1. NCEP Operational Wave Guidance during Hurricane Sandy October 2012

2. Operational Wave Models at NCEP The following wave model systems are operational at NCEP – Global, Deterministic Multi_1: Global wave model, driven by GFS Multi_2: Hurricane wave model, driven by a GFS/GFDL wind blend – Global, Ensemble MENS: Global wave ensemble model driven by GEFS NFCENS: Combined NCEP/FNMOC wave ensemble product – Super-ensemble combining NCEP and FNMOC wave ensemble wave heights – Great Lakes, Deterministic NAM driven wave model system NDFD driven wave model system A EMC-development parallel wave model (this is an upgrade of wave physics for the Great Lakes and has been approved for transition to operations, as soon as the schedule makes it feasible).

3. NCEP Wave Model Guidance Comparison are made against buoys – 41001 East of Cape Hatteras – 41002 South of Cape Hatters – 44009 East of Delaware Bay – 44025 East of New York Harbor – 45007 South Lake Michigan – 45149 South Lake Huron Spatial fields of modeled wave heights are provided for reference Definitions of symbols and colors are indicated in the slide notes for each slide

4. Buoys used for Guidance Validation

5. Buoy 41001 (E Cape Hateras), Deterministic

6. Buoy 41001 (E Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

7. Buoy 41002 (S Cape Hateras), Deterministic

8. Buoy 41002 (S Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

9. Buoy 44009 (E Delaware Bay), Determinisitc

10. Buoy 44025 (E New York Harbor), Deterministic

11. Buoy 44025 (E NY Harbor), Wave Ensembles

12. Buoys 45007 & 45149 (Great Lakes)

13. Spatial Hs maps Spatial fields of modeled wave heights, types of plots – Maximum wave-height swath (from wave ensembles), give an integrated view of maximum predicted waves – Probabilities for wave heights larger than 7m (from wave ensembles) – Spatial fields of wave heights from deterministic models

14. Wave Ensembles, Max wave-height swath

15. Wave Ensembles, Swath of P(Hs > 7m)

16. Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

17. Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

18. Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

19. Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

20. Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

21. Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

22. Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

23. Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven