1. Lent Term Seminars 2012 London and the High Speed Rail debate: How do we get the Right Line? Mark Bostock | 20 February 2012

3. “I'm in no doubt that the key challenge is to ensure the transport networks can support the success of one, the growing urban catchments; two, key inter-urban corridors; and three, key international gateways. These should be the economic priorities for the UK because they are both highly productive and growing. These key transport links are heavily used today and show congestion and reliability problems, which will get worse. These are the places where transport constraints hold back economic growth.” Eddington Transport Study, 1 December 2006

4. “ This, by any standards is an extraordinary tale: a story of a grand engineering project in a country that distrusts grand projects” The Right Line

5. BR Proposal vs Arup Route

6. The Arup Route …it had two unique advantages: it demolished no houses… …and could potentially bring huge regeneration benefits to the blighted areas through which it would run.

7. The Arup Alignment… …a deliverable proposition …for public benefit The HS1 Route

8. International Objective High Speed London to Continental Europe Commuter Objective Increased capacity, speed and quality Overall Transport Objectives Modal shift via park and ride New transport spine for East Thames corridor Potential for further high speed routes to the north Development objectives Open up the Thames Gateway for regeneration Regenerate the derelict inner city areas Public Benefit Case

9. Financial 3.4 (Net rail revenues) Transport user benefits 3.8 (Time savings and reduced congestion) Wider economic benefits 3.8 (Enabling central London growth, reduced travel costs and improving labour markets) Regeneration 10.0 (15,000 homes, 70,000 jobs) (Supporting Government social and economic development public objectives along Route) Present value (60 years) 17.6 HS1 capital cost and commuter services 7.3 HS1 Benefits Source Colin Buchen, Economic Impact of HS1 for LCR January 2009 £ billion (2008 prices)

10. Original London Connections: 1989

11. “ The UK approach to infrastructure investment has in general been timid, uncoordinated, incremental, wasteful in it’s procurement and insufficiently targeted to supporting balanced and sustainable growth in the economy” Foreword, National Infrastructure Plan, HM Treasury, October 2010 Infrastructure Investment

12. London Airports with basic infrastructure

13. Airport charges index and distribution charges

15. Taking the airport to the railway

16. Original through Heathrow Proposal

17. “As a first stage, we have asked the company to develop a proposal for an entirely new line between London and the west midlands; that would enable faster journeys to other destinations in the north of England and Scotland, using both existing lines and a new high-speed rail network.” “I see a strong case for this new line approaching London via a Heathrow international hub station on the Great Western line, to provide a direct four- way interchange between the airport, the new north-south line, existing Great Western rail services and Crossrail, into the heart of London.” 15 th January 2009:Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons

18. “ I see a strong case for this new line approaching London via a Heathrow international hub station on the Great Western line, to provide a direct four-way interchange between the airport, the new north-south line, existing Great Western rail services and Crossrail, into the heart of London ” 15 th January 2009: Secretary of State Hoon’s statement to the House of Commons

19. The Adonis Alignment: March 2010

20. High Speed Rail Key Dates 28 June 2007Ruth Kelly appointed SoS Transport (15 Months) 9 September Conservative Party supports Arup Proposals 3 October 2008Geoffrey Hoon appointed SoS (8 Months) 15 January 2009 R3 supported by Labour Government HS2 Ltd set up to investigate high speed London/West Midlands February 2009 Conservative Party confirms its support for Arup proposals 5 June 2009The Lord Adonis appointed SoS (10 months) December 2009 HS2 hands its report to the government 11 March 2010 High Speed 2 report and supporting studies published with the government's command paper on high-speed rail Mawhinney Review Established

21. Heathrow Hub Proposals

22. The Heathrow Hub Connections

23. High Speed Rail Key Dates 6 May 2010General Election – Conservative/Lib victory R3 cancelled 12 May 2010Philip Hammond appointed SoS (16 months) 21 July 2010 Mawhinney Review Reports 4 October 2010 Government route for consultation announced 20 December 2010 Government published a slightly revised line of route for public consultation 14 October 2011Justine Greening appointed SoS 1 November 2011 House of Commons Transport Select Committee Report Published 12 December 2011 Labour Party supports Arup proposals 10 January 2012 Government Route announced

24. The Government Alignment 2010

25. HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012

26. The two propositions Indicates tunneled route Government’s proposalHeathrow Hub

27. The two propositions Government’s proposalHeathrow Hub HS2 route designed to bypass Heathrow - subsequent retrofits attempt to provide missing Heathrow, Great Western Main Line (& HS1) connections Aligned with 2009 cross-party political consensus – direct connection between Heathrow, Great Western Main Line, Crossrail, HS2 (& UK motorway network) PhasingPhase 0 - 2021 Phase 1 – 2026 Phase 2 - 2033 Phase 3 – ? Phase 0 – 2018 Phase 1 – 2022 Phase 2 – 2026 Western Connecti on to Heathrow from GWML relief lines HS2 London to Birmingha m via Old Oak Common (link to HS1) HS2 spur (branch line) from HS2 to Heathrow HS2 spur extended to form loop to HS2 at Old Oak Common Heathrow Hub on Great Western Main Line, served by all intercity, interregional and Crossrail trains HS2 connects HS1, London, Heathrow Hub & existing Chiltern, West Coast and GW Main Lines HS2 extended to Birmingham, West Midlands and the North Cost £bn (Gov.est.) exc RAB funding £0.7 = £0.7 £16.5 + £0.7 = £17.2 £2.5-3.9 (spur) + £17.2 = £19.7 - 21.1 £1.5-1.6 (loop) + £19.7-21.1 = £21.2 - 22.7 £1.25 (GWML Hub) - £1.25 (HHL funded) = £0 £16.5 (HS2) + £3.0 (M40 corridor via Heathrow) - £1.0 (HS2 Hub HHL funded) - £1.0 (omit Old Oak) = £17.5 (£16.6 using Arup estimate) Distance156.8km167.2km Journey time (Gov.est.) London-Birmingham 49m with OOC stop (all trains call) London-Birmingham 48m non-stop, 52m Hub stop

28. Heathrow growing within existing limits “BAA is forecasting that the load factor will increase from 73% to 78.5% by 2020 and the average number of seats per aircraft from 195 in 2007 to 240 in 2020” - Appendix 4.2, Competition Commission Final Report 2009 “61% of passenger travel emissions generated by kiss & fly, taxi and minicab journeys which all generate four trips per return flight” – Heathrow 2009 Carbon Footprint & Surface Access Strategy, BAA Within existing limits (480,000 ATM’s, no mixed mode, 2 runways, 42,000 car park cap, 147km2 noise contour) Per annum figures Actual 2009 (CAA)Forecast 2020Forecast 2030 (full A380) Commercial ATM’s 466,000480,000 Total terminal pax 65.8m90.2m95m Average pax/ATM 141188198 Origin +Destination pax 40.9m55.9m (Assume 2009 %)58.9m (Assume2009 %) Public transport modal share 40%41% (With Crossrail)41.5% (Old Oak Common) Public transport pax 16.4m22.9m24.4m Private vehicle pax 24.5m33.0m34.5m Additional private vehicle pax from 2009 + 8.5m (35%)+10.0m (41%)

29. HS2 Alignment: Jan 2012

30. 'Frontier Economics. 'Connecting for growth:the role of Britain's hub airport in economic recovery': A Report prepared for Heathrow, September 2011' GDP contributionEmployment Heathrow aviation £3.4 billion50,000 Long haul visitor spending £6.1 billion 130,000 Stop-over passenger spending £1.6 billion40,000 Total £11.1 billion220,000 The benefits to the British economy of aviation at Heathrow Note1: Our estimate of employment is of direct employment in the aviation sector as defined by Annual Business Inquiry. There are around 76,00 people employed at the airport and at Waterside across aviation and related sectors, such as hotels, catering, and other transport providers. Note 2: This table does not include the impact of spending in the UK by visitors arriving on short haul flights.

31. An integrated approach?

32. 1980sBR point to point approach to CTRL 1990sHS1 success in taking wider view of transport and environment 2000sEuropean experience in integrating rail/air and twinning road/rail 2010s European Commission transport policy mandates integrated intermodal approach 2010sHS2 ignores both experience and policy Conclusion

33. Support Europe’s leading Hub airport Full integration between aviation, classic rail and High Speed Rail Consensus on long term strategy and funding Democratic legitimacy London competitiveness