1. Methodologies for tsunami exposure and vulnerability assessment just an introduction….

2. Basic terminology Hazard = a description of the potentially impactous natural phenomenon/process. Vulnerability = the degree of natural exposure to a hazard Risk = a description of the expected impact of a hazardous phenomenon/process Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Value

3. Additional terms Resilience = the ability to withstand and recover from a disaster, practically we may say that [resilience] = 1/ [risk] Intensity = the degree of impact on a certain scale (e.g 12-point scale, Papadopoulos & Imamura, 2001 )

4. Types of vulnerability Society in general Buildings (e.g. structural vulnerability), infrastructures etc. Population/target groups/individuals Indoor/outdoor Time-independent/time-dependent How hazard modelling is linked with vulnerability?

5. Linking hazard modeling and vulnerability (e.g. Dale & Flay, 2006) Generalizing the complex behaviour of fluid flow around (and through) a structure, Defining the resultant loads on the structure. Forces on a structure due to flow include hydrostatic, both horizontal and vertical, wave loads, hydrodynamic loads and debris loads. Design guides, e.g. FEMA 55. An engineering model of a structure can be used to assess damage outcomes.

6. The PTVA model Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (2003) model Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI) score for each building Structural Vulnerability SV = (Bv) x (Ex) x (Prot) Currently PTVA-3 by Dall’ Osso et al. (2009) Analytic Hierarchy Process (for weighting the various attributes) Application/validation in Aeolian Islands (ts. 2002) by Dall’ Osso et al. (2010)

7. SV = (Bv) x (Ex) x (Prot) The important role of complex coastal topography Experimental study on ts. Inundation over complex topography (Sim et al., 2013) What is the effectiveness of sand dunes in dissipating ts. wave energy? Inundation Distance ≠ Dune Spacing ID ~ DuneS, when HDunes≈Hts

8. Uncertainties/errors in tsunami damage assessment in buildings Gardi et al. (2011), SCHEMA FP6 Project Errors in post-disaster surveys Uncertainties associated with difficulties in characterizing ts. sources and numerical modeling Resolution of DTM’s. Numerical codes, damage functions, cartographic processing.

9. Empirical fragility analysis of building damage (Charvet, 2014) Empirical fragility analysis of building damage 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami Ishinomaki City Advanced statistics in geographical environments that would have significantly affected tsunami flow characteristics: -a plain -a narrow coast backed up by high topography (terrain) -a river. The fragility analysis assesses the relative structural vulnerability between these areas.

10. Human Damage Prediction Sugimoto et al. (2003) Numerical calculation and GIS, Shikoku isl., Japan Number of victims in areas of max. inundation -sum of death toll of every area in space & time -time needed to find refuge after an EQ -ts. penetration inland -flow velocity -evacuation speed