1. The Missouri Economy Where have we been? Where are we? Where are we going? Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Missouri State University

2. The Missouri Economy is worse than you think But not for the reasons that you think!

3. The Cause? Housing Prices?

4. Year over year change in Housing Prices

5. Year over year change in quarterly GDP

7. US Unemployment Rate

8. Percent of unemployed who are unemployed longer than 27 weeks

9. The ‘True’ Unemployment Rate

10. Percent of employed who are working only part time

11. Percent of Employees who want Full Time Work

12. US Employment (Real and Hypothetical)

15. US Employment—How long to get back to where we were?

17. Recession Comparisons of Employment

18. Which US Industries have lost jobs? Percent of job losses by Industry

19. US Historical Professional and Business Employment

20. US Historical Construction Employment

21. US Historical Manufacturing Employment

23. Job Loss Comparison (Dec 07-Sep 09)

24. Missouri Employment (SA)

25. Which MO Industries have lost jobs? Percent of job losses by Industry

26. Mo Professional and Business Employment

27. Missouri Construction Employment

28. Missouri Manufacturing Employment

29. US and Mo Employment Comparisons

30. 2007-2009 Percent Change in Missouri Taxable Sales

31. What does the decline in employment cost the state of Missouri’s budget? How much would tax revenue be with full employment? Every lost job in Missouri diminishes taxable sales by $16,435 or decreases in sales tax revenue of approximately $1,477. Every job lost in Missouri diminishes total tax collections (income and sales tax) by about $3,600—therefore, we see a decrease of approximately $570 million. This does not include the decrease in gas tax, alcohol, etc. or the increase in costs for greater AFDC, food stamps, Medicaid, unemployment compensation, etc.

32. Also, consider what employment would be at if we didn’t have the ‘bowl effect’ and had grown at the rate in the 1990s. Assume no recession, and employment would be 3,427,000 today—an additional 700,000 jobs or $2.5 billion in the state budget or an increased $11.5 billion in taxable sales compared to today. With the same percentage drop in the current recession? Employment would be 3,058,000 or an increase of 325,000 jobs compared to today—an additional $1.2 billion in the state budget or an increased $5.3 billion compared to today

33. Economic Growth Comparisons

34. Questions??