1. San Francisco Bay Area Activity-Based Models Specification & Training Study Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission Oakland, California Workshop Presentation at the 86 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Sunday, January 21, 2007

2. Presentation Overview  The Six Stages of Model System Development  MTC and Travel Modeling: A Brief History  MTC Approach to Model Development  Chronology of Events  Travel Model Specification Plan  Travel Model Estimation Training  Current & Future Work

3. Six Stages of Model System Development (Trip-Based or Activity-Based)  Model Specification  Disaggregate Estimation  Disaggregate Validation  Market Segmentation  Software Preparation  Aggregate Validation

4. A Brief History  1960s – Diversion Curves & Aggregate Models  1970s – Disaggregate Choice Models, Logsums  See Ruiter & Ben-Akiva, Shunk & Kollo TRR #673 (1978)  1980s-1990s – In-House Redevelopment of Trip-Based Model Systems  See Kollo & Purvis, TRR #1220 (1989)  2000s – Collaborative Development of Next Generation (Activity-Based) Demand Models

5. MTC Approach to Model Development  In-House Estimation, Validation, Software Development  MTC Staff Strengths: Data Analysis, GIS, Documenting  MTC Staff Weaknesses: Programming, Ongoing Model Estimation Experience  Collaborative Approach with Consultants needed due to retirement of MTC programming staff; Complexity of Activity-Based Models  Numerous Consultant Roles: Educating, Tutoring, Training, Mentoring, Computer Programming, Second-Guessing, Collaborating, Problem-Solving, Debugging, Reasonableness Checking, Hand-Holding, Commiserating, etc.

6. Chronology  December 2004: TMIP-sponsored Peer Review Panel for MTC  April 2005: MTC Request for Proposal for “Travel Model Specification & Training Study”  June/July 2005: Consultant Selection/Contracting  September 2005: Policy Needs Workshops  January 2006: Introduction to Estimation Software  February/March 2006: MTC Staff Training  December 2006: Completion of Specification Plan  2007-2009: Complete the Work

7. Components of MTC Travel Model Specification & Training Study  Develop a Travel Model Specification Plan  Provide Travel Model Estimation Training  Provide Data Processing Support for Models (e.g., apply trip chaining procedures)  Provide “On-Call” Model Estimation Oversight

8. Travel Model Specification Plan (I)  Networks, Data, Hardware, Software, Models  @75 model components (discrete choice)  Tour-Based, with 7-8 tour purposes  Synthetic Population, based on ARC work  Inter-Household Interactions (IHI)  Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern (CDAP) Model  Tour Coordination Models  Logsum linkages throughout  Need to Estimate Models from the “Bottom Up”

9. Travel Model Specification Plan (II)  Long-Term Decisions / Population Synthesis  Household Accessibility to Transit Model  Work-at-Home Choice Model  Work Location Choice Model  School Location Choice Models  Auto Ownership Model  Parking Cost Model  Travel Demand Models  Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern (CDAP) Model  Tour Generation Models  Work-Based Sub-Tour Generation & Destination Choice Models  Mandatory & Non-Mandatory Tour Coordination Models  Tour Destination Choice Models  Intermediate Stop purpose and Destination Choice Models  Tour, and Trip Mode Choice Models

10. GIS & Data  Bay Area Travel Survey 2000 (BATS2000)  15,000+ Households  Comprehensive Analysis of Linked Trips  New Database of Tours, Chained Trips, Stops  GIS: ESRI’s Network Analyst Software  Emphasis on Point-to-Point Network LOS  Detailed Proximity to Transit Stops: www.511.org  MTC TOD Research with BATS2000/GIS:  Characteristics of Rail & Ferry Station Area Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area: Evidence from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey” (MTC StARS – 9/2006)

11. Travel Model Estimation Training  9.5 full days of Classroom Lectures/Labs  Comprehensive Reading List  Team teaching (Koppelman, Garrow, Vovsha, Freedman, Train)  Students = MTC Staff (5)  Estimation using ELM software  Advanced Seminar: Mixed Logit

12. Training Laboratories  Multinomial Logit (Auto Ownership)  Multinomial Logit (Trip Mode Choice)  Nested Logit (Trip Mode Choice)  Destination Choice  Tour Mode Choice  Daily Activity Pattern for Workers  Coordinated Daily Activity Pattern  Work Tour Time-of-Day Choice

13. Current & Future Work  Complete Synthetic Population Analysis  Validation Year = 2000  Forecast / Backcast Years = 1990, 2005, 2030, 2050  Continue Model Estimation work in 2007  2008 Hiatus (Production Work on Regional Transportation Plan); Other Production Work  Complete Model Estimation, Software Development, Validation in 2009

14. Recommendations?  Starting with a Comprehensive, Recent Household Travel Survey is Fundamental  Importance of Complementary Databases  Networks, Transit Stops, Detailed Land Use  Staff Education & Training  Making the Inexplicable, Explainable  Collaborative Efforts with Academia & Consultants are Essential  It Takes Time to Do It Right!  Have the standby trip-based models until….

15. References  Chuck Purvis, MTC, cpurvis@mtc.ca.govcpurvis@mtc.ca.gov  510-817-5755  MTC Web Site - - “DataMart”  http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/ datamart/historic/  http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/ datamart/abm/  MTC Travel Model Specification Plan  MTC Travel Model Estimation Training Summary

16. References  Chuck Purvis, MTC, cpurvis@mtc.ca.govcpurvis@mtc.ca.gov  510-817-5755  MTC Web Site - - “DataMart”  http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/ datamart/historic/  http://www.mtc.ca.gov/maps_and_data/ datamart/abm/  MTC Travel Model Specification Plan  MTC Travel Model Estimation Training Summary