1. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Farm Type Models For CAPRI - Wolfgang Britz, IAP, Bonn - CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

2. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Content Background Why farm type models ? Data sources Integration in the data base Integration in the modeling system Exploitation Unresolved issues

3. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Background Positive external evaluation of CAPRI, context: study on quantitative tools initiated by DG-ENV Project for DG-ENV (01/2001-3/2003) co-ordinated by John Helming, LEI, The Hague partner: LEI + Bonn + Montpellier Aims: improved environmental indicators (N-mass flow model, water balances, plant protection) farm types scenario analysis

4. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Why farm type models Farm specialization matters regarding environmental impacts (stocking densities etc.) regarding policy impacts (farm specific ceilings) regarding model behavior linkages between activities, especially fodder crops and animals

5. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Data Sources Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) single farm records covering revenues and costs, production program and certain yields, premiums but no input allocation not always clear link to administrative NUTS regions (instead own FADN regions) differences in activity/product breakdown compared to CAPRI restricted access due to confidentiality issues

6. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Integration in the data base In a first step, farms were assigned to NUTS II regions finding in parallel optimal correction factors for yields and activities The five most frequent types by specialization were selected, and the remaining farms aggregated 5 to 6 farm types break down consistently one NUTS II region ex post each farm type features an own production program, own I/O coefficients and thus own costs/revenues

7. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Integration FADN in the data base CoCo REGIO CAPREG 5 Types per region FADN records CAPRI Consistency (Levels, Output) Assignment to NUTS

8. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Integration in the modeling system Each farm type is treated like a NUTS III region No change in the structure of the supply models Consequently, now about 1050 regional aggregate models on the supply side aggregation to NUTS II/Member State/EU for premium and market modules

9. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Exploitation CAPRI Regionalised Data Base CAPRI Modelling System Farm types Aggregation NUTS II Aggregation MS,EU CAPRI Result Data Base Mapping tool HTML tables DAOUT EXCEL etc.

10. CAPRI 3 rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Unresolved Issues Continuous access to FADN data Farm specific constraints ? Farm specific policy ceilings e.g. stocking density restrictions tremendous increase in memory allocation and solution time of complete modelling system