1. AP HUMAN GEOGRAPHY CHAPTER 5 CLASS NOTES
Processes and Cycles of Population Change

2. The Population Explosion of the 20th Century
2.5 million years for the world’s pop. to reach 1 Billion,
Only 200 more years to reach 6 billion
Key to reducing population growth rates?
WOMEN!!!
education
rights

4. Thomas Malthus ??? British Economist Essay on Population, 1798
World’s Population is increasing faster than the food supplies needed to sustain it

5. Malthus Theory Population increases at an Exponential rate
Means of Subsistence (food supply) increases at an Arithmetic rate

6. Growth Types

7. Linear (Arithmetic) Growth
Constant
(arithmetic rate) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.

8. Exponential (Geometric) Growth
Compounded (doubling)
2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, etc.

9. Pick a Side Neo-Malthusian: Supports ideas of Malthus
Inevitable stage in history
Human suffering greater than M. predicted
Anti-Malthusian: not in agreement
Food production not linear> has become exponential as well
Cultivated land increased
New seeds and fertilizers used (biotech, yield)

10. Natural Increase (pop.) ???
Difference between # of births and # of deaths in a period
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): live births per year per 1,000
Crude Death Rate (CDR): # of deaths per ,000 (mortality rate)

11. High Birth & Death Rate High BR:
S. Asia, SW Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (50 per 1000)
Highest DR:
Africa
Deteriorating health conditions
No Access
Infant Mortality Rate: ???
die before 1st BDay

12. Low Birth Rate
Low BR: Europe (15 per 1,000), N. America, Australia, China, Japan
Low BR =
modernization, industrialization, urbanization, education (women)

13. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
# of children born to women of child bearing age
TFR’s are declining all over the world
China’s fell from 6.1 to 1.7 in just 30 years
A TFR of 2.1 is needed to maintain stable population over time (60 countries below)

15. Past Limits on Population Growth (until 19th Century)
(Malthus said we needed to check Pop.)
Epidemics & Plagues (Black Death, AIDS)
Famines (weather)
Wars
(Khmer Rouge killed 3 of 7 million people)

16. After 1800s… Marked increase in Pop. Growth rate in Europe
2nd Agricultural Revolution
Farming methods improved
Tools
***Industrial Revolution***
Sanitation, vaccines,

18. Demographic Change Formula To figure out the total POP. change
TP = OP + B – D + I – E
TP : total population
OP: original population
B: births
D: deaths
I: Immigration
E: Emigration

19. Living Old… DEPENDENCY RATIO –
Ratio of # of people either too old or too young to provide for themselves to the # of people who must support them through their own labor
n : 100
n = the number of dependents

20. POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids)
Instantly conveys the demographic situation in a country
See what age group (of M & F) has what share of the population

21. POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids) World POPULATION
What does this tell us???

23. What is happening to POP in each???

25. Nigeria 1963

26. Nigeria 2003

28. Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

29. Demographic Transition (Cycle) 4 STAGES MODEL
Development : BR / DR
(Based on Europe Model of Growth (UK))
1. High Stationary Stage –
high fertility (BR), high mortality (DR), little long term POP growth
Farming, Mining
(poor, underdeveloped countries)

30. Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

33. 2. Early Expanding Stage – high BR, declining DR POP growth rate high Food Supply & Country Stable, Trade

35. DTC con. 3. Late Expanding Stage -
Now declining BR, already low DR so continued POP growth
Industrialization, Urbanization

37. 4. Low Stationary Stage –
low fertility, low mortality,
low POP growth rate
Modernization, Education, Women Rights
= CORE COUNTRIES (Rich, Industrialized)

40. Key Questions…
Why Unwise to assume that ALL countries’ growth follows DTCM (Europe)?
Stationary Population Level (SPL) (DTM Stage 5?)
World’s pop. will stop growing in 21st Cen. (Will Stabilize)
Why??? How???