1. Assessing conservation priorities: the African Vertebrates Databank (AVD) Istituto di Ecologia Applicata Via L.Spallanzani, 32 00161 Rome ITALY email: iea@mclink.it Luigi Boitani Dept. Animal Biology, University of Rome

2. Participating Institutions IUCN/SSC Conservation International - CABS Natural History Museum – London University of Cambridge Natural History Museum – Copenhagen Birdlife International Istituto di Ecologia Applicata University of Rome

3. Project goals Produce a continental scale conservation tool for African vertebrates This major goal is achieved by: –building a data bank on African vertebrates with the aim of providing the raw data for future applications and analyses on conservation options and priorities –modeling actual and potential species distribution

4. Conservation Needs Broad scale planning (eventually global) –Metapopulation approach –Identification of core areas and corridors –…. which implies –Detailed knowledge on actual species distribution –Extensive data on species ecology and biology –Spatially explicit predicting tools

5. GIS modeling  Cost effective approach  Maximizes the information obtainable from the few data sets available  Updateable distributions  Repeatable approach

6. Three (four) pieces of information  Species Extent of Occurrence  Environmental variables  Species-environment relationship +  Validation data set and procedures

7. Other projects with similar approach: African Mammal Databank (1999) Ecological Network for the Italian Vertebrates (current) Asian Mammal Databank (submitted to the EU)

8. Distribution modeling AVD integrates two (maybe three) levels: –"Blotch" distribution –Categorical-Discrete distributions obtained through a deterministic approach based on GIS overlay procedures and maybe –Probabilistic-Continuous distribution models based on statistically supported GIS overlay procedures.

9. “Blotch” distribution Extent of Occurence of the Cheetah Acinonyx jubatus certain possible

10. Categorical Discrete Model Area of Occupancy of the Cheetah Acinonyx jubatus

11. Probabilistic Continuous Model Suitability surface for the Cheetah Acinonyx jubatus

12. Categorical Discrete Model Validation The AMD project was validated with field work carried out in four selected countries in Africa Botswana, Cameroon, Morocco, Uganda 427 plots were allocated at random within the four countries The presence/absence of each species at each of the predetermined points was verified by: direct observation in loco collection of publications and scientific reports interviews with local experts/authorities/inhabitants In each country a team composed by a researcher from a local Institution and one IEA staff member carried out the field work

13. Categorical Discrete Model Validation Validation parameters Valid plots = all plots falling inside the Extent of Occurrence + all other plots in which the species was found during field work Index of Accordance = Percentage of valid plots in accordance with the Categorical Discrete model

14. Categorical Discrete Model Validation The AVD limited budget resources will prevent direct field work Similar scheme will be implemented using known species locations from bibliography

15. Categorical Discrete Model Products Surfaces and percentage of each suitability class within the Extent of Occurrence of the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus)

16. Categorical Discrete Model Products Fragmentation indexes of the Area of Occupancy (all suitable and moderately suitable areas) of the cheetah (Acinoyx jubatus)

17. Categorical Discrete Model Products Efficacy of protected areas for the species Vulnerable (VU: A1d+2d,C1) as A. jubatus Endangered (EN: C2a, D1) as A. j. hencki NW African cheetah

18. Management tools The different types of distribution models produced can be included in management tools of increasing information content: –Blotch distribution hot spots identification effectiveness of protected areas –Categorical Discrete Distribution Model population fragmentation management strategies for conservation –Probabilistic Continuous Distribution Model metapopulation PVA corridors identification

19. Mammals biodiversity hotspots 281 species of large mammals

20. Mammals biodiversity hotspots 281 species of large mammals

21. AMD Products a printed volume containing for each of the 281 species: Taxonomic notes IUCN threat category Available ecological information Bibliography Extent of Occurrence (“Blotch”) Categorical Discrete Model Probabilistic Continuous Model Comments and conservation issues set of 10 CD-ROM with the digital version of all the above information web site with all data sets: –www.gisbau.uniroma1.it/amd

22. AVD: where we are ? Mammals: –Rodents –Bats –Insectivores –Others… Birds Amphibians Herps –Snakes –Lizards –Others ? Fishes ??

23. Why modeling? And how Purpose of distribution maps –…. –  conservation: maps must be current and at the appropriate resolution/scale for each taxon Maps ARE models !! Increasing distribution information: –Points (if qualified: date, accuracy, species biology) (good for transformation into blotches and/or for inductive modeling and/or for model validation) –Polygons(if qualified) –Grids (if all cells are qualified) –Models (if validated)