1. Success Factors in Large-Scale Online Education Morten Flate Paulsen Professor in Online Education A 25 minute presentation which is available at: http://home.nettskolen.com/~morten/ Plenary speech at the EDEN Conference, Helsinki, Finland. 23.06.2005.

2. 2 These issues will be addressed in the European Megatrend project The project’s aim is to enhance public knowledge on sustainable and cost-effective large-scale e- learning by analyzing the trends and contributions to large-scale success and to identify laws and recommendations for success and failure in e- learning. Partners: – NKI, Norway – EDEN, UK – Open University of Catalonia, Spain – Distance education International, Ireland – Estonian e-University, Estonia – Norwegian Opening Universities, Norway – Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary Reference material project under Leonardo da Vinci second phase 2000-2006: Community Vocational Training Action Program

3. 3 Megatrend project objectives Survey of MegaProviders in Europe Analyze MegaProviders Identify examples of cost-effective large scale e-learning Identify MegaTrends in e-learning and disseminate widely Evaluate and identify examples of sustainable online development Study cost-effectiveness in selected public and private institutions providing large scale e-learning internationally Study e-learning initiatives that did not reach targeted goals Identify trends and characteristics of e-learning initiatives that were closed and not reach targeted goals Identify and formulate laws on e-learning success and failure To valorize and disseminate results nationally and internationally

4. Much of the content is available at www.studymentor.comwww.studymentor.com The presentation is based on recommendations from my book Online Education and Learning Management Systems: Global E-learning in a Scandinavian Perspective

5. 5 Examples from the NKI Internet College www.nettskolen.com www.nettskolen.com Operated by NKI Distance Education (www.nki.no)www.nki.no Sustainable online education since 1987 50 000 enrollments in online courses since 1987 Revenue from online courses in 2004: 6M Euros Broad spectrum of subjects from secondary to master level More than 400 distance education courses online 5500 Norwegian online students in about 35 countries Nearly 70% women You may start whenever you like Individual progress plans Always room for more students Exams at local schools and embassies Online students get better grades June 2005

6. 6 Content of this presentation The Large-scale Mega Trend Success Factors Derived from EU- project Recommendations –Strategies –Cost Effectiveness and Sustainability –ICT Solutions and Integration –Pedagogy and Teaching

7. 7 The large-scale mega trend The current mega trend shows clearly that online education is shifting from small-scale experiments to large-scale operations. 1999: 3 of 22 Nordic institutions offered more than 50 online courses. 2002: 12 of 20 Nordic institutions offered at least 50 online courses.

8. 8 Number of NKI enrollments in online courses per year From 1000 to 10000 enrollments in 7 years

9. 9 In higher education… Online education becomes mainstream education in Scandinavia. Before year 2000, typical universities piloted a few online courses with some pioneering students. Today, they are implementing online education services to all their students. …a Sloan Consortium study of online learning in American higher education shows that 97.6% of all public higher education institutions in the USA offer online learning degree programmes and courses, either as fully online programmes or as hybrid (blended) formats. Source: Online Education, Page 204

10. 10 In schools A large number of Scandinavian secondary schools are now using LMS systems Even primary schools offer online services to many teachers, students, and parents.

11. 11 In the corporate sector While the [Western European corporate e- learning] market saw single digit growth from 2002 to 2003 at just under 7%, IDC expects growth rates to increase to double-digits for the rest of the forecast period [2003-2008]. (Source: IDC 2004)

12. 12 The mega trend indicates that successful, large-scale online education depends on some industrialization Rationalization Division of labor Mass production Automation Cost-effectiveness Market enlargement Quality control

13. 13 Review of recommendations from European projects CISAER (1998 – 2000) International survey and analysis of online courses. Data from 130 institutions in 26 countries Web-edu (2001-2002) The project studied European experiences with LMS systems. 113 in-depth interviews with key people in 17 countries

14. 14 Study of the e-learning suppliers’ “market” in Europe Recommendations to policy makers Recommendations to suppliers Report by –Danish Technological Institute –Independent consultant Jane Massy –Alphametrics Ltd –Heriot-Watt University http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/education_culture/publ/educ-form_en.html#Study

15. 15 Recurring themes in the recommendations suggest that success factors in large-scale online education are related to: Institutional strategies for online education Cost-effectiveness and sustainability Efficient and well-integrated ICT system Focus on online pedagogy and teaching

16. 16 Institutional online education strategies In 1999, a Canadian competitive analysis of online post-secondary education (Massey and Curry, 1999) reported that the biggest surprise was the lack of institutional strategy for online learning initiatives. How many of you have institutional online education strategies now?

17. 17 Strategy clashes …the universities will need seamless and powerful integration of their online learning environments and their student management systems. [We] will see two worlds collide in this process: The world of the teaching staff and the world of the university administrations.

18. 18 Flexibility is an important issue in many online education strategies

19. 19 Examples with varying degrees of enrollment flexibility Traditional universities enroll students once per year. Some institutions enroll distance education students once per month. NKI Distance Education enrolls students every day. Copyright Atle Løkken

20. NKI’s LMS supports individual progression plans

21. 21 Cost-effectiveness Cost-effectiveness becomes more important as institutions become large-scale providers. Development and operation costs of online courses are high. Commercial LMSs are costly investments. Staff time for development and maintenance of self- developed systems proves to be a costly investment too. It is important to develop sustainable online courses.

22. 22 Sustainability indicates success Sustainable online education is characterized by its ability to persist when extraordinary internal or external funding stops. Unfortunately, it seems to be a rare phenomenon. In most cases online education is sustainable when it generates an economic surplus or reduces costs.

23. 23 Online education obituaries My book presents 20 examples of non-sustainable: 1.governmental initiatives 2.consortia 3.investor-driven initiatives 4.boardroom initiatives 5.high profile international ventures Online Education Obituaries (www.studymentor.com/studymentor/Obituaries.pdf)www.studymentor.com/studymentor/Obituaries.pdf In Online Education and Learning Management Systems – Global E-learning in a Scandinavian Perspective, page 145.)

24. 24 More misery references What Happened at California Virtual University http://www.newstrolls.com/news/dev/downes/column041499.htm http://www.newstrolls.com/news/dev/downes/column041499.htm OU closes US operation http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/news/story/0,9830,645198,00.html http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/news/story/0,9830,645198,00.html NHS university axed in quango cut http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4055541.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4055541.stm Problems at e-learning university http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/3494048.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/3494048.stm Why did e-learning go bust in the USA? Discussion in DEOS-L; June 2005 http://lists.psu.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A1=ind0506&L=deos-l&D=0&T=0 http://lists.psu.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A1=ind0506&L=deos-l&D=0&T=0

25. 25 ICT solutions and integration are important success factors LMS systems Open Source Systems E-standards

27. 27 Pedagogy and Teaching We need to confine the online teacher’s workload

28. 28 As a part of its strategy, NKI has developed a Philosophy on Cooperative Online Learning NKI Distance Education facilitates individual freedom within a learning community in which online students serve as mutual resources without being dependent on each other. We build on adult education principles and seek to foster benefits from both individual freedom and cooperation in online learning communities. Cooperative learning is based on voluntary participation in a learning community

29. 29

30. Information from NKI teacher’s start page:

31. 31 Detail from NKI teacher’s start page: NKI’s goal is that it should take no longer than 2 days from a student submits an assignment to the teacher registers the grade. Last 6 months: The teachers’ overall average is 3 days, your average is 4 days. Last 3 months: The teachers’ overall average is 2 days, your average is 5 days.

32. 32 Supervision System Results The system was introduced in May 2004. It resulted in much discussion in the teachers’ online forum. A few teachers voiced strong criticism, doubts and reservations. The average response time during the last six months dropped month by month during the Fall of 2004. In October it showed 3,97 days, in November 3,06 days and in December 2,76 days.

33. www.studymentor.com Thank You More information in my book: Online Education and Learning Management Systems: Global E- learning in a Scandinavian Perspective. The presentation is available via: http://home.nettskolen.com/~morten/