1. Jump to first page Online Games Past Through Future Greg Costikyan Chief Design Officer, Unplugged Games costik@ungames.com http://www.costik.com

2. Jump to first page Online Games Past Through Future Evolution Business Models Technology

3. Jump to first page Me n 27 published games n MadMaze (1st online game with 1m+ players n Games industry analyst & consultant n Founder & Chief Design Officer, Unplugged Games n Write about games industry.

4. Jump to first page Evolution n It Didn’t Begin with Doom 1969: Plato 1978: MUD 1984–90s: Era of the COLs 1985: Habitat (persistent world) 1988: Modem Wars 1993: Doom (& DWANGO) 1995: Low Latency Start-Ups 1996: The End of Connect-Time The Boxopoly Discovers Online Gamesville 1997: Ultima Online 1999: Aggregators Mutate EverQuest

5. Jump to first page Today n Three Markets: Ad-supported mass audience Retail Purchase, Free Online Play Persistent World w/ Monthly Charge n New Entrants to Mass Audience Games EA.com, Games.com [Hasbro], PureSkill [Walker Digital/Priceline], –Sony n New Genres for Persistent Worlds Anarchy Online, Sovereign n Online Play now Standard for PC Retail Build Site vs. Work with Aggregator

6. Jump to first page Near Term Future n New Game Styles Neverwinter Nights n Proprietary Mass-Audience Games The importance of Euchre Licenses; Reiner Knizia n Niche Audiences Simutronics, Skotos.net, GameGate, Warcry n Indy Games Movement Sissyfight, Shockwave.com n The Search for the Middle Ground n Online Console Gaming Chimaera or Reality?

7. Jump to first page Business Models n Forrester Claims $1b US Market in 1999 I Want What They’re Smoking—Maybe $400m Tops n Three Viable Models Now Ad Supported Mass Audience (Prize-Based, Classic) Buy at Retail, Play for Free (Quake III) But at Retail + Monthly Fee (EverQuest) n Viable (?) Near-Term Models Free Client + Monthly Fee Pay for Components (Achaea) Shareware Revival

8. Jump to first page Technology n Broadband Does Nothing for Latency User Customization, Easy Component & Update Distribution The Death of Retail; Revival of the Doom Model n Voice-over-IP Socialization; Key Technology for Consoles? n Streaming Media Completely Irrelevant n Distributed Processing Harnesses Enormous Resources Security & Charge Model Problems

9. Jump to first page This is What Computer Games Were Meant to Be n Games are social activities. n The single-user of the PC has warped them in peculiar ways. n As broadband spreads, online will swallow conventional PC gaming

10. Jump to first page The Future is Late, but Not Cancelled n 3 years ago, the analysts were wildly optimistic. n We predict things on a linear curve, but growth is parabolic-- falling below initially, but then shooting far above. n We’re now poised for takeoff. n The future’s so bright….

11. Jump to first page Presentation may be downloaded from: www.costik.com/pres/iirLondon/ Questions & Queries to: Greg Costikyan costik@ungames.com