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Governor Stefan Ingves The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Governor Stefan Ingves The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Governor Stefan Ingves The Swedish Economy and Monetary Policy NBP Warsaw 24 May 2012

2 Financial markets fragile

3 Weak growth in the euro area… GDP, annual percentage changeSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

4 …which dampens Swedish exports Export market and exports Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5 Improvement at the start of the year Index, 2007 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden

6 Some positive signs Index, mean value = 100, standard deviation = 10 Source: National Institute of Economic Research

7 Labour market to deteriorate slightly over the coming year Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

8 Low inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

9 Repo rate to remain low Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

10 A forecast, not a promise Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank

11 Household´s debt Note. The series refers to the Riksbank's own calculations using data from Statistics Sweden. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

12 Sweden has a large banking sector that is dependent on other countries… Bank assets in relation to GDP Note. Per cent. Data refer to December 2010. Sources: ECB, European Commission, Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank

13 Swedish banks are de facto Nordic- Baltic Norway: 16 % Denmark: 15 % Finland: 39 % Estonia: 81 % Latvia: 53 % Lithuania: 62 % Sweden: 75 % Market share of Swedish banks in Nordic and Baltic countries, late 2009 Sources: Official and industry data, Riksbank estimates


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