1. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution The Role Of BMC3I Simulation In Advancing The NATO Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) Programme Nicholas J Hatton Jim Watkins NC3A USASMDC NC3A USASMDC

2. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 2 Presentation Outline  NATO ALTBMD Programme  Integrated assessment of system architectures and BMC3I options  Battle Management options analysis  Modes of control  Impact of varying the location of BMC3I functions  EADSIM Capabilities Overview  Systems  BMC3I  Rulesets

3. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 3 Background  Objective: By 2010, to field an Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) capability that will protect forces deployed on NATO missions from theatre ballistic missiles  Progress: On 11 March 2005, the North Atlantic Council approved the Charter for the ALTBMD Programme Management Organisation (PMO)

4. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 4 Context  1991 Gulf War  February 25 th. Hit US barracks at Dharan, killing 28 and injuring over 100. Coalition forces knew the ballistic missiles that Iraq developed from Soviet Scud Bs as "Scuds," regardless of Iraq's Arabic names for their longer-range variants. Iraq fired mainly the Al Hussein model at the Kuwait theater of operations and Israel. 88 TBMs launched

5. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 5 System Architecture  Flexible, reliable BMC3I arrangements are fundamental NATO UNCLASSIFIED3 THREAT SENSORS WEAPON SYSTEMS NATO COMMAND & CONTROL

6. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 6 Upper Layer Weapon System BMC3I Boost Phase Interceptor System BMC3I Upper Layer Weapon System BMC3I Lower Layer Weapon System BMC3I Sensor Interceptor Sensor Interceptor Sensor Interceptor Sensor Interceptor ARS C2 Level 1 C2 Level 2 C2 Level 3 The ALTBMD architecture shall enable mixed MOOs for ALTBMD assets Upper Layer Weapon System BMC3I Lower Layer Weapon System BMC3I Sensor Interceptor Sensor Interceptor SAM C3* ARS CAOC * Probable implementation as a SAM C2 capability within the ARS Autonomous: Each Fire Unit acts independently and conducts its own localised TEWA Decentralised (Level 1, 2 or 3 C2): By Negation – C2 Centre monitors engagement status of subordinate FUs and issues veto commands for deconfliction & inventory balancing (proactive) Engage Status Engage Veto Engage Approval Engage Request Engage Denial By Authorisation – C2 Centre approves or denies engagement requests from subordinate FUs (reactive) Centralised: C2 Centre (Level 1, 2 or 3) monitors status of subordinate Fire Units (FUs) and conducts TEWA Engage Order FU Status Method of Operation (MOO)

7. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 7 BMC3I Options  Option 1:Purely autonomous  Option 2:Decentralized (by negation) at level 1; isolated upper-tier systems operate autonomously  Option 3:Centralized at level 1, autonomous elsewhere  Option 4:Decentralized (by negation) at level 1 with coordination  Option 5:Centralized at level 1 with coordination  Option 6:Decentralized (by negation) at level 2  Option 7:Centralized at level 3.

8. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 8 Mode of Control Analysis Mode of ControlAdvantagesDisadvantages Commander’s Real Time Level of Control Autonomous-Maximum number of engagements -Maximum kills -Minimum C2 overhead -Minimum engagement delays -Rapid inventory depletion -High wastage -Risk of fratricide None Decentralized (negation with delay) -Inventory management -Reduced wastage -Fewer launches per kill -Engagement continues unless negated -Loss of engagement opportunities -Possible wastage -Risk of fratricide Moderate Decentralized (authorization) -Inventory management -Reduced wastage -Fewer launches per kill -Lower fratricide risk -Loss of engagement opportunities -Possible leakage if no authorization High Centralized-Inventory management -Reduced wastage -Fewer launches per kill -Lower fratricide risk -Loss of engagement opportunities -Possible leakage High  BMC3I system will be required to support all of the modes of control

9. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 9 Summary (Part 1)  NATO Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) Programme is underway  Integrated assessment of system architectures and BMC3I options supported by EADSIM  Sensors  Weapon Systems  BMC3I  M&S provided the analytical foundation from which the Architecture-level and System-level technical requirements were derived

10. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 10 Extended Air Defense Simulation Overview  Force-On-Force simulation of air, missile, and space  Analysis, Training, Test, And Operational Planning in a single, integrated package  Community accepted model  Supports worldwide user base of over 390 users MDA Core Model NATO (NC3A) Use For Over 10 Years Industry Use (US, Europe) For ALTBMD Feasibility Studies DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

11. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 11  Baseline funding provided by MDA and SMDFWC  User-funded enhancements are the key to EADSIM growth and success  Version 12.00 is the latest released version (Jan 2005)  Multiple ongoing enhancements, User funded site support, Exercise support, User’s hotline  Configuration managed with joint CCB. PROGRAM OVERVIEW EADSIM is strongly supported by the user community DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

12. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 12 EADSIM Models...... DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

13. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 13 NATO UNCLASSIFIED3 EADSIM – Applicability to ALTBMD THREAT SENSORS WEAPON SYSTEMS NATO COMMAND & CONTROL Models all the elements of the problem Provides the flexibility to explore solutions Methods of operation Flexibility of representation Each element constructed using composable models Behavior and interaction flexibility DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

14. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 14 Behavior Modeling Set Parameters Program Trigger Event/response Combinations Battle Management/c3 (BM/C3) Phases Message Processing Track Processing Decision And Engagement Processes Responses To Messages Handling Of Different Types Of Track Data User Tailors Behavior DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

15. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 15 Weapon Models EADSIM Models Multiple Classes of Weapons Conventional Nuclear Chemical / Biological Directed Energy Electromagnetic Pulse / High Power Radio Frequency User Configurable Weapons Allow Almost Any Weapon to be Represented User Selectable Levels of Fidelity Explicit Flyout Flyout Tables Constant Velocity Ballistic Missile Flight Model Compared To Standard Threat Developer Suites Integration Effort Guidance Updates for Missile Defense Underway in FY05 Explicit Flyout Model Has Been Updated. Used in RS05, JPOW VIII, IMD Exercises Earth Rotation In Interceptor Flight Added DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

16. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 16 RADAR DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

17. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 17 SUMMARY  EADSIM is extensively used in NATO Missile Defense Studies  EADSIM has the capabilities to support studies in many other areas (C4ISR, Space, Attack Operations, and Directed Energy).  EADSIM flexibility has been significantly enhanced in Version 12.00.  Planned enhancements emphasize Missile Defense study support. DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

18. UNCLASSIFIED – Unlimited Distribution 18 Contacts NC3A Brussels Visiting address: Bâtiment Z Avenue du Bourget 140 B-1110 Brussels Telephone +32 (0)2 7074111 Fax +32 (0)2 7078770 Postal address: NATO C3 Agency Boulevard Leopold III B-1110 Brussels Belgium NC3A The Hague Visiting address: Oude Waalsdorperweg 61 2597 AK The Hague Telephone +31 (0)70 3743000 Fax +31 (0)70 3743239 Postal address: NATO C3 Agency P.O. Box 174 2501 CD The Hague The Netherlands SMDC Future Warfare Center Visiting address: Building 5220 Redstone Arsenal, Alabama Telephone +1 (256) 9551681 Fax +1 (256) 9552455 Postal address: USASMDC P.O. Box 1500, SDMC-FW-SM Huntsville, Alabama 35870-3801 United States