1. APPLICATION OF REMOTE SENSING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT IN SOMALIA – Case Study in Puntland Ambrose Oroda Ronald Vargas, Simon Oduori and Christian Omuto 12 th June, 2007. Nairobi, Kenya

2. BACKGROUND Lack of proper natural resources management can result in: Significant reduction in the production potential of natural resources. Environmental degradation, particularly of rangelands and range resources. However, anthropogenic impacts are often worsened by natural phenomena such as droughts.

3. DROUGHT Drought refers to a period of months or years when an area or a region experiences a deficiency in its water supply due to consistent below average precipitation: –Meteorological drought – Consistently below average precipitation. –Agricultural droughts – insufficient water supply for crop production or ecological production of the range. –Hydrological drought – below average water reserves in the sources such as the aquifer system.

4. Impacts of droughts can, however, be worsened by anthropogenic mismanagement of natural resources. There is, therefore, a need to develop a methodology that can provide reliable and rapid information decision support in environmental management. DROUGHTS CONT.

5. Consequences of drought in the context of the study area Decreased water supply Increase in livestock diseases Livestock deaths Crippling of the economic sector resulting in loss of income, increased poverty, etc. Environmental degradation leading to mass migration – “environmental refugees” Famines and subsequently malnutrition Social instability: Impacts of drought can also be looked at sector-wise

6. Significance of this study Droughts like many other natural disasters have been on the increase. The economic, social and environmental costs of droughts have increased dramatically (Donald Wilhite, 2000). There has been prolonged periods of dry spells in the recent years over sub-Saharan Africa (Hare and Ogallo, 1992). Methodologies and seasonal forecasts have always been lacking – and this is made worse where there are no central management systems (Thomas Downing and Richard Washington, 2002). Remote sensing has been found to be a useful tool in accurate and timely assessment and monitoring of environmental conditions including droughts.

7. Objective This study was to assess and test applicability of remote sensing in measuring the phenological dynamics and physiognomic variability of vegetation in two study areas of Somalia as an indicator to assessing drought events.

8. METHODOLOGY STUDY SITES

10. METHODOLOGY CONT. Remote sensing –Acquisition of Multi-temporal, multi-spectral and multi-resolution remote sensing products (between 1973 and 2005) –Using Idrisi software performed a temporal-spatial analysis of vegetation to show impacts of settlements on physiognomic conditions –WINDISP 5 software was used to generate NDVI data from NOAA-GAC data (1982 and 2002) to assess drought events –VEDAS software was used to generate NDVI data from SPOT and MODIS images.

11. METHODOLOGY CONT. Fieldwork –Physiognomic assessment of the study area to verify different land cover classes - Ground- truthing. –Questionnaire administration to gather: Indigenous knowledge Historical memory of environmental conditions including years of drought.

12. RESULTS_1 – Temporal-spatial assessment of drought conditions Very Severe drought Less severe drought Limited or no drought

13. VI = (NDVI i – NDVI min ) (NDVI max – NDVI min ) RESULTS_1 CONT.

14. RESULTS_2 Assessment of phenological dynamics and physiognomic variability, and other environmental conditions

15. Results_3

16. The results show that: The southern study site receives more rainfall than the northern study area. Similarly the southern study has more vegetation cover than the northern one. There is very close correlation between the measured ET and ET derived using RS. RESULTS_2 & 3

17. RESULTS_4: Annual NDVI vis-à-vis LTM - NOAA Northern study area Southern study area

18. RESULTS_5 – Assessment of drought vis-à-vis years of reported droughts – NORTHERN STUDY SITE

19. RESULTS_6 – Assessment of drought using RS vis-à-vis years of reported droughts – Southern Study site

20. RESULTS_7 – Annual SPOT-NDVI vis-à-vis Years of reported drought

21. RESULTS_5, 6 & 7: Show that: There was great correlation between the field measured information and remote sensing information. Field results (local knowledge) show droughts in 1974-1976, 1984, 1990 – 1992 and 2001 – 2004. Drought periods were significantly identified with RS in the years 1988 – 1994 and 2003 – 2004 using SPOT NDVI.

22. RESULTS_6-Comparative view of SPOT NDVI images to assess droughts NDVI for May 2000 – Non drought year Severe drought No drought Drought NDVI for May 2004 – Drought year Severe drought No drought Drought

23. RESULTS_7: Comparative view of SPOT NDVI Images Severe drought No drought Drought NDVI for June 2000 NDVI for June 2004

24. RESULTS_8

25. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS There was great correlation between the field measured information and remote sensing information. Remote sensing has good potential in the assessment of drought and can be employed in the accurate and near-real time assessment of environmental conditions.