1. Water and Sustainability in the Columbia Basin Jennifer C. Adam Assistant Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering CSANR Advisory Committee Meeting, Dec 13, 2011

2. Research Expertise  Water resources and hydrologic interactions with Climate change and climate variability Land cover / land use change Socio-economics  Geographic scales of interest Watershed to global Current research emphasis at regional scale  Computer-based modeling

3. Hydrologic Modeling Primer Land Cover Soils Rivers Elevation Algorithms / Assumptions Process- based model Streamflow Evaporation Transpiration Snowpack Soil Moisture etc…

4. Outline  Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand Forecast  Regional Earth System Modeling  Future Directions

5. THE COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST  Background  Team  Modeling capabilities developed  Results

6. The Columbia River Basin: Competing Uses Out of Stream  Agricultural  Municipal  Industrial In Stream  Hydropower  Flood Control  Fish Flows  Navigation  Recreation

7. Background: Need for a Columbia Basin Water Supply & Demand Forecasting  Every 5 years, the Washington State Department of Ecology’s office of the Columbia River (OCR) is required to submit a long-term water supply and demand forecast to the Legislature  Washington State University (WSU) was assigned to develop the 2030s forecast for water supply and out-of- stream demand  Changes in climate and water demand are expected to exacerbate the current complexity of managing the water resources of the basin  The forecast helps improving understanding of where additional water supply is most critically needed, now and in the future

8. Projected Precipitation Change in the Pacific Northwest Region  Precipitation seasonality: decrease in summer, increase in other seasons  Annual precipitation changes uncertain Mote and Salathe 2010

9. Projected Temperature Change in the Pacific Northwest Region  All seasons projected to warm  Annual temperature projections more robust Mote and Salathe 2010

10. Impacts of Warming on Streamflow Seasonality in Snow-Dominant Watersheds

11. Washington State Watershed Types Elsner et al. 2010

12. Watershed Types in the Region Courtesy Alan Hamlet

13. WSU Team  Civil and Environmental Engineering / State of Washington Water Research Center Jennifer Adam, Assistant Professor Michael Barber, Professor and Director of SWWRC Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, Postdoctoral Associate (SWWRC) Dana Pride, Web Designer (SWWRC) Kirti Rajagopalan, PhD Student Shifa Dinesh, PhD Student Matt McDonald, MS Student  Biological Systems Engineering Claudio Stöckle, Professor and Chair Roger Nelson, Research Associate Keyvan Malek, PhD Student  School of Economics Michael Brady, Assistant Professor Jon Yoder, Associate Professor Tom Marsh, Professor and Director of IMPACT Center  Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources Chad Kruger, Director Georgine Yorgey, Research Associate Sylvia Kantor, Research Associate

14. Modeling Capabilities Developed  Started with tools developed at the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG), and added: 1. Integrated surface hydrology and crop systems modeling 2. Inclusion of water management 1. Reservoirs 2. Curtailment 3. Interaction between biophysical and economic decision making models

15. 1. Hydrology/Crop Model Integration 1. Weather (D) 2. Soil Soil layer depths Soil water content 3. Water flux (D) Infiltrated water 4. Crop type Irrigation water = Crop Water Demand /irrigation efficiency Sow date Crop interception capacity Crop phenology Crop uptake (D) Water stress (D) Current biomass (D) Crop Water demand (D) Harvest day Crop Yield VIC Hydrology CropSyst D – communicated daily

16. Crops Modeled  Winter Wheat  Spring Wheat  Alfalfa  Barley  Potato  Corn  Corn, Sweet  Pasture  Apple  Cherry  Lentil  Mint  Hops  Grape, Juice  Grape, Wine  Pea, Green  Pea, Dry  Sugarbeet  Canola  Onions  Asparagus  Carrots  Squash  Garlic  Spinach Generic Vegetables  Grape, Juice  Grass hay  Bluegrass  Hay  Rye grass  Oats  Bean, green  Rye  Barley  Bean, dry  Bean, green Other pastures Lentil/Wheat type  Caneberry  Blueberry  Cranberry  Pear  Peaches Berries Other Tree fruits

17. 2. Inclusion of Water Management

18. 3. Interactions with Economic Modeling

19. Results  A small increase of around 3.0 (±1.2)% in average annual supplies by 2030 compared to historical (1977-2006)  Unregulated surface water supply at Bonneville will  The irrigation demand under 2030s climate was roughly 2.5% above modeled historic levels under average flow conditions  Most severe impacts for specific watersheds 14.3 (±1.2)% between June and October 17.5 (±1.9)% between November and May

20. Changes in Streamflow Seasonality due to Climate Change 2030s Range Snake River Columbia River

21. Regulated Supply vs Demand for Columbia River Basin (at Bonneville) Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands Demand: 13.3 million ac-ft Demand: 13.6 million ac-ft 2030s

22. Regulated Supply and In-Stream Flow Requirements at Key Locations Future (2030s) Historical (1977-2006) Note: Supply is reported prior to accounting for demands

23. http://wa.water.usgs.gov Yakima River Basin

24. Yakima Regulated Supply and Demand Historical 2030s

25. Summary  Annual supply is projected to increase roughly the same amount as annual demand (with lower certainty).  However the seasonality of supply will move away from the season of highest demand (with higher certainty).  Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions, especially in the context of competing in stream and out of stream users of water supply.

26. REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEM MODELING

27. What IS an Earth System Model?  Represents multiple components of the earth system Coupler Atmosphere Human Actions Land Water Bodies

28. A NEW EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

29. http://www.cereo.wsu.edu/bioearth/ BioEarth Overarching Goal: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal- scale C:N:H 2 O interactions in context of global change to better inform decision makers involved in natural and agricultural resource management.

30. BioEarth Unique Elements  Model elements that directly relate agriculture and natural resource management and decision making Economics: crop and forest resource human decision making Crop modeling: irrigation, fertilization, rotations, tillage, residue Water management: reservoirs, curtailment Environmental impacts: air quality, water quality, water availability

31. BioEarth Team  Washington State University  Biological Sciences  Biological Systems Engineering  CSANR  Civil and Environmental Engineering  Computer Sciences  Earth and Environmental Sciences  Economics  Extension  Laboratory for Atmospheric Research  Clark University, Communications  National Center for Atmospheric Research  Oregon State University, Economics  Pacific Northwest National Lab, Atmospheric Sciences  University of California Santa Barbara, Environmental Sciences

32. Current and Future Directions that can involve CSANR  Improved understanding of research and modeling needs of agricultural producers and natural resource managers  Impacts of improved irrigation efficiency on return flows and downstream crop yields  Inclusion of Carbon and Nitrogen cycling in coupled hydrology-crop model (VIC-CropSyst)  Inclusion of nutritional quality in VIC-CropSyst  Climate change perception and education  Other ideas?

33. Thank you!