1. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OPERATIONAL MONITORING MISSIONS CAPACITY USER REQUIREMENTS Albert Goede Final Presentation, 2 June 2005, ESTEC ESA project AO/1-4273/02/NL/GS From 1/10/2003 to 2/6/2005

2. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 2 USER REQUIREMENTS what are they and what for High level data and information requirements for Stratospheric Ozone, Surface UV, Air Quality and Climate Operational Monitoring Atmospheric Composition Operational=reliable well proven service Monitoring=data continuity spanning decades

3. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 3 Users Who are they and what do they want Identification of users through user oriented ESA, EC and national projects such as ESA DUE and EC RTD (TEMIS, PROMOTE, EVERGREEN, CREATE/DAEDALUS, GEMS, etc) Input from key Users at the User Consultation meeting ESTEC 20-21 January 2004 and feedback from Users at the Mid Term Review 31 August 2004 Consultation with federating Agencies such as WMO, EEA, ECMWF,

4. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 4 Approach to deriving User Requirements Based on IGACO Strategy for integrated observations from ground, airborne and space instruments combined with model information through data assimilations. Hence, not just satellite specifications Based on services already delivered to Users in the ESA GMES Service Element PROMOTE Building on existing requirement specifications such as WMO-GAW, UNFCCC-GCOS, EUMETSAT and previous ESA studies

5. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 5 WP 1000 Reference Documents WG 1 to 5 reports User Consultation (January 2004) IGOS-P IGACO Theme Report (May 2004) WMO-GAW strategy for Integrating satellite and ground based GMES GATO Strategy Report (March 2004) GEO User Requirement and Outreach (April 2004) EUMETSAT Observation Requirements Now casting and Very Short Range Forecasting 2015-2025 EUMETSAT study on Geo Stationary Satellite Observations for Monitoring Atmospheric Composition 2015-2025 GCOS Implementation Plan in support of UNFCCC (May2004) ESA Kyoto study 15427/01/NL/MM ACECHEM, GeoTROPE and TROC Earth Explorer proposals

6. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 6 User requirements based on ESA GMES Service Element for Atmosphere PROMOTE Services addressing the Themes: A. Stratospheric Ozone/Surface UV B. Air Quality C. Climate Change With applications in : 1. Protocol Monitoring 2. Forecasting 3. Assessment 3x3 matrix of requirements from A-1 to C-3

7. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 7 Atmospheric Composition Themes and Applications

8. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 8 User Requirements Ozone Policy:Montreal Protocol Observations: Ground (Dobson/Brewer, GAW, NDSC), aircraft (MOZAIC, CARIBIC, NOXAR,..), Satellite (TOMS, GOME, SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, OMI,..) Models: Atmospheric Chemistry Transport models with data assimilation Users: WMO, ECMWF, Nat Meteo Inst

9. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 9 User Requirements Ozone Monitoring Service Total ozone time series 1979-2020 at 1% accuracy Forecast Services Daily total ozone (1%) Daily 5-10 days forecast (1%) Daily troposphere column (10%) Daily 3D profiles (5%) Assessment Services Total reactive chlorine and bromine loading (15%) Key species catalytic cycles (HOx, NOx, ClOx) Stratospheric H2O, CH4, aerosol/PSC/cloud

10. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 10 User Requirements Ozone Total Ozone Horizontal resolution 100-10 km Temporal resolution 24-6 hrs RMS error 1%, bias 5%, trend 0.1% Example GOME vs. TOMS by KNMI employing TOGOMI retrieval vs. TOMS vs8 algorithm

11. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 11 Daily Assimilated Ozone profile from MIPAS in ROSE model by DLR

12. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 12 User Requirements UV Policy: Montreal, UNCED Agenda 21 Observations: ground (Sun photometer network), satellite (ozone) Models: Assimilated O3 fields, aerosol, albedo, clouds Users: European/National/private Consulted: SYKE, RIVM, BVDD,

13. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 13 User Requirements UV UV index (clear sky UV irradiance weighted erythemal action spectrum) UV dose (integrated daily exposure including clouds) Monitoring Services Time series Global/regional, Monthly/seasonal averages, (1 index point accuracy) 100km/10km, 1day/1hr (underlying data at higher spatial resolution (ozone, cloud, aerosol, albedo, ) Forecasting Services Near Real Time delay 3 hrs, cloud 30 min Assessment Services Understanding solar radiation balance (closure) Epidemiological studies health/environment sector (region/time)

14. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 14 User Requirements UV Forecast daily erythemal UV dose by DWD using ECMWF assimilated data (22-08- 03)

15. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 15 User Requirements Air Quality Policy: CLRTAP, EC Framework Directives, National Emission Ceilings, Aircraft/Shipping emission regulation Observations: ground (EMEP, EEA-TCACC, ), satellite (GOME, ATSR-2, MODIS, SCIAMACHY, OMI, ) Models: CTM, dispersion (EURAD, CHIMERE, MOCAGE, ADMS-Urban, ) Users: European/National environmental Agencies Consulted: LUA/NRW, RIVM (EEA TC-ACC), NILU (EMEP), UBA-Aus, EMPA, EPA, ARPA, JRC-IES, ADEME, INERIS,

16. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 16 User Requirements Air Quality Monitoring Services Surface concentration NO2, O3, SO2, CO, AOD/A, CH4, NMHC, NH3, 10 km horizontal, 1 hr temporal, regional/glob Time period 25 yr, accuracy 10-50% depending on species Forecast Services Daily AQ index, time resolution 1 hr, spatial resolution 10km Daily 5-10 days forecast regional/global Assessment Services Long-range transport (CO, NOx, O3, PM10, ) Long-term trend tropospheric ozone (UTLS, deposition, photolysis rates Oxidising capacity OH; Prod O3, NOx, H2O2, ROOH, Loss CO, CH4, NMHC, O3, NO2,

17. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 17 User Requirements Air Quality Aerosol Optical Depth over Europe for a single month average derived from ATSR-2 on ERS-2 satellite by TNO-FEL.

18. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 18 AQ index forecasts at various scales employing EURAD model by Uni Koln

19. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 19 AQ forecast at various scales employing CHIMERE model by LISA/AirParif/Airimax

20. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 20 AQ city scale NO2 monitoring and forecast over Greater London employing ADMS Urban dispersion model by CERC

21. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 21 User Requirements Climate Change Policy: UNFCCC, Kyoto, EU/ECCP, IPCC Observations: ground (WDCGG GAW/CMDL, EEA TC-ACC, GCOS-GUAN), satellite (IMG, MOPITT, ATSR, MODIS, AIRS, SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, TES, IASI, ILAS, OCO, ) Models: Climate chemistry models, inverse models, Users: International/European/National Climate Agencies Consulted: RIVM (EEA TC-ACC), NILU (EMEP), UBA-Aus, EMPA, EPA, JRC-IES, UNFCCC Bonn,

22. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 22 User Requirements Climate Change Monitoring Services UTLS GHG vertical distributions 1 km, trend, variability (incl. H2O), aerosol, cirrus Emission Services Surface concentration GHG/aerosol, 50/10 km horizontal, 2/0.5 km vertical, regional/global, 12 hrs temporal, 1-2% (CO2 0.2%) accuracy PBL. Emissions retrieved by inverse modelling Assessment Services Climate chemistry interaction (Brewer-Dobson circ, troposphere height, UTLS coupling ozone, H2O, aerosol, clouds. Common ozone transport tracers N2O, CH4, CO, HCl,. Trend H2O 1%,

23. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 23 Methane concentrations measured by SCIAMACHY 2 yr average By IUP Heidelberg through EC Project EVERGREEN

24. CAPACITY User Requirements, Final Presentation ESTEC, 2 June 2005 24 Conclusions User Requirements ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OPERATIONAL MONITORING Long term continuity of data is a necessary operational monitoring (GMES) requirement Ozone/UV monitoring and forecast requirements agree with existing/planned observation/model capability Air Quality services require high temporal resolution (1 hr) at high horizontal resolution (10 km) and high sensitivity at the atmospheric boundary layer, exceeding international existing/planned observation capability Climate services and ozone assessment require high accuracy at the atmospheric boundary layer for emissions, and high vertical resolution at the UTLS for assessment of GHG (incl. O3, H2O), aerosol and precursors exceeding international existing/planned observation/model capability