1. The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings Performed by USCA Research Methods class Professor Bob Botsch, Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant

2. Gimme Shelter! I built that! Beech Island Community Center

3. Methodology N = 753 Sample design: – 10 representative precincts – Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size – Systematic sampling – Two time clusters Response rate: 70% Sample error: +/- 4% Successfully matched presidential vote – Romney: actual 63%; sample 60% – Obama: actual 36%; sample 37%

4. 2012 Vote by Party: an exercise in party loyalty—GOP advantage: 51%/33% VoteStrong Dem (20%) Mod Dem (10%) Lean Dem (3%) Indep (16%) Lean Rep (7%) Mod Rep (18%) Strong Rep (26%) Obama (37%) 97%96%85%44%2%1%0% Rmney (60%) 4%5%15%56%98%99%100%

5. Distant Hints of Change: Groups of Voters Trending Toward Democrats Group (% of all voters) All Voters Young (<30) (16%) Single (23%) Non- South (16%) % Dem 32%40%54%41% % Rep 51%45%29%34%

6. How These Groups are Different GroupAll VotersYoung (<30)SingleNon-South Obama is Muslim 32%27%21%16% Confederate Flag--Keep Up 50%39%29%18% Blacks too powerful 28%20% 14% Hispanics too powerful 21%13% 12% Gays too powerful 31%18% 24% Atheists too powerful 29%18%19% Oppose Gay marriage 49%32%28%36%

7. Tea Party Suppt: Drop from 2010 (43% to 30%) & Generally to the Far Right Area/IssueDemocratsIndependtNon TP Rep’sTP Rep’s white 37%74%95%98% conservative 9%35%80%92% moderate 21%38%15%4% Mean age 46 yrs49 yrs48 yrs53 yrs Family Income app $36,000 app $46,000 app $57,000 app $65,000 Married 47%62%67%81%

8. Continued-1 Area/IssueDemocratsIndependntNon TP Rep’sTP Rep’s Worse off 4 years ago 8%34%64%73% Obama to blame 4%14%49%66% Obama Muslim 4%13%47%58% People prefer handouts 16%18%37%36% Strong over Helpful leaders 16%37%54%69% Want leadrs to compromse 79%92%77%73%

9. Continued-2 Area/IssueDemocratsIndependntNon TP Rep’sTP Rep’s Abortion: Pro- choice 69%61%40%23% Abortion: Pro- life 8%9%16%19% Cut programs to reduc defct 14%43%62%80% Health care by free mkt 4%27%33%62% Insurance cover birth control 70%54%36%25% Ext ALL tax cuts 21%28%34%64% Preserve Soc Security 85%88%86%80%

10. Continued-3 Area/IssueDemocratsIndependntNon TP Rep’sTP Rep’s Keep Confed Flag flying 10%33%54%66% Oppose Gay Marriage 22%28%66%75% Gays too powerful 17%15%43%42% Atheists too powerful 18%12%34%41% Blacks too powerful 9%19%39%40% Hispanics too powerful 11%13%25%26%

11. Continued-4 Area/IssueDemocratsIndependntNon TP Rep’sTP Rep’s Unions too powerful 32%38%63%75% Corporatins too powerful 75%71%61%45% Banks too powerful 73%62%54%59% Religious Fundamntst 28%14%33%39% Rel extrmly imprtant in vote choice 21%11%29%38% Nat. South self-identity 60%59%73%70%

12. Obama Independent Vote Depressed by White Independents—Ethnicity! Election Year:200420082012 All Independents % Kerry (’04) or Obama (‘08/12) 42% 45% 40% White Indepents % Kerry (’04) or Obama (‘08/12) 41% 39% 28% White Independents % felt Blacks too much power Not asked 15% 19% White Independents % think Obama is Muslim Not asked 16% 27%

13. “Makers and Takers” as Seen Through Partisan Lenses Opinion:RepublicansDemocrats People want to Work 31%52% People Prefer Govt Handouts 37%17% Both play an equal role 30%26%

14. Seeing People as “Takers” Increases Romney Vote Voting Choice People Want to Work Equal Role People Prefer Govt Handouts Obama52%36%19% Romney48%64%81%

15. Ethnic Antipathy Score (Blacks too much power; Muslim; Conf Flag—4 pt scale) Predicts Vote Among Whites Eth-Ant Score (%) 0 (28%) 1 (18%) 2 (23%) 3 (31%) Obama73%32%3%0% Romney27%68%97%100%

16. Dramatic Increase in White Voter Ethnic-Antipathy Scores since 2008 Eth-Ant Score: 0123 2008 %33%40%21%6% 2012 %28%18%23%31% Change-5 % pts-22% pts+2% pts+25% pts

17. The Gender/Marriage Gaps in Aiken County and the Nation GroupAik% (Nat %) Obama Aik % (Nat %) Romney Diff: Ob – Rm Aik (Nat) total vote all voters 37% (51%)60% (48%)-23% (+3%) males 36% (45%)60% (52%)-24% (-7%) females 38% (55%)59% (44%)-21% (+11%) married 28% (42%)70% (56%)-42% (-14%) single 61% (62%)33% (35%)+28% (+27%)

18. Conclusions 1.County heavily GOP 2.Some warning signs for the future 1.Young/single/in-migrants less GOP 2.More socially moderate 3.Tea Party support decline from 2010 (-13 % points) 4.Tea Party Republicans quite different across range of issues/attitudes/identities 5.indepndts closer to Dem’s—should vote more Dem (?) 6.Obama hurt by white independent voters 7.Republicans more likely to see people as lazy and Democrats to see people as wanting to work 8.Ethnic antipathy a major factor—as important as party (and intertwined with party) 9.Increasing racial polarization—dramatic increases in ethnic antipathy since 2008 10.Gender Gap small in Aiken Co, but Marriage Gap huge