1. Rising to Depletion ? Towards a dialogue on the state of national marine fisheries A PROFISH Preliminary Report presented to the World Bank on 26 May 2009

2. Outline 1.Introduction 2.The approach 3.The data 4.Selected results 5.Discussion 6.Conclusions

3. 1. Introduction The study backdrop  90% of stocks are under national jurisdiction and the large majority is under excessive pressure  Countries are responsible and committed to restore stocks by 2015 (WSSD POI) but progress is very slow  At global level, information on stocks is often scarce, fragmented, too slowly updated and often outdated  There is therefore no regularly updated and easily accessible indicator of fishery development level at national, regional or global level

4. 1. Introduction The study outcome  An approach providing a simple, generally available and effective entry point into an interactive fishery reform process  The approach is scalable, at sub-sectoral, sectoral, national, regional or global levels  It may encourage countries to:  Build on their existing efforts, making better use of available statistics  Improve the quality of their statistics formalizing their use as indicators and  Publicly account for the health of their fishery resources

5. 2. Approach The development cycle Time I II III IV V Undev. Developing Mature Senescent Recovering Aggregate landings 0 Zero growth Max growthMax landing Relative growth rate

6. 2. Approach T he phase graph Landings Growth rate 0 Zero growth Max growth Max landing II III I IV V

7. Time 0 Landings ( ) II III IV V I Landings 0 I II III IV V 2. Approach The development cycle Landings Growth rate

8. Growth Rate or landings Time 0 I II III II III IV? IV III 2. Approach The development cycle

9. Landings Growth rate Fluctuation loops 0 2. Approach The phase graph I II III IV V?

10. Country B Country A Home Area A Home Area B Limit of the FAO Area Long-range fleets grounds Offshore resources limit Country B Country A Home Area AHome Area B Limit of the FAO Area Offshore resources limit 2. Approach FAO Areas and Home Areas

11. 3. Data  FAO FISHSTAT + landings database  Marine capture fisheries 1950-2006 in Home Areas  5 taxonomic categories  Total Fishes  Bottom Fishes  Small Pelagic Fishes  Other Fishes  Crustaceans  3 indicators (raw and smoothed)  Reported landings  Annual relative rates of increase  Annual landing ratio (L t /L max )

12. 4. Selected results a.Typical patterns b.World level diagnostic c.Regional level diagnostic d.National level diagnostic e.Other observations

13. 4a Typical patterns World-Total Belgium-Total Denmark-Total

14. 4a. Typical patterns Albania - Total Albania-Total Fishes 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 195019601970198019902000 Landings (Tonnes) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 ROI (%) Albania-Total -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 02.0004.0006.0008.000 Landings (tonnes) ROI (%)

15. 4b World level Total Fishes Bottom Fishes Pelagic Fishes

16. Other Fishes Crustaceans Cephalopods 4b World Level

17. Area 21-Total Area 27-Total Area 31-Total 4c Regional Level

18. 4. Colour coding Time I II III IV % of LMAX LMax 0 50 75 90 100 DevelopingMatureSenescent

19. 4.C Regional – Total Fishes

20. 4c. Regional - Bottom Fishes

21. 4.C Regional – Bottom Fishes % in development phases

22. 4d. National level Types of patterns Mature: Cameroon Landings (10 3 t)

23. 4d. National level Types of patterns

25. Total Fishes Nb % Bottom Fishes Nb % Home Areas considered (*)224100224100 Un-conclusive assessment26122310 Not assessed2999442 Total assessed1697910748 Of which - Developing - Mature - Senescent 1 - Senescent 2 52 51 57 9 31 30 34 5 24 34 43 6 22 32 40 6 4d. National level Summary diagnostic *Note: countries bordering more than one FAO Area are counted more than once

26. 4d. National level – Total Fishes Rising to depletion?

27. 4d. National level – Bottom Fishes Rising to depletion?

28. 4d. National level Rising to depletion? 1952 2004 Home areas Total Fishes Home areas 1952 2004 Bottom Fishes

29. 4d National level % in development phases

30. 4d. National level Comparison of patterns

31. 4e. Other observations Oscillations Environment or business cycles?

32. 4e. Other observations Pattern similarities Data manipulations or large scale environmental signals?

33. 4e. Other observations Abnormal patterns Ind. war 1961-74

34. 5. Conclusion The title 0 Depletion Rising to As the aggregated level of saturation of the sector is reached, the risk of depletion increases

35. 5. Conclusion The bottom line  Countries are responsible for meeting their WSSD commitments  A robust country-level indicator on the state of the sector would help counties assess their progress and inform society  Existing statistics offer a possibility to be fully examined. They are underused and could be improved  Countries can improve on this first proposal through their own efforts. The Bank could help.  Country reporting to FAO would also be improved

36. 5.Conclusions What next regarding the study?  Continue peer review  Complete the analyses by resource types  Case studies (West Africa)

37. Senegal (left) Ghana (right) 5 Conclusions

38. 5. Conclusions What next regarding cases studies ?  Identify partner countries : normal, abnormal  Check sensitivity to drivers:  Integrate stock-specific and sector-wide analyses  Integrate development and management  Combine with sector-level economic analysis

39. 1950-2006Future Demise Towards what future? Many thanks for your attention

40. 1950-2006Future Many thanks for your attention 1950-2006Future Recovery Demise