1. CRESCO SPIII Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze SANDRO BOLOGNA bologna@casaccia.enea.it CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006

2. Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse –Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …) –Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione –Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….) –Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

3. Financial Services Mutato contesto socio- economico Public Utilities Health Care Telecommunication Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso

4. The UCTE System: 2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY

5. EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES

6. CyberLayer OrganisationalLayer Intra-dependency Inter-dependency Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure PhysicalLayer

7. Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure Electrical Components generators, transformers, breakers, connecting cables etc Control and supervisory hardware/software components ( Scada/EMS systems ) Electrical Power Operators Independent System Operator for electricity planning and transmission Intra-dependency National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Inter-dependency

8. US CANADA BLACK-OUT Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report

9. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net

10. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the networks property and to understand the emergent behaviors that can take place in the network Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour

11. COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts. (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…) Poisson distribution Random Network Power-law distribution Scale-free Network

12. Present limitations of Complex Systems approach Given a network with N nodes and L links Create a graph with statistically identical topology RESULT: model the static network topology PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems! Evolving networks OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics METHOD : identify the processes that contribute to the network topology develop dynamical models that capture these processes Network as a static graph

13. Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1

14. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted incident that may lead to undesired states Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour

15. Modelling tools for dependability analysis Model checking Extended Petri Nets Fault Tree Bayesian networks

16. Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2

17. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different type of constraints Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour

18. Distribution Network ROMI X X

19. TRANSPORTATION NETWORK X X

20. Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro DApice Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Prof. Antonio Chella PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3

21. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net will model the organization and the operator behaviour to study organizational vulnerability Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour

22. SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH : Human Errors Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI) Technological Grid Human Errors Organisation Human component Physical component Cyber component

23. Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dellImpresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sullElaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4

24. CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading failures or unknown and emergent behaviours Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour

25. Oil Electric Power Transpor- tation Natural Gas Telecom Water Water for Production Cooling Emission reduction Water for Cooling, Emission reduction Water for Cooling, Power for pumping Stations, Storage Control Systems Power for Pump & Lift Stations Control Systems Power for Switchers Power for compressors Storage, Control Systems Power for Signalling, Switchers SCADA Communications SCADA Communications SCADA Communications SCADA Communications Fuel for Generators, Heat Source: Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly 2002 Fuel for Generators,,Lubricants Fuels, Lubricants Fuel for Generators, Fuel Transport Shipping Fuel Transport Shipping Transportation Transpor- tation Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies

26. Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per lInformatica e lAutomazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo) PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5

27. National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center