1. Making Globalization Work for Developing Countries JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ Sir Winston Scott Memorial Lecture Central Bank of Barbados November 2007

2. Discontent with Globalization: Outcomes Failures in development: contrast between success in East Asia and disappointments elsewhere Failures in development: contrast between success in East Asia and disappointments elsewhere Latin America:growth even in the 1990s was half of what it was in earlier decadesLatin America:growth even in the 1990s was half of what it was in earlier decades Benefits of growth going to upper income groups Benefits of growth going to upper income groups Growing poverty, unemployment, crime Growing poverty, unemployment, crime Growing fraction of population in informal sector, without job protections Growing fraction of population in informal sector, without job protections Africa:decline in per-capita incomeAfrica:decline in per-capita income Economies transitioning from Communism to marketEconomies transitioning from Communism to market Given inefficiencies of communism, success should have been easy Given inefficiencies of communism, success should have been easy But in fact, there were massive decreases in income, huge increases in poverty But in fact, there were massive decreases in income, huge increases in poverty

3. The World is not flat… And in many ways it is getting less flat Growing inequality between countries Growing inequality between countries Standard economic theory predicted convergence, instead, there was divergenceStandard economic theory predicted convergence, instead, there was divergence Growing inequality within most countries Growing inequality within most countries

4. Globalization has played an important role in these failures  Predictable effect on inequality within advanced industrial economies Effects on developing countries harder to explain Effects on developing countries harder to explain Unfair trade treaties have exacerbated problems in developing countriesUnfair trade treaties have exacerbated problems in developing countries Problems compounded by asymmetric liberalizationProblems compounded by asymmetric liberalization Africa has neither resources nor education to take advantage of new opportunitiesAfrica has neither resources nor education to take advantage of new opportunities

5. Globalization has played an important role in these failures  Latin America followed advice of IMF/WB best “student” of Washington Consensus policiesbest “student” of Washington Consensus policies Capital market liberalization exposed them to huge volatility; privatizations were often corruptCapital market liberalization exposed them to huge volatility; privatizations were often corrupt  Contrast between Transition countries following Washington consensus policies and China and Vietnam (which did not) is marked  Africa exploited even in post-colonial world Exacerbating general problem of inequalityExacerbating general problem of inequality But had been left without the education, technology, and resources to take advantage of new opportunitiesBut had been left without the education, technology, and resources to take advantage of new opportunities

6. Further problems: Finance Growing instability — 100 crises in last 30 years Growing instability — 100 crises in last 30 years Money is flowing from poor countries to rich Money is flowing from poor countries to rich But, in spite of advances in ability to slice and dice risk, poor countries still bear brunt of risk But, in spite of advances in ability to slice and dice risk, poor countries still bear brunt of risk Meaning that many are burdened by huge debt paymentsMeaning that many are burdened by huge debt payments One source of crisesOne source of crises Much done to protect investor interests Much done to protect investor interests But little done to protect the environment in developing countries from investors But little done to protect the environment in developing countries from investors Who use limited liability to protect themselves after taking out natural resourcesWho use limited liability to protect themselves after taking out natural resources Bilateral investment treaties are one-sidedBilateral investment treaties are one-sided

7. Further Problems: Trade International trade regime is unfair to developing countries International trade regime is unfair to developing countries The Uruguay Round Agenda focused on the interests of rich countries; it included The Uruguay Round Agenda focused on the interests of rich countries; it included Services - but not unskilled labor intensive services;Services - but not unskilled labor intensive services; Subsidies - but not agricultural subsidies;Subsidies - but not agricultural subsidies; Intellectual property rightsIntellectual property rights Most of projected benefits accrued to rich countries Most of projected benefits accrued to rich countries 70% of gains to developed countries70% of gains to developed countries The 48 Least Developed Countries were actually left worse offThe 48 Least Developed Countries were actually left worse off

8. System is unbalanced, stacked against poor countries System is unbalanced, stacked against poor countries Average OECD tariff on goods from poor countries is 4x higher than on goods from other OECD countriesAverage OECD tariff on goods from poor countries is 4x higher than on goods from other OECD countries Rich countries cost poor countries 3x more in trade restrictions than their total development assistanceRich countries cost poor countries 3x more in trade restrictions than their total development assistance Little progress on agricultural issues Little progress on agricultural issues OECD countries continue to subsidize agriculture by 48% of total farm production, just 3% lower than 1986; maintain high tariffsOECD countries continue to subsidize agriculture by 48% of total farm production, just 3% lower than 1986; maintain high tariffs

9. There was a need for a Development Round to address these problems There was a need for a Development Round to address these problems But the Development Round agenda was mostly putting old wine in new bottles But the Development Round agenda was mostly putting old wine in new bottles Some elements were even anti- developmentSome elements were even anti- development And US and EU reneged on their promises And US and EU reneged on their promises As it is, the round does not deserve to be called a development round As it is, the round does not deserve to be called a development round

10. Even if successfully completed, would do little to benefit developing countries Even if successfully completed, would do little to benefit developing countries Problem not just in agricultureProblem not just in agriculture Also in manufacturing — escalating tariffsAlso in manufacturing — escalating tariffs US refusal to go along with opening up to poorest countriesUS refusal to go along with opening up to poorest countries EBP (Everything but what you produce) EBP (Everything but what you produce) Non-tariff barriersNon-tariff barriers Risk if completed — belief that it was a development round, return to earlier regime Risk if completed — belief that it was a development round, return to earlier regime Risk if fails — continuation of bilateral trade agreements Risk if fails — continuation of bilateral trade agreements Even more unfair to developing countriesEven more unfair to developing countries Undermining multilateral trading systemUndermining multilateral trading system

11. Further Problems: Knowledge One of main problems facing developing countries is reducing gap in knowledge One of main problems facing developing countries is reducing gap in knowledge But unbalanced intellectual property regime makes this even more difficult But unbalanced intellectual property regime makes this even more difficult And makes access to life saving medicines more difficult And makes access to life saving medicines more difficult Developing countries have called for a Development Oriented Intellectual Property Regime Developing countries have called for a Development Oriented Intellectual Property Regime

12. Further Problems: Global Warming Another arena in which global social injustices are being played out Major source of pollution in the North Major source of pollution in the North Major consequences in the South Major consequences in the South

13. Discontent with Globalization: Other Values Dominated by Economics Environment sacrificed for short-run commercial interests Environment sacrificed for short-run commercial interests Reduced access to life-saving medicines Reduced access to life-saving medicines While no compensation provided to developing countries for environmental services While no compensation provided to developing countries for environmental services BiodiversityBiodiversity Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration And no protection for traditional knowledge And no protection for traditional knowledge Traditional cultures weakened, and WTO rules make support difficult Traditional cultures weakened, and WTO rules make support difficult Democratic processes undermined, e.g. by IMF conditionality Democratic processes undermined, e.g. by IMF conditionality

14. The Successes of Globalization China and India, with 2.4 billion people, growing at historically unprecedented rates China and India, with 2.4 billion people, growing at historically unprecedented rates Continuing the successes of the East Asia Miracle, which Japan had led beginning in the early 1960sContinuing the successes of the East Asia Miracle, which Japan had led beginning in the early 1960s Countries that were marginalized, excluded from the global economy are closing the gap between themselves and advanced industrial countriesCountries that were marginalized, excluded from the global economy are closing the gap between themselves and advanced industrial countries China at close to 10% for 30 years China at close to 10% for 30 years India recently at more than 8% India recently at more than 8% Engine of global economic growthEngine of global economic growth Global growth at 5% for past couple years has been almost historically unprecedented Global growth at 5% for past couple years has been almost historically unprecedented Increased demand for commodities has helped developing countries Increased demand for commodities has helped developing countries

15. Historical Perspective 1820: China had 1/3 of global GDP, India more than 15% 1820: China had 1/3 of global GDP, India more than 15% 1814-1828: Industrial Revolution and tariff barriers knocked out Indian exports 1814-1828: Industrial Revolution and tariff barriers knocked out Indian exports Indian textiles exports to Britain fell by two- thirdsIndian textiles exports to Britain fell by two- thirds British exports of textiles to India rose five timesBritish exports of textiles to India rose five times Opium wars and other external and internal problems had contributed to China’s declining share Opium wars and other external and internal problems had contributed to China’s declining share

16. Share of Global GDP 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 10001600182019131973 China India 1998

17. Globalization has played major role in their success Globalization:the closer integration of the countries of the world as a result of lower communication and transportation costs and reduction of man-made barriers to movements of goods, services, people, capital, ideas, knowledge Globalization:the closer integration of the countries of the world as a result of lower communication and transportation costs and reduction of man-made barriers to movements of goods, services, people, capital, ideas, knowledge 50 percent compounded annual decline in telecommunication cost in the 1990s 50 percent compounded annual decline in telecommunication cost in the 1990s Fiber optic glut during the Internet Bubble slashed telecom costFiber optic glut during the Internet Bubble slashed telecom cost Scanners convert data to image file - 160 pages per minute.Scanners convert data to image file - 160 pages per minute. Developing countries have benefited through Developing countries have benefited through Access to marketsAccess to markets Access to technologyAccess to technology

18. Discontent with Globalization: Processes Global governance is undemocratic Global governance is undemocratic Voice of developing countries is not heardVoice of developing countries is not heard But even when it is heard, it is not listened toBut even when it is heard, it is not listened to Dominated by North and by special interestsDominated by North and by special interests Rules made by advanced nations for advanced nations Rules made by advanced nations for advanced nations For their interests, or for special interests within them For their interests, or for special interests within them Problems of global governance highlighted by problems at the World Bank and IMFProblems of global governance highlighted by problems at the World Bank and IMF Governance problems contribute to bad outcomesGovernance problems contribute to bad outcomes

19. Failures of global governance also reflect failures in “democracy” within advanced industrial countries Failures of global governance also reflect failures in “democracy” within advanced industrial countries Special interests dominating national interestsSpecial interests dominating national interests Problems aggravated by “smokestack structure” Problems aggravated by “smokestack structure” Trade ministers meet with other trade ministers to decide on trade issues, with little attention to environmental, health consequencesTrade ministers meet with other trade ministers to decide on trade issues, with little attention to environmental, health consequences Markedly different from way decisions are made within countriesMarkedly different from way decisions are made within countries

20. And globalization, as it has been managed, has undermined democracy And globalization, as it has been managed, has undermined democracy ConditionalitiesConditionalities Reducing the scope for democraticReducing the scope for democraticdecision-making

21. Globalization has made us more interdependent… Globalization has made us more interdependent… …Greater interdependence means greater need for collective action, to act cooperatively Just when the world has greatest need for global economic institutions, confidence in these institutions has waned Just when the world has greatest need for global economic institutions, confidence in these institutions has waned

22. FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM Economic globalization has outpaced “political globalization” Economic globalization has outpaced “political globalization” Views about democracy, social justice, “social solidarity,” even the “rule of law” change at the borderViews about democracy, social justice, “social solidarity,” even the “rule of law” change at the border Democracies have learned how to temper the market economy, to make sure that most individuals benefit Democracies have learned how to temper the market economy, to make sure that most individuals benefit But we have not yet learned how to temper the excesses of globalization But we have not yet learned how to temper the excesses of globalization It has put new demands on the nation state (growing inequality)It has put new demands on the nation state (growing inequality) But reduced their ability to respondBut reduced their ability to respond Part of the reason is that we have not yet democratized globalizationPart of the reason is that we have not yet democratized globalization

23. Matters Have Become Worse in Recent Years… Cold War made Emerging Markets battle fields Cold War made Emerging Markets battle fields Little care about virtues of government (Pinochet)Little care about virtues of government (Pinochet) But considerable concern about limiting alienation of peopleBut considerable concern about limiting alienation of people With end of Cold War there was a choice With end of Cold War there was a choice To pay more attention to human rights, democratic values, global social justice, fundamental values, ORTo pay more attention to human rights, democratic values, global social justice, fundamental values, OR More willingness to engage in economic exploitation and impose doctrinal policiesMore willingness to engage in economic exploitation and impose doctrinal policies U.S. missed opportunity for global leadership, used new position to advance parochial commercial interests, often in “unilateralist” manner U.S. missed opportunity for global leadership, used new position to advance parochial commercial interests, often in “unilateralist” manner Unilateralism especially severe in last six years Unilateralism especially severe in last six years Further weakens ability to have global democratic cooperationFurther weakens ability to have global democratic cooperation

24. NATURE OF OPPOSITION TO ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION Not so much to globalization itself but to the way it has been managed Not so much to globalization itself but to the way it has been managed Economic values dominating other valuesEconomic values dominating other values Undemocratic processesUndemocratic processes And to the particular set of ideologies that underlie the policies And to the particular set of ideologies that underlie the policies Market fundamentalismMarket fundamentalism In developing countries, “Washington Consensus” policiesIn developing countries, “Washington Consensus” policies

25. Change is possible… Indeed, change is inevitable with changing the world Indeed, change is inevitable with changing the world New global geopoliticsNew global geopolitics New technologies, New EconomyNew technologies, New Economy New scarcitiesNew scarcities Climate changeClimate change And globalization has set in motion its own changesAnd globalization has set in motion its own changes Rulings that US cotton subsidies are illegal Rulings that US cotton subsidies are illegal

26. Question is only whether we make the changes before or after a crisis occurs Question is only whether we make the changes before or after a crisis occurs Changes after crises tend to be patchworkChanges after crises tend to be patchwork Setting in motion another crisis at a later dateSetting in motion another crisis at a later date Or we work together today to Make Globalization Work, or at least work better Or we work together today to Make Globalization Work, or at least work better

27. Reforms that would make globalization work better for Developing Countries Trade: A true development round Trade: A true development round If developed world is willing to commit 0.7% of GDP to help poor countries, shouldn’t they also help them by opening up their markets, to give them an opportunity to earn income for themselves?If developed world is willing to commit 0.7% of GDP to help poor countries, shouldn’t they also help them by opening up their markets, to give them an opportunity to earn income for themselves? Generalized Market Access: expanding and extending the EBAGeneralized Market Access: expanding and extending the EBA Opening up markets to poorer and smaller countries Opening up markets to poorer and smaller countries More policy scope: allowing developing countries to do what the developed countries did to advance their own developmentMore policy scope: allowing developing countries to do what the developed countries did to advance their own development Asymmetric consequences of subsidies Asymmetric consequences of subsidies

28. A true development Round Labor market liberalization as well as capital market liberalization Labor market liberalization as well as capital market liberalization Agriculture Agriculture Escalating tariffs Escalating tariffs Non-tariff barriers Non-tariff barriers

29. Intellectual Property A development-oriented intellectual property regime A development-oriented intellectual property regime What separates developed from less developed countries is not just disparity in resources, but disparity in knowledge What separates developed from less developed countries is not just disparity in resources, but disparity in knowledge Also matter of life—access to life saving drugs Also matter of life—access to life saving drugs TRIPs reduced access to drugsTRIPs reduced access to drugs But did not lead to R & D in diseases affecting poor countriesBut did not lead to R & D in diseases affecting poor countries

30. Global Financial Reforms Debt relief Debt relief But unless there are more fundamental reforms, debt problems will arise againBut unless there are more fundamental reforms, debt problems will arise again Shift burden of risk away from developing countriesShift burden of risk away from developing countries Reform of the international reserve system Reform of the international reserve system Expansion of Chiang Mai initiativeExpansion of Chiang Mai initiative Implicit foreign aid from developing countries, through cheap loans to hard-currency governments, is greater than the foreign aid packages they receiveImplicit foreign aid from developing countries, through cheap loans to hard-currency governments, is greater than the foreign aid packages they receive Contributes to global instabilityContributes to global instability

31. The environment Global warming Global warming Matter of global social justiceMatter of global social justice Matter of survivalMatter of survival Environmental responsibility Environmental responsibility And other legal obligations enforced through International Commercial CourtAnd other legal obligations enforced through International Commercial Court Redoing bilateral investment treatiesRedoing bilateral investment treaties Limiting scope Limiting scope No longer enforced through commercial courts No longer enforced through commercial courts

32. Regulating global commerce Other legal reforms, such as ensuring Global competition Other legal reforms, such as ensuring Global competition Enforced through International Competition AuthorityEnforced through International Competition Authority

33. Escaping the Resource Curse Escaping the Resource Curse Expanding the Extractive Industries InitiativeExpanding the Extractive Industries Initiative Only transparent payments tax deductible Only transparent payments tax deductible Ending abusive banking secrecyEnding abusive banking secrecy Model contracts, that ensure developing countries get fair share of value of resourcesModel contracts, that ensure developing countries get fair share of value of resources

34. Global Warming Beyond Kyoto Beyond Kyoto Major achievementMajor achievement But didn’t go far enoughBut didn’t go far enough Developing countries need to be compensated for providing environmental services Developing countries need to be compensated for providing environmental services Rainforest coalition: avoided deforestationRainforest coalition: avoided deforestation All countries need to be induced to cooperate All countries need to be induced to cooperate Global public goodGlobal public good Trade sanctions: worked in the case of ozone-destroying gasesTrade sanctions: worked in the case of ozone-destroying gases Ecological taxes: better to tax bad things than good Ecological taxes: better to tax bad things than good And more likely to reach agreement than on setting common targetsAnd more likely to reach agreement than on setting common targets Standards Standards

35. Foreign Assistance More of it More of it And more effective And more effective Assistance has played an important role in the past Assistance has played an important role in the past And can play an even bigger role in the future And can play an even bigger role in the future Especially with programs based on the successes of the past: East Asia MiracleEspecially with programs based on the successes of the past: East Asia Miracle And providing more country ownershipAnd providing more country ownership

36. Reforming Globalization We can make globalization work We can make globalization work Or at least make it work betterOr at least make it work better Both for the rich and the poorBoth for the rich and the poor In the developing world as well as in the developedIn the developing world as well as in the developed

37. Challenge for Developing Countries Is figuring out how to manage globalization in their own terms Is figuring out how to manage globalization in their own terms So they can enjoy benefits So they can enjoy benefits Without facing downside consequencesWithout facing downside consequences Successful countries have recognized dynamic comparative advantage Successful countries have recognized dynamic comparative advantage Recognizing advantages and disadvantagesRecognizing advantages and disadvantages Location Location Size Size Key role of educationKey role of education Taking advantage of changing global landscapeTaking advantage of changing global landscape Technology Technology Changing global prices Changing global prices Changing geo-politics Changing geo-politics

38. Challenge of developing countries in managing globalization If they fail, the problems of poverty, unemployment, and the environment may get worse If they fail, the problems of poverty, unemployment, and the environment may get worse If they succeed, they will be able to make inroads in the major problems that they face If they succeed, they will be able to make inroads in the major problems that they face