1. 1 International trade by end-use and the BEC classification Colin Webb and Norihiko Yamano OECD STI/EAS

2. 2 Motivation Estimating international flows of intermediate goods Estimating I-O import matrices for countries that do not produce them Linking I-O tables with bilateral trade Domestic content of exports / ‘trade in value added’ Origin of imported consumption and investment goods Vertical Specialisation indicators  Analysis of GVCs

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4. 4 Straightforward methodology? Classification of Broad Economic Categories (BEC) HS  BEC and HS  ISIC conversions exist Therefore ISIC x BEC Also BEC  SNA end-use categories (Consumption, Intermediates, Capital) Therefore ISIC x end-use i.e. reported HS trade data  trade by ISIC and end-use

5. 5 Not so simple … BEC items: Mainly for industry / Mainly for household consumption … … Capital / Consumption split (e.g. ICT goods) BEC items: Motor Spirit, Motor cars, NEC (mixed end- uses) Adjustments to reported HS trade in goods data: –Re-exports –Account for ‘confidential data’ and missing data –Specific commodities e.g. Diamonds (HS 7102  ISICs 14, 36) –Knowledge of specific bilateral flows … –Customs data  BoP Services not covered  Calibrate imports of intermediates with SUT/IOT info …

6. 6 Users of BEC conversions “Trade in intermediate Goods and Services” Miroudot, Lanz and Ragoussis, OECD, 2009 Current OECD(STI) projects: based on OECD harmonised Input-Output tables –Estimates of import matrices –Inter-country I-O for environmental impacts of globalisation (CO 2 embodied in trade); technology diffusion (embodied R&D) – development of VS indicators / analyses of GVCs WIOD project, US ITC Research … UNSD, Eurostat : publication of trade data by BEC NSIs: BEC derivatives (AUS, NZ) ; local classifications (US, Canada)

7. 7 Future Review of BEC by UNSD  Revision of BEC? include services?  develop an eBOPGS linked to a new BEC? Use National sources (e.g. USA / CAN end-use data) ? Exploit alternative sources for further adjustments (e.g. HH expenditure on ICT?) Develop a “sustainable” international bilateral ISIC x end-use trade database at OECD ? i.e. updated as bilateral trade in data updated but ….. ISIC Rev.4 / SNA 2008 / HS 2012 …..