1. Flood Risk Modeling in Thailand … and more … Alexander Lotsch Commodity Risk Management Group Agriculture and Rural Development The World Bank Group

2. Outline Flood Risk Analysis –Petchabun, upper Pasak River –Modeling Approach Global Disaster and Weather Risk –Global patterns of weather hazards Climate Change –Observed changes and trends

3. Objectives of Flood Analysis in Petchabun Area Support design of an insurance scheme Simulate historical patterns of floods Define flood risk zones Define critical rainfall thresholds for floods Loss assessment with remote sensing Assess agricultural losses

4. Flood Plain Modeling 2 Coupled Models 1) Rainfall-Runoff Model –Digital Elevation Model –Cell-based –Estimates Water Volume 2) Inundation / Flood Plain Model (2-D) –Flood Depth –Flood Duration –Drainage

5. Flood Modeling Output Multi-day Inundation Depth Duration Extent Flash Floods are secondary Cross-Validation with satellite observations and geo-information analysis

6. What is Remote Sensing? Earth Observation –Land, Oceans, Atmosphere In the Air and in Space –Air-borne vs. Space-borne –Geostationary vs. Orbital Sensor Technologies –Optical, Thermal, Infrared, Microwave, Radar etc. –Resolution (“kilometers” - ”meters” - ”centimeters”) –Active vs. Passive

7. Benefits of Remote Sensing Spatially Continuous Data Acquisition Routine Revisiting Capabilities Regional Coverage Digital Data Processing and Manipulation Digital Data Integration (GIS etc.) Cost-effective Modeling

8. Flood Detection using Satellite Observations Synthetic Aperture Radar, e.g. Radarsat Penetrates clouds Detects surface water

9. Flood detection, September 2002 Land Use Floods in Paddy Rice

10. Challenges Digital Terrain Data Hydro-meteorological and streamflow data Validation Computation and Model Choice Flood Risk Zoning –Design of an Insurance Scheme

11. Outline Flood Risk Analysis –Petchabun, upper Pasak River –Modeling Approach Global Disaster and Weather Risk –Global patterns of weather hazards Climate Change –Observed changes and trends

12. Global Disaster Risk by Hazard Economic Loss (% GDP)

13. Global Disaster Risk by Hazard Mortality

14. Drought Risk: Economic Loss

15. Drought Risk: Mortality

16. Change Climate – Weather Risk

18.  NDVI [Std. Dev.] 36-month SPI June-August 2001 NH Drought & NDVI Patterns wetdry June-August 2002

19. Thank you!