1. MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21 Alan S. Manne, Stanford University Richard G. Richels, EPRI Stanford University December 2003

2. RR1202CG.2 Features of MERGE Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model Perfect foresight 9 regions Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150 Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE

3. RR1202CG.3 Features Added Specifically for EMF 21 Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf) Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020 Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020 Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA Extrapolated technical progress Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results

4. RR1202CG.4 Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress Multipliers for all Gases but CO2 $/tce 201020502100

5. RR1202CG.5 World Carbon Sinks: Cumulative Difference @ $100/ton

6. RR1202CG.6 Regional Population Projections

7. RR1202CG.7 Per Capita GDP

8. RR1202CG.8 GDP Projections

9. RR1202CG.9 Carbon Emissions – Reference Case

10. RR1202CG.10 Global Radiative Forcing Percentages 2000-2100 - reference case n2o 15% ch4 8% slf 2% llf ~0% co2 75%

11. RR1202CG.11 Control Cases In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100. Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C. Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades. Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.

12. RR1202CG.12 Temperature Increase from 2000

13. RR1202CG.13 Present value of control costs

14. RR1202CG.14 Efficiency price of carbon - 4.5 watts / square meter

15. RR1202CG.15 Efficiency price of carbon – 0.2 degrees C per decade

16. RR1202CG.16 Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s ( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )