1. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 1 Forecasts for renewable energy and disaster management Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational Management Division Deutscher Wetterdienst

2. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 2 Motivation  Moving towards sustainable supply of energy based on renewables  Focus on wind- and solar power production  Weather dependent, fluctuating power production Contribution of Renewables [%] to Total Power Production in Germany 2010: 18% 2012: 25% ? ? ?

3. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 3 A new component in the system Renewable Energy Conventional Energy Energy Consumption Net Transfer Load + Net Transfer = RE + CE 35% 65% 90% controllable predictable

4. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 4 Challenge for TSOs  Ensure the balance between production and consumption at any time…  …under the constraint of limited grid capacity Growing proportion of weather-dependent power production requires new strategies for managing the power grid German High-Voltage Transmission System

5. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 5  Various options to guarantee stability of grid:  Re-dispatch of conventional power plants, transmission of surplus energy between regulatory areas, positive/negative energy reserves (pumping stations)  Down-regulation of renewable power plants  Unexpected events can jeopardise safety of grid:  Unexpected high production of power can cause failure of equipment (power transformation stations) with possible consequences also for neighbouring grids  Unexpected low production of power can cause shortages (load shedding) Role of Transmission System Operators (TSOs)

6. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 6 HIW for PV power production „observed“ Fog predicted, but not observed Difference: Day-Ahead Forecast ~ 6 GW, Intra-Day Forecast ~ 3 GW Operating Reserve: ± 4.5 GW

7. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 7 Prediction „Observation“ 30.01.2013 source: http://www.transparency.eex.comhttp://www.transparency.eex.com (average electricity consumption: ~60 GW) HIW for wind power production Observed wind below the level necessary for peak production

8. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 8 Expected Value of user function 〈UF〉 〈UF(x)〉 ●●●●●●●●● (Theoretical) linear user function UF (〈x〉) = 〈x〉

9. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 9 Expected Value of user function 〈UF〉 ●●●●●●●●● Nonlinear user function 〈UF(x)〉 UF (〈x〉) ≠ The expected value of the user function is not equal to the user function of the expected value, but depends on the whole ensemble 〈x〉

10. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 10 So far the theory…  “In theory” the advantages of incorporating information on the level of uncertainty are acknowledged  R&D of TSOs actively ask for scenarios  Operation Managers are (partly) still reluctant to incorporate this information  Main concerns:  Accountability… “if something goes wrong we need to justify our decision”  Information overload… “too much information is confusing rather than helping”  The way forward:  Automatic (user-specific) systems to suggest “best decision”  Condensed (user-specific) presentation of information to prepare for alternative scenarios  Projects to explore this route just starting at DWD

11. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 11 New research projects  Funding agency: Federal Ministry for Environment  Collaborative projects with partners in research and industry  EWeLiNE  Duration: 4 years, 12/2012 – 11/2016, 13 scientist positions  Highlight: assimilation of wind power production observations  ORKA  Duration: 3 years, 08/2012 – 08/2015, 2 scientist positions  Highlight: direct communication between developer and user on deficiencies in prediction system, i.e. frequent cycle of development-evaluation work  External advisory committee: industrial user and provider of weather- and power-prediction models, to:  discuss results  incorporate external experiences  insure that developments are geared towards the needs of general user

12. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 12 Disaster Management

13. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 13 Disaster Management

14. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 14 Disaster Management  What is GDACS?  GDACS is a cooperation framework under the United Nations umbrella. It includes disaster managers and disaster information systems worldwide and aims at filling the information and coordination gap in the first phase after major disasters.  GDACS provides real-time access to web-based disaster information systems and related coordination tools.  What services does GDACS provide?  provides alerts and impact estimations after major disasters  develops standards and guidelines for international information exchange in disasters  provides the real-time coordination platform  coordinates the creation and dissemination of disaster maps and satellite images  Detailed weather forecast are provided rapidly on demand by SARWeather a broken link…

15. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 15 Two levels of response  An event (disaster) is detected:  Assessment of humanitarian impact  Actual response  An event (potential disaster) is predicted:  Depending on the level of (un)certainty preparations for actual response  Continuous update on prediction 50 mm 11/03/2013, 00 UTC 40 mm 10/03/2013, 12 UTC 110 mm 09/03/2013, 12 UTC 08/03/2013, 12 UTC ECMWF EPS-FC Noumea, New Caledonia 120 mm

16. Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 16 Summary  Growing proportion of energy supply based on renewables requires  new strategies to integrate meteorological information into decision-making  focus on reliable forecast systems  consideration of user defined high-impact events  National disaster relief organizations ask for  global early warnings for preparatory actions  frequent updates in the event of a possible disaster  consideration of individual vulnerability levels