. Oversimplified. There are other important factors. Abstract. They may include false elements. Inaccurate. They may not reflect reality. Benefits: Consensual. They help us see what the group sees, not just what we see. Clarifying. They show categories, forces, interactions we may have overlooked. Balancing. They help us pay attention more across the spectrum of “generally accepted importance.” Focusing. They help us look better at the things we are seeing (drill deep in any subject).

STEM Compression: An Ever-Growing Efficiency and Density of Sci-Tech-Intelligence Systems “The Engine of Accelerating Change”

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Space, Time, Energy, Matter  Info. & Comp. Increasingly Understood  Poorly Known STEM Efficiency/Compression/Density is the ever decreasing STEM resources required for any standard physical process or computation. STEM Efficiency is the “engine” of accelerating change. “STEM Efficiency is Doing More, Better, with Less.” We Live in a STEM+IC Universe

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology How S Curves Get Old 1. STEM Resource limits in a niche S patial T emporal E nergy M aterial 2. Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more STEM resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit STEM Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Our machines are stunningly more STEM efficient with each new generation. Our main candidates for future computational technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing, reversible logic, etc.) require little or no energy. We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient, sustainable, and virtual cities. Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the developed world. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Seeing STEM Efficiency and Density Increasing Everywhere in the World Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > PayPal Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, eBay) Local Community Third Spaces (Starbucks, Hotels) © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit STEM Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Technological (dominant since 1920-50) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed) Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Pluralism examples: 50,000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world." Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Smart’s Laws of Technology 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2.Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers). © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit As There is a Hype Cycle for Almost Any Technology: Use “Other People’s Innovation” Wherever You Can. © 2010 Accelerating.org Cumulative Production/Experience (Not Time) Capacity/Impact  95% of the time, you want to be a second mover / “fast follower”. (Evo) Jump in or buy companies at the trough (Big co. acquisition strategy).  5% of the time, you want to be a first mover / “pioneer”. (Devo) Go early correctly and you’ll get lock-in (Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook…) What immature tech products or services do you want to bet on next? As a fast follower or a pioneer? Are you too early or already too late? The Well-Timed StrategyThe Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro, 2009; Mastering the Hype Cycle, Fenn & Raskino, 2008Mastering the Hype Cycle

Limits of Biology Parts of Us Are Slower and Harder to Change Than Others

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Limits of Top-Down Control: Engineering Smartness is Very Hard to Do “Doogie Howser” Mouse. Extra copies of NMDA receptor 2B (NR2B) improved long term potentiation (LTP). They had better memories but were more neurotic (sensitive to pain). Intelligence breeding in hunting dogs, horses, and other domestics has had very little effect vs. wildtype animals (“dumb” Pointer vs. Wild Dog). All neuropharmacology always has a strong dose response and receptor downregulation, and it all causes long-term damage. Some of this damage is adaptive (anxiolytics, antidepressants, etc.) Domestic PointerAfrican Wild Dog © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Limits of Top-Down Control: Growth Genes and Antagonistic Plieotropy Clip a promotor for a growth hormone gene into … a frog and you will get a bigger frog a mouse and you get a bigger mouse with growth dysregulation, including cancer a pig and you get the same-sized pig with acromegaly (bone growth problems) and arthritis. More complex organisms have more evolutionary but fewer developmental differentiation abilities. A lot more legacy code, a lot less flexibility! Xenopus laevis Mus musculusSus domesticus © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Limits to Biocomplexity: Declining Marginal Adaptation from Genetic Differentiation Only so much complexity can develop “on top” of DNA! Thesis: The further out one gets from the first living cell, the less developmental freedom remains (legacy code/path dependency). Are humans near the end of the genetic line? Consider: We went developmentally “backward” (heterochrony) to emerge We emerged not due to incremental changes in variety of genes, but instead due to a rare punctuated change in a tiny number of brain genes 4-6 million years ago (HAR sequences) that improved our nongenetic (language) abilities.HAR sequences Since then, brain-expressed genes in humans clearly follow a terminal differentiation dynamic. As Wang et al. (2006) Bakewell et al. (2007) and others report, evolutionary change in human brain-expressed genes has slowed down both in absolute terms and relative to chimps since our split six million years ago. Smart, John 2001. Limits to Biology: Performance Limitations on Natural and Engineered Biological Systems. http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html Wang, Hurng-Yi et al. 2006. Rate of Evolution in Brain-Expressed Genes in Humans and Other Primates, PLoS Biology 5(2):e13 Bakewell, Margaret A. et al. 2007. More genes underwent positive selection in chimp evol. than in human evol. PNAS 4.17.2007. http://www.accelerationwatch.com/biotech.html

Automation and Artificial Intelligence Technology as a ‘Learning System’

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Understanding Process Automation Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Artificial Intelligence: Coming Of Age AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon. Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence: Automated Trading Comes of Age As of 2005, automated computer trading models (algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now execute more than half of all U.S. stock trades. From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC let go of half their human traders, while increasing trading volume 160%. BusinessWeek, 4.18.2005 All major brokers are spending millions on this technology. Minor brokers coming next. We are now seeing the beginning of the AI Age in the financial community. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Robo sapiens AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down) “Huey and Louey” Aibo Soccer © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Biologically-Inspired Technology and Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms, developmental genetic programming, belief networks, support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc.) When such systems become: Strongly biologically-inspired Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous) Leading strategies for creating complex systems Only then may the “technological singularity” be near. For more, attend: © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary system? Select for symbiosis. Look at how we do it in domesticated animals (10,000 years, 5,000 breeding cycles). How many breeds of dogs and cats can you trust with small children? Military will always have the warbots (narrowly trustable) Most breeds of robotic systems will be generally trustable, all will be trustable for their missions, or we won’t build them using evolutionary processes. Boston Dynamics BigDog © 2010 Accelerating.org

Globalization, Networks, and Immunity Opportunities and Issues of Accelerating Change

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization “America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.” Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000). © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Network Economy 1.0 Remittances (From Guest Workers in U.S. and Canada) Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID) Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America as of 2003, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Network Economy 1.0 Remittances (From Guest Workers in U.S. and Canada) Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID) Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, and other continually emigrating (“brain drain”) nations. Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005 © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor The Network of the 1880’s Built mostly by hard- working immigrants © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IT Globalization (2000-2020): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young IT developers in India, Asia, third- world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Likely Network Society Developments: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Education divide may close next (post- Conversational Interface, post-2020) Income divide may close next. Developed world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global workforce wages since 1990’s*. Power divide is likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005 © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Gapminder.org: The Global Income Gap Is Closing Global marginal income distribution is normalizing. Is this a technology trend? 1970: Isolated economies 2000: Connected, flattening

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier Annual average GDP growth of 9.5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!) Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc. 1.5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet.” High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour 45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories 20,000 European Contract Factories 15,000 U.S. Contract Factories © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36 million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us. From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail e-commerce (business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5 million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4X higher than China’s. In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than 6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China already had the single largest population of online gamers. Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future.” © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Modified 3D Persistent Worlds Global Collaboration and Coexperience Environments Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others Streaming video coming 2008. Future Salon in Second Life Synthetic Worlds, 2005 © 2010 Accelerating.org

The Metaverse, the Conversational Interface, and the Valuecosm Potential Major Next-Gen Developments

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Digital Transparency: Gmail, Lifelogs Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into intelligence. Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it. Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of lifelogs, systems for auto-recording, archiving indexing, searching all life experience. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From the Metaverse to Metahumanity: Evolutionary Development of the Web Web 1.0Read Mainly (Graphical UI) Web 2.0Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI) Web 3.0Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW) Web 4.0Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm) Web 5.0Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI ‘Tech and Social Singularity’) We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback. Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude). Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in. Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.orgMetaverse Roadmap (to 2025) Web Metaverse Metahumanity Metaverseroadmap.org © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality, Collective Intelligence Wearcam.org’s first-gen ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) iPhone (Apple 2007) © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2012-2019 DateAvg. Query Platform 1998 1.3 wordsAltavista 2005 2.6 wordsGoogle 2012 5.2 wordsGoogleHelp 2019 10.4 wordsGoogleBrain Average spoken human-to-human complex query is 8-11 words. Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward Halevy et. al. 2009. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, Intell. Sys. 24(2):8-12. © 2010 Accelerating.org Siri.com. Amazing NLP for phones today.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020? Ananova, 2000 “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2010 Accelerating.org Milo (and Milly): The Faces of Xbox Natal. Conversational Avatars for Kids. ▪A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines. ▪Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence). ▪Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week. ▪A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Tablet Form Factor as a Developmental Optimum: What Uses Do You Predict? Which Will Emerge Next? © 2010 Accelerating.org What are the truly inevitable developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote, #2. e-Reading, #3 Video Viewing, #4 Notepad/Clipboard.  There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.  25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.  Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television. Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best multiuse design. June 2010 Will Google get this done? A perfect YouTube front end. Apple iPad: No Apple TV. Too little, too closed.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology. A time when: ▪Complex things can “speak our language.” ▪Our technologies become very responsive to our needs and desires. ▪Humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. ▪We will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.” © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Symbiont Networks: The Extended Digital Self A Post 2015 Emergence? When we have an early Web 3.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect… 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7. A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders). Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation. New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.). Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement era begins. Fantastic new subcultural diversity (geek symbionts, futurist symbionts, Quaker symbionts, Shoppers United symbionts, etc.) Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press.The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Circa 2030: The Valuecosm A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long-term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Your Cybertwin – Your Digital Self: Helping You Now, Helping Others Later Greg Panos and his Digital Mom PersonaFoundation.org “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: ▪When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.” ▪When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition… of you. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Digital Self: Social, Economic, and Political Implications Some Challenges - particularly early:  Data Security and Privacy  Predictive Marketing and Profiling  Debt Slavery and Overconsumption  New Forms of Crime and Fraud  Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)  Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)  New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?) Some Opportunities - particularly later:  Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)  Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)  Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety  Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)  Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)  Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)  Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Digital Self: Biggest Single Catalyst We’ll See in Our Lifetimes What Do You Want to Improve?  IT/Infrastructure Mgmt  Identity Management  Social Networks  Video Management  Marketing  Education  Knowledge Management  Performance Management  Talent Management  Innovation  Social Responsibility  Environmental Sustainability  Organizational Development  Collective Foresight © 2010 Accelerating.org

Growth Curves and Accelerating Change Generic System Behaviors

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit World Population, 10,000 BC to 2000 AD: Birth and Growth Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The J Curve  First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves)  Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: ▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar ▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity) ▪ Global Economic Performance ▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics ▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global BrainAccelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Four Alternative Growth Scenarios: Jim Dator’s “Four Futures” First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979 The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution  technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb:20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo) 80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Economics, Politics, Technology… © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase STEM efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this:  Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.  Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.  Practice competitive intelligence for STEM-efficiency.  Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Be an Innovator 20% of the Time… Compstat, Broken Windows, Transparency Tech, Performance Accountability, Community Policing... © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Or Be an Efficiency Maven 80% of the Time… (Quality Control, Standards, Knowledge Mgmt, etc.) (Walter) Shewhart Cycle (Bell Labs) PDCA Improvement Cycle Plan: Design/revise business process for best ROI Do: Implement plan with measurement tools Check: Analyze results, report to decisionmakers Act: Decide on changes to improve process W. Edwards Deming Quality Statistician Shewhart and Deming developed tools for Quality Management via statistical process control (understanding and eliminating variation) Sampling techniques ANOVA, etc. Hypothesis testing Finding common/systemic and special/external causes of variation He favored cooperation over competition. 1.Appreciation for a system 2.Knowledge about variation 3.Knowledge of human psychology 4.A theory of knowledge

Understanding and Managing Development Predictable, Directional, Generally Irreversible, Cyclical, Conservative forms of Change

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths Examples: Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness worldvaluessurvey.org It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Trend: Declining Global Violence Stephen Pinker, “The History of Violence,” 2007 Civil society, positive-sum, empathy, immunity 20 th Century war deaths of 100 million would have been 2 billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare. Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per 100,000 in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s. Battle deaths in interstate wars have declined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s to 2,000/yr in 1990’s See Human Security Brief 2006 (www.humansecuritybrief.info/)www.humansecuritybrief.info/ © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality. America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007 Less ProficientMore Proficient A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Tech Development: Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks Li-Ion NanobatteryWhat Might This Enable? 80% recharge in 60 seconds 80X faster recharge (hi amp). Duty to 2,500 vs 500 cycles 5X increase in duty length Better at temp extremes Cost competitive Toshiba (2005) A123/De Walt (2008) New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps (FCS) Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen., Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities. “Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006 Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component. Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds, keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles. 180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Innovation, Patents, and Policy in Large vs. Small Companies Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless: a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence) Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim. Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids). Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait” Some Solutions: Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry Mandate tough and increasing performance standards Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies. Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs Promote corporate transparency Promote public stock ownership Toyota’s 1/X Concept Car (2007) 1/3 the weight 2X the fuel efficiency of the Prius © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IP Regulation and the Tech Innovation Rate: Examples from Bose and Microvision Innovation diffusion can be prevented due to overly restrictive IP (intellectual property) policy, often due to the philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation (Amar Bose, etc.). IP law reform can change this, but only with foresight and political will! © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative, So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Leader’s Challenge: Guiding us to “Plural Positive” Futures Pluralistic versus Plutocratic Positive-Sum versus Zero-Sum Differentiated versus Homogeneous “Both/And” versus “Either/Or” Futures Social-Tech ANDIndividual advance (Top-Down, Devo)(Bottom-Up, Evo) Calculator Use ANDMath Skills Incr. Automation Incr. ANDWork/Prod. Skills Metaverse Use ANDStudy/Reading Skills Automated Cars ANDDriving Skills Digital Twins ANDSelf-Empowerment Security ANDFreedom (to & from) © 2010 Accelerating.org

21 st Century Developmental Futures Brief Survey in a STEEPS Taxonomy

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Future Developments in a STEEPS Taxonomy Science Technology Environment Economics Politics Society Acceleration ‘Engines’ Acceleration ‘Steerers’ © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Physical Sciences - Evo Devo Physics (Qantm vs Rel.) - STEM Compression/FERD, Inner Space as Developmental Physics - Intelligent Black Holes & Multiverse Chemical Sciences - Evo Devo Chemistry - Biogenesis. RNA+Lipids as only and ubiquitous portal path to cells. - Tree of terminal differentiation for ~10M Chemical Species Biological Sciences - Evo-Devo Biology subsumes Darwinian evolutionary theory - Convergent evolution, astrobio as ecosystem macrodevelopment - Biological scaling, terminal diff, emergence & singularity theory. Social Sciences - Evo Devo Memetics - Developmental models of morality - More predictive use of power law, S, Log-normal, Kuznets, other curves Engineering Sciences - Evo Devo Technetics - Experience curves (cascaded S- curves) as a science of human- mediated machine learning - Theory of technological immune systems Computer & Info Sciences - Evo Devo Computation (eg, CA’s) - Theory of tech and dev. singularities. - Computational theories of complexity, morality, immunity - Einstein of information theory? 21st Century Developmental Futures: Science

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Nanotech & Energy - Exp. nanocomp. growth (SETs, spintronics, optical, quantum). - Exponential nanoenergy growth (PV, fuel cells, nanocapacitors) - Human energy intensity saturation Networks & Computing - Exp. network, sensor, platform growth (transparency, capacity) - Exp. growth, var. & specialization in parallel computing - Better bio-inspired computing. AI & Robotics - CI, Cybertwins and Valuecosm. - Human-surpassing robots (humbots, robocars). - Modular singularities leading to a generalized tech singularity. Biotech & Bioinformatics - Massively more bioinformatics. - Better agrobiotech, synthetic bio. - Marginally better biosims and reverse engineering. - Biotech remains underwhelming & a net money-losing invest. sector. Medicine & Enhancement - Massively better tech enhancement (brain & body implants, wearables). - Marginally better bioenhancement (gene therapy, drugs etc.). - Ever-declining longevity advances. Space - Declining info from astronomy and cosmology, but not astrobiology. - Stratellites, telerobots, end of primates-in-cans-in-vacuum 21st Century Developmental Futures: Technology

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Environment, Ecosystem Services, Resources, Populations Sustainability finally becomes as important as innovation in global economic-political-social system. Environmental quantification continues to accelerate, ecosystem services keep degrading in short-term (Paul Ehrlich) are far better protected in longer-term. Natural resources keep decreasing in cost (Julian Simon) and increase in sustainability (regs, recycling). Human birthrates stay on average inversely related to techno-social-economic development (‘demographic transition’). Global population peaks circa 2040, with ever- declining biological human birthrates after. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Economics, Finance, Business & IP Law Technical productivity seen as far more important than GDP. Increasing corporate plutocracy (political & financial influence) since 1950’s. This trend seems very likely to saturate in a networked, transparent, cybertwin world. Continued decreasing rich/poor divide globally (long-term, since 1700’s). Economic development finally spreading to very large countries (China, India) with lowering population growth. Income inequality in a typical developing country first increases, then decreases (Kuznets curve of income inequality) Increasing rich/poor divide in the most economically advanced ‘Great U-Turn’ countries US, UK, Switz. (short-term, since 1970’s). This trend seems very likely to saturate or reverse. Triple bottom line capitalism (financial, social, environmental benefits reporting) as Capitalism 3.0. Socially responsible investing funds are owned preferentially by women. As gender equity normalizes, SR investing advances. Corporate transparency grows as liberal democracy increases. http://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/special/s2/s2.htmhttp://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/special/s2/s2.htm and Ackerman et. al. The Political Economy of Inequality, 2000. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Politics, Policy, Rights, Security, Civil & Constitutional Law Global transition from illiberal to liberal democracies (Zakaria) as networks, transparency, and valuecosm advances. Increasingly transparent society (anonymity disappears, privacy protections increase). Ever-rising entitlements, strong civics education (Scandinavian democracies). Eventual equitocracy (Lightman). Ever-rising ‘victimless’ freedoms (Inglehart) American anomaly (nonparliamentary democracy) becomes parliamentary. Zakaria, The Future of Freedom 2007, The Post-American World, 2008 Smith, The American Anomaly: US Politics and Govt. in Comparative Perspective, 2007

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Big – Culture, Ethics, Media, Education, Religion Progressive decline of avg annual severity of violence (but increasing intensity of rare events) (Pinker) Entertainment, leisure time, travel keep growing (Kahn) Increasing gender, minority and disadvantaged economic, political, and cultural parity (eg., birthrate sex bias (China, India) disappears forever. True internet television with micropayments (100,000 channels of specialty content). CI, cybertwin, valuecosm, metaverse-mediated school- surpassing education (‘global citizens’, massive new subculture diversity). Steady increase in secular-rational values, particularly post-cybertwin (Inglehart) Reform (ecumenical, tolerant, science-congruent) variants of all major religions gain dominance over fundamentalism. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Medium – Entrepreneurship, Management, OD Flextime, jobsharing, sabbaticals keep increasing. More abstract and ‘high-touch’ service jobs available every year (‘getting paid to sing to babies.’) Innovation is much more abstract, harder to measure, increasingly ‘under the hood’ (happening in machines). More specialized high-tech and science jobs available (job diversity grows). Far more cybertwin-assisted jobs in all categories. Management and org development more routinized, better tuned to human psychology. Advanced human resources rating and training systems. Ratio of highest paid to average paid workers in public companies ‘rationalizes’ to less than 100. http://www.accelerating.org/articles/huebnerinnovation.html http://extremeinequality.org © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit 21 st Century Developmental Futures: Social Small – Family, Relationships, Personal Devel. More alternative families, relationships, lifestyles Increasingly informal, casual relationships and behavioral standards (short-term) Increasingly better models of behavior consequences, cybertwin- assisted behavior modification (long-term) Continued loss of individual skills (domestication) concomitant with great advances in social complexity Rising narcissism and disempowerment with tech. development short-term (Lasch), increasing self-actualization long-term (Maslow) Progressive change in our concept of identity, and eventually, increasing self-transcendence (cyberself) A postbiological transition is the clear, predictable long-term developmental destination. Our variety of evolutionary paths and levels of enlightenment on the way there seem far less predictable. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Selling and Building Immunity How Much? How Fast?

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Immune Systems All Complex Systems are Protected By Them Molecular-level Surveillance (Transparency) – Highly complex gene networks allow you to recognize roughly 1 million protein antigens as “self” at birth. MHC complex in each cell grinds up and presents to your immune cells fragments of anything that is “nonself”. Difficult to See, Can Fail Subtly (Subliminality) – Ex: HLA sensing and birth control pills. Multiple Overlapping Processes (Redundancy) – Barriers, NK Cells, MHC, AP Cells, T-cells, B Cells, Antibodies, Complement, etc. Statistical Effects (Graceful Degradation) Rapid response (Institutional Memory) Strengthened by Catastrophe (Learning System) © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Healthy Immunity Protects Privacy, Ends Anonymity A healthy living system is: – transparent to a trusted immune system – compartmentalized to everyone else. There is no place your immune cells can’t go Likewise, in late 21C society privacy, compartments, and secrets will abound, yet all communications and actors must, by then, be near fully immune-transparent. The alternative just doesn’t work (as we’ll see). And since information can asymmetrically protect itself (it is always far easier to encrypt than decrypt): – All encryption keys must be breakable by trusted actors, with due process. – Packet sniffing/channel sampling to find illicit economies. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2008 Accelerating.org© 2007 Accelerating.org Panopticon: Affordable, Balanced Transparency is a Positive-Sum Game in Civil Society Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency (2003) Tracking illicit economies (a major global vulnerability) Surveillance (top-down tracking) Souveillance (bottom-up tracking) Ex: Lower Manhattan Security Initiative (2008): - 3,000 new sec. cameras, 2/3 in private hands. - Automated license plate readers (like UK). Ex: Cameras in Police Cruisers (2003+) - Sometimes at behest of officers (safety) - Sometimes citizen initiatives (civil rights) Balance is a ‘Panopticon’, all-watching-all in public space. (Transparent Society, 2008)

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras, Camera Traps and Mesh Networks Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005)Red light camera (Beaverton, OR) WoodsWatcher, $285 Rare and previously thought extinct animals are being discovered. We can buy $200 surveillance cameras at Wal-Mart (2005). When are we going to see $20 camera traps for personal use? When in developing nations? © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Immunity Platform: Cellphones Cell phone communication is a strategic defensive asset, with intrinsically stabilizing, self-balancing features. Granular ability to monitor and locate, fine- grained revocation of privileges. Disaster warnings, public information. 3G platform allows cameraphones, video recording, Neighborhood Watch. Proliferation of citizen journalism, entertainment, and entrepreneurship. Can build in immune systems (Q-Zone) CPA’s Iraq rollout was a profitmaking venture, ensuring minimum civilian access. No subsidization, no accelerated timetables, no military control. TrafficWiSE, TrafficGauge (Wireless Signal Extraction) agg. realtime cellphone data BlueLinx © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Tech Immune Systems Example: Cellphones An intrinsically defensive asset. -- Monitorable (location and content) -- Strengthen personal networks -- The mean can self-police the extremes (report scofflaws) -- Granular privileges (given and revoked) -- Can be built robustly (dynamo, nano batts) -- Chip provides superior ID (address books) -- Hot button to security radio band © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Immunity Platform: Broadband Internet Today Still a ‘Wild West’ of Anonymity. Need: Secure Digital ID Packet transparency ISP Accountability Far better cybercrime policing Speed! (100X). Soon speed will be in national interest – Turnpike analogy: mandated highways, mandated FTTH

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit What are our Contingency Plans for immunity advance after inevitable SIMAD/FIMAD/BOGMAD attacks? How do we “catalyze immunity” from catastrophe? Lesson: Shell Oil Scenarios. They foresaw and took advantage of: – OPEC Oil Embargo (1972) – Fall of Soviet Union (1989) Be ready for rapid learning from catastrophe with appropriate immune responses Pay for Serious Foresight (Scenarios, Driving Forces) Have the Best Plans on the Shelf Have the Best R&D Strategy Execute when Opportune. “Don’t waste a good crisis.” “People don’t change when they see the light, they change when they feel the heat.” © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Anticipation Example: Shotspotters and Next-Gen Security Cams What is the Contingency Plan for next Serial Sniper? Beltway Sniper Attacks – Three weeks, ten deaths (Oct 2002) – Two individuals (John Muhammad, Lee Malvo) – Stealth technology (Caprice sedan w/ cutout) Subsidized Shotspotters – Used in high-crime areas (LA, SF) – “Broken Windows” effect (police quickly knock on doors after, to see what was seen). Measurable effects on CompStat. – Institutional resistance (far more prolific and accurate calls) Subsidized Sound-Sensitive Telephoto Security Cams – Swivel, 100X zoom, $700. Turn/zoom to screams or shots, $300. – Should be $100. Lawsuits against places that don’t have them. Lesson to Shooters: They are building their own cage. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2008 Accelerating.org Anticipation Example: NICS, Self-Censorship, Ballistic Shields What’s the Contingency Plan for next Mass Shooting? Virginia Tech Massacre – Two hours, thirty-two deaths (Apr 2007) – One individual (Seung-Hui Cho) – Mental illness history – Relished the standoff (self-styled ‘gunslinger’) – NBC, CNN aired parts of his manifesto. Still on YouTube today. Stronger NICS / Gun Control Laws (happened) – NICS (Nat’l Instant Criminal Background Check) strengthened (those judged mentally unsound unable to purchase guns). Stronger Media Self-Censorship Codes and Laws – Clarification of Glorification (Pandering) Subsidized Ballistic Shields – 20-50lbs, stop ALL handguns, 90% of rifles. – Shotports, built in tasers. – $1500, should be $200. Avail. like fire extinguishers. – Lawsuits against places that don’t have them. – Home versions have integrated 911 cellphones. Lesson to Shooters: Rapid takedowns.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Point-of-Contact Fingerprint PDAs UK’s Lantern (2006+) allows roadside scanning wireless search of 6.5M fingerprint database. Under 5 mins in 2006. Under 2 mins (2008). Saves £2.2M annually (taking unidentified suspects to station for fingerprint identification). – Significant fraction (“60%”) of documentless felons that are stopped by police do not give their true identity. A ten force pilot, managed by Police Info Tech Org (2006). – Institutionalized sandbox/trials space. 100,000 ordered at the cost of £50 million (2008) Trial Balloon for Legal Change – Point-of-contact fingerprinting is today voluntary (vs. at station) – Desire was signaled to change the law, to give beat officers same legal rights with fingerprinting as station-based officers What’s the Best Context for launching this initiative in US? © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Asymmetric Transparency: Stratellites for Global Security, Communications, Space Solar Power V. 1.0 Stationkeeping at 70K feet for a year (Helios 1999+) Space-to-stratosphere powered, relayed above most atmosphere (high efficiency, no EMI or heating) Many stratellites served by each satellite Very high resolution radar and visual intelligence Uses: Theatre ops, comm. relay, missile early warning, border monitoring, city monitoring, etc. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2008 Accelerating.org© 2007 Accelerating.org Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our 21 st Century Global Security Paradigm Sputnik (1957)Humbot 0.1 (2005)Humbot 1.0 (2035?) U.S.-Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U.S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech Q: Will a U.S.-Japanese-led security consortium supply the world with Humbot 0.3? A Chinese-Korea-led Consortium? Major strategic uncertainty. The choice is ours. Humbot 1.0 will secure the Gap Countries, and may have the single greatest impact on global armed forces structure of any 21 st century tech. Are we planning for this?

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Networked Weapons: Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters) Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins) Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours) 2005+: Video recording. Networked Weapons (NWs) convert security systems from intrinsically offensive intrinsically defensive assets. GPS-on-a-chip data recorders are doable today (but still expensive). Localizers later. 30 second ping intervals, like cellphone. Military, large weapons first? Global handguns next? Consumer versions with 911, audio, and video necklace (2025?) People who buy guns for defense want to be localized. Get a percentage using it voluntarily, have option to require it later.

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Inevitables’ (Portal Pathways) Experience Great Evolutionary Variation (Unique, Creative Transitions) Example: Guns in Japan vs. Elsewhere The Japanese govt. was strong enough to ban guns for centuries. First guns (arquebus, right) came with Portuguese in 1543, used in many massed battles. By 1600 Japan had world's best guns, but they were increasingly regulated and finally banned by centralized samurai clan (Tokugawa clan) for 250 years. As inevitables, guns eventually had to reemerge. But they did so on Japanese terms. Japan retains a strong police force and collectivist society today. As of 2006 there are only 175K registered owners of 340K guns in Japan. In US: ~40 million gun owners, ~180 million guns. Japan has the lowest gun crime rate of any industrialized nation (93 gun deaths in 1998, vs 36,000 in US. Japan has 130M vs. US 300M citizens). All 175K gun owners were mass-checked after 2007 Sasebo shooting ‘rampage’ (2 deaths, 6 injuries). 90 were ‘declared unfit to own’ guns. 2008 laws prevent stalkers, spouse abusers, suicidal, and bankrupts from owning guns, including hunting guns, for an extended period of time. Fifteen year sentences for owning illegal guns, death penalty for org. crime murder by gun, police raids on suspected illegal gun owners, etc. Major observation: Every other industrialized nation (Australia, Europe, etc.) is trending strongly in this postmilitary, postviolent direction (Pinker, Myth of Violence). Just a few outliers (US, Brazil, Mexico, Estonia, etc.) remain. Gun story foretells a Planetized level of social integration and immunity.

Security and Law Enforcement Leadership and Org. Development Some Offensive and Defensive Strategies in a World of Accelerating Change

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Offensive Strategies: John Boyd: Energy-Maneuverability Theory A Jet’s Maneuverability (Average Kinetic Energy) = (Thrust minus Drag over Weight) x Velocity Led Boyd and the USAF “Lightweight Fighter Mafia” to strongly advocate radical lightweighting and design improvements to the F-15 and F-16. For all Boyd briefs and commentary, visit Chet Richard’s site: www.d-n-i.net/second_level/boyd_military.htm © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit STEM Compression and Reaction Time: Boyd’s OODA Loop Rise of maneuver vs. attrition warfare (fast infantry > cavalry > ground vehicles > jet fighters > netwar) Since Napoleon’s fast infantry, the best tech continually “gets inside the decision cycle” of the opponent. Latest Manifestation: “Rapid Dominance/Shock and Awe” Strategy. Gulf War I and II (beginning). -- Massive communication (land, air, space) and air power (recon, bombers, fighters, missiles). -- Target enemy command and control. A) Total command of the skies and B) overwhelming firepower are not enough. They must be C) deployable inside the enemy’s OODA loop. Israel had A&B in the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, but Hezbollah had better and faster ground maneuverability and concealment. Stalemate. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Superior Energy-Maneuverability and Rapid OODA: The Tactical Advantage of Small, Expert Teams Small teams can: -- Rapidly innovate and adapt -- Operate below the radar (stealth) -- Have superior urgency and purpose -- Ignore convention and pursue vision -- Get hand-picked excellence and resources -- Sustain their speed via redundancy and reserves -- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory as needed These are increasingly critical advantages in a globalized, accelerating, network-centric world. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Defensive Strategies: Managing Technological Development Since the birth of civilization, humanity has been learning to build special types of technological systems that are progressively able to do more for us, in a more networked and resilient fashion, using less resources (matter, energy, space, time, human and economic capital) to deliver any fixed amount of complexity, productivity, or capability. We are faced daily with many possible evolutionary choices in which to invest our precious time, energy, and resources, but only a few optimal developmental pathways will clearly "do more, and better, with less." © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Defensive Strategies: Organizational Development (Behavior Change) Needs a Learning Culture Can take 3 years to a generation Need long term reasons, consistent w/ mission&values. Find a coalition of champions at the top. One usually isn’t enough. She will retire. Org. narratives must be involved. New direction/story must be an enhancement to old direction/story. Enlist all stakeholders (internal and external) Provide support for those who react to change as loss/death: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, then Acceptance. “People change when they feel the heat and see the light (ahead, at least).” Neither alone is enough. Communicate, communicate, communicate, and listen. *Jim Burke, Futures, Forecasting, & Change Mgmt, Northrop Grumman IT Intell.Group © 2010 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A Culture of Transformation: Leading Change in Large Organizations Professor of Leadership, HBS. Eight Steps: 1. Establish a sense of urgency. 2. Form a powerful guiding coalition starting with a small, hand-picked team. 3. Create a vision. 4. Communicate that vision (along with mandates and priorities). 5. Empower others to act on the vision. 6. Plan for and create short-term wins. 7. Consolidate improvements, reward progress, and keep momentum. 8. Institutionalize the new approaches. Classic article: Leading Change: Why Transformation Efforts Fail, John P. Kotter, HBR, Jan 1995/07, 10p. © 2010 Accelerating.org

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Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010  Folsom, CA John Smart,

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Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010  Folsom, CA John Smart,

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Presentation on theme: "Adapting to the Future: Understanding and Guiding Accelerating Change as a Law Enforcement Leader POST Command College March 2010  Folsom, CA John Smart,"— Presentation transcript:

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