1. Presented to the Board of Trustees Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Riverside, California February 10 th, 2009 Upland Unified School District

2. 2 The DDP Philosophy Projections: Residence vs. Actual Enrollment Facilities should be located where the students live Reasoning: Reduced District transportation cost Increased ability to conduct long term facility planning Increased access for walking students Accurately determine location of new facilities or consolidation of surplus facilities Increased ability to identify future population trends Attendance boundary adjustments are based upon student location Programs locations can be better aligned to student population Actual school enrollments do not necessary reflect area demographics There is a disconnect of true demographic trends and where students attend school Impossible to predict future students school of choice School consolidation should be based upon area student population Programs can be moved to other schools School enrollment is influenced by many non geographic variables (Variables can mask true facility needs and demographic trends) Curriculum or special programs Intra-district transfers/open enrollment District policy Capacity relative to other schools (overflow) Etc…

3. 3 Deliverables/Data Scope of Work Map 08/09 student data by residence. Create student population projection by study area for 2009/10 to the 2015/16 by residence. Create a student transfer analysis Produce report* detailing methodology, maps, charts and findings. *Pages 13, 18 and 19 to be updated Data Annual geocoded student data from the 05/06 to the 08/09 school year District current attendance area configuration divided into 200 individual study areas Annual area birth data by zip code Student mobility by attendance area Future planned residential housing units

4. 4 GIS Data - Streets Data collection starts with obtaining a street database

5. 5 GIS Data – Attendance Areas School locations are input and attendance areas are created

6. 6 GIS Data – Study Areas The district is further divided into small geographic regions called study areas Each study area is coded to the elementary, middle and high school of residence Analysis is done at the study area level. Study areas are used to create future attendance areas

7. 7 GIS Data - Students Students are matched to the database by their given residence address

8. 8 GIS Data – Future Development Planned future residential development is researched and input

9. 9 Projection Factors – Correlation Between Births* and Kindergarten Class Size Sources: Births by Zip Code -California Department of Health Kindergarten Class – Upland U.S.D. reported CBEDS *Zip Code data does not correspond exactly with the Upland U.S.D. boundary Analysis assumes students start kindergarten five years after birth There is a correlation between the number of births in an area and the number of kindergarten students 5 years later

10. 10 Projection Factors – Future Kindergarten Classes Sources: Births by Zip Code -California Department of Health *Zip Code data does not correspond exactly with the Upland U.S.D. boundary Future kindergarten class size is estimated by comparing the ratio of past birth data

11. 11 Projection Factors - Mobility Calculated for each grade at a study area level Measures the migration of students in and out of the district. Including move ins, move outs, new students from infill housing, drop outs, private school movement, etc… Applied to existing and future students by elementary attendance area The location and timing of the net change has a greater impact on the projections than the reasons behind it. Areas with a mobility above 1.000 are experiencing a positive migration pattern Mobility is used to estimate future student migration patterns

12. 12 Projection Factors – Student Yield Factors and Residential Development The number of future students is estimated using the development phasing schedule and a student yield factor

13. 13 Projection Calculations Calculated for each of the district 200 Study Areas Ability to plan at a neighborhood level Based upon student data October 2008/09 and historical student data from 2005/06 – 2007/08 Based upon actual student residence rather than current school of enrollment. Graduate 12th grade; Move up other grades Based upon three (3) factors that effect student population Incoming kindergarten class (partially determined from recent birth data by zip code) New residential development and Student Yield Factors Mobility - Measures the migration of students in and out of the district. Including move ins, move outs, new students from infill housing, drop outs, private school movement, etc

14. 14 Projections Calculated for Each Study Area Analysis can be completed at the district wide level, by attendance area or by an individual study area

15. 15 F08/09 District-wide Projections

16. 16 F08/09 District-wide Projections

17. 17 Attendance Area Projections by Residence

18. 18 Attendance Area Projections by Residence

19. 19 Student Transfer Study - Matrices Students attending Magnolia ES Students residing in Magnolia ES Students attend and reside in Magnolia ES

20. 20 Student Transfer Study - Matrices Why are the Matrices so important? Facility/Boundary planning is more efficient and accurate when based on residence instead of enrollment Consolidation candidate based on enrollment is Sierra Vista ES Consolidation candidate based on residence is Magnolia ES

21. 21 Student Transfer Study - Analysis Transfers into Pepper Tree = 296 Residing out of district = 48 Total in-district transfers = 248

22. 22 Student Transfer Study - Analysis 142 of the 248 transfers reside in the corridor between 16 th and the 210 fwy

23. 23 What Next? Walk Distance Analysis- Sample* *Presented to the Pasadena USD Board June 6 th, 2008

24. 24 What Next? Walk Distance Analysis- Sample* 1 Mile Walk Distance of Altadena E.S. 589 K-5 Students Reside 111 2nd graders 168 students attend Altadena E.S. 51 students attend Longfellow E.S. 20 students are in a special program *Presented to the Pasadena USD Board June 6 th, 2008

25. 25 Summary The Upland USD experienced growth in the late 1990’s causing a “bubble” of relatively larger class sizes. The matriculation of the bubble student classes, economic troubles, etc.. has resulted in smaller elementary school classes leading to a decline in overall enrollment for the past 2 years. Births have remained fairly stable over the last 10 years. Migration patterns tend toward the positive. Potentially 1,100 new housing units over the projection timeframe The student population projections indicate a potential overall K-12 increase of 1,082 students (8.2%). Elem School (K-6) = 350 Junior High (7-8) = 319 High School (9-12) = 413 Elem School (K-6) = 2.6% Junior High (7-8) = 2.4% High School (9-12) = 3.2% The impact of students from new residential units is the main cause of the potential growth. Projections calculated including only College Park (currently under construction) indicate an overall K-12 increase of 240 students (2.5%) Transfer study shows moderate elementary school transfers and minor junior high school transfers. The district currently serves about 1,000 students who reside outside of the district boundaries. With the projections and data gathered DDP can do future requested analysis. Also, with SchoolSite Online the district has in-house analysis tools.

26. 26 Questions?