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ISEO SUMMERSCHOOL 23° June 2008 Mario Baldassarri The World Economy Toward Global Disequilibrium Palgrave-MacMillan, London 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "ISEO SUMMERSCHOOL 23° June 2008 Mario Baldassarri The World Economy Toward Global Disequilibrium Palgrave-MacMillan, London 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 ISEO SUMMERSCHOOL 23° June 2008 Mario Baldassarri The World Economy Toward Global Disequilibrium Palgrave-MacMillan, London 2007

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5 Map 1: World with continents weighted by Population 2003

6 Map 2: World with continents weighted by Agricultural Resources 2003

7 Map 3: World with continents weighted by Mineral Resources 2001

8 Map 4: World with continents weighted by Real GDP 2003

9 Map 5: Word with continents weighted by Real GDP, projections for 2015

10 Map 6: Word with continents weighted by Real GDP, projections for 2030

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15 Figure 3a: G8 and G20 from 2003 to 2040 (2003$)

16 Figure 4a: the “new” G8 considering Europe-25 (2003$)

17 Figure 4b: Discount rates (FED-ECB), European inflation rate (HICP), Exchange rate Euro/Dollar

18 Figure 4c: Euro per Dollar (november 2003)

19 1,401,301,201,101,00Variations with respect to €/$ to 1,40 €/$ ratio 20052005 GDP growth rate-0,050,400,861,321,771,82 Deficit/GDP ratio3,983,793,593,393,17-0,81 20062006 GDP growth rate1,221,541,892,282,721,50 Deficit/GDP ratio3,933,533,102,652,17-1,76 20072007 GDP growth rate1,62,872,122,402,691,07 Deficit/GDP ratio3,713,202,662,101,50-2,21 20082008 GDP growth rate1,571,802,042,302,591,02 Deficit/GDP ratio3,512,912,281,620,92-2,59 TABLE 1 - The effect of the super euro on growth and the deficit With variations of the Euro/Dollar ratio determined by the reduction in interest rates

20 BASE SIMULATION

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27 US DOLLAR IPER DEVALUATION

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40 EUROPEAN DOMESTIC DEMAND PUSH PLUS EURO DEVALUATION

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53 EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT PLUS CHINESE DOMESTIC PUSH

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