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Google Nexus One – Upfront Analysis Ankan Jain James Wade Peter You Satya Dash
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Slide 2 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Communication industry Slide 3 Communication Wired Television Internet Phone Wireless PagingCellular Wireless phoneSkype wireless Tablet PCs/eReader iPad Kindle Advanced PCS Home School Hotel
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Wireless telecommunication Slide 4 Advanced PCS - Wireless networking in homes, schools, offices, wireless hotspots Cellular services – 1G, 2G, 3G and 4G $152bn
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What is a smartphone? Slide 5 Two categories of mobile phones Feature Phones Basic phones with one or two advanced features like a camera or a basic web browser Very inexpensive Primary uses are calling and texting Smartphones Advanced phones with multiple features including full web browsers, e-mail, music players, maps and 3 rd party apps Prices from $100 to $500 Consumers use multiple functions beyond calling and texting
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Market Structure - General Slide 6 OS Developers Handset Makers Carriers Retailers Consumers 3 rd Party App Developers 3 rd Party Accessory Makers One firm may be all 3 or any combination Apple, RIM, Google, MS, Palm, Nokia Apple, RIM, HTC, Samsung, LG, Palm, Nokia, Motorola Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint Carrier Stores, Web sites, Best Buy, Wal-Mart
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Slide 7 The players
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Operating System Players Slide 8
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Smart phone handset makers Slide 9 Source: Razorfish, "FEED: Digital Brand Experience Study," November 10, 2009
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Carriers Slide 10
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Market Structure – iPhone, Blackberry, Droid Slide 11 iPhoneBlackberryDroidNexus One OS DeveloperAppleRIMGoogle Handset MakerAppleRIMMotorolaHTC Carrier(s)AT&TVerizon, AT&T, Sprint, T- Mobile VerizonT-Mobile RetailersApple, AT&T, Best Buy DozensVerizon, Motorola Google
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Slide 12 Industry Growth
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Major market segmentation Slide 13
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Feature Phone Sales Maturing Slide 14 91% of US population has a cellphone Growth rate dropped to single digits in 2007 and is not expected to rise again
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Smartphone Sales Exploding Slide 15
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Smartphone Industry Trends Slide 16 Switch from feature phones to smartphones Skyrocketing popularity of 3 rd party apps Shift from business to personal and mixed use Fierce competition at all levels of industry
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Trend – Switch from Feature Phones to Smartphones Slide 17 Since launch of iPhone in 2007, consumers are increasingly moving from feature phones to smartphones Shipments of smartphones are projected to exceed feature phones in 2012
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3 rd Party Apps Take Over Slide 18 Since launch of iTunes App Store, 3 rd party applications have skyrocketed in popularity Creates additional revenue stream for app developers and OS developers VoIP apps threaten to disrupt market structure by competing with carriers
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Top Five Mobile Content and Services Slide 19
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Slide 20 Industry Trends
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Trend – Shift from Business to Personal Use Slide 21 Smartphones were originally used mostly for business applications such as constant e-mail access Since launch of iPhone and iTunes App Store, biggest growth has been in phones for personal use Many consumers use smartphones for both business and personal use
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Trend – Ferocious Competition and Innovation Slide 22 Just since February 2010, handset and OS makers have announced the following new products: Palm Pre Plus and Pixi Plus Can create mini-hotspots to connect other WiFi devices to 3G Microsoft Windows Phone 7 Series Completely redeveloped OS from Microsoft HTC Evo 4G 4.3” screen WiMax 4G service 8 MP camera
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Implications of Industry Trends Slide 23 Rapid growth from new customers, not just churn of existing customers Network effects will drive app availability. Power of carriers decreases as consumers pay less attention to calling. Consumers call the shots, not corporate IT departments. Feature advantages are not sustainable, even in the short term (<1 year).
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Slide 24 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Slide 25 Key Competitors
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Slide 26 Direct Competitors iPhone BlackberryDroidPalm Pre Samsung LG Nokia
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Slide 27 Smart Phone Competitive Landscape Personal Use Business Use Nokia Samsung LG Palm Droid Blackberry iPhone
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Slide 28 Indirect Competitors iPadKindle
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Slide 29 Phone Features
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Slide 30 iPhone
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Slide 31 Blackberry
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Slide 32 Droid
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Slide 33 Palm Pre
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Slide 34 What makes iPhone different?
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Slide 35 140,000 apps and counting
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Slide 36 Distribution
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Slide 37 Retail Stores
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Slide 38 Retail Stores Web Site - Walmart.com
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Slide 39 Online Retailers - Amazon.com
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Slide 40 Only Mobile Phone Retailer - Wirefly.com
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Slide 41 Carrier Web Site
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Slide 42 Carrier Retail Store
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Slide 43 Manufacturer Web Site – Blackberry.com
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Slide 44 Manufacturer Retail Store – Apple
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Slide 45 Used Phones Market– eBay.com
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Slide 46 Price Comparison Sites– Shopping.com
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Slide 47 Pricing
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Slide 48 Who wants to pay for the phones?
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Slide 49 How about 0.01 cents?
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Slide 50 Unlocked Phones – Pay full price
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Pricing comparison Slide 51 CompanyModelCarrierPrice AppleiPhone 3G (s)AT&T$199 – 16GB $299 – 32GB AppleiPhone 3GAT&T$99 – 8GB RIMBlackberry PalmPalm Pre PlusVerizon$149.99 PalmPalm Pre PlusAT&T$149.99 PalmPalm Pixi PlusVerizon$79.99 PalmPalm Pixi PlusAT&T$49.99 MotorolaDroidVerizon$19.99
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Same model but different price Slide 52 ModelDistribution Store CarrierPrice Palm PrePalm.comVerizon$149.99 Palm.comAT&T$149.99 Amazon.comVerizon$29.99 Verizon.comVerizon$24.99 Sprint.comSprint$149.99
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Slide 53 iPhone – monopoly
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Slide 54 Carrier Promotion
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Slide 55 Retailer Promotion
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Slide 56 Advertisement
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Slide 57 PhoneCarrierTVPrintDigitalBillboard iPhoneAT&TYes BlackberryAT&T, T- Mobile, Verizon Yes Palm PreVerizon, Sprint Yes Motorola Droid VerizonYes
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Slide 58 Punch line
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Slide 59 Carrier Advertisement
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Slide 60 Carrier Advertisement
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Slide 61 Carrier Advertisement
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Slide 62 Carrier Advertisement
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Slide 63 Carrier Advertisement
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Slide 64 Retailer Promotion
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Slide 65 Print Advertisement – Wall Street Journal
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Slide 66 Editorial Reviews
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Slide 67 Online Videos – Youtube.com
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Slide 68 PR Smart Phone + Social Media (Twitter)
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Slide 69 Competitor Size
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Company Size & Advertising Spending Slide 70 Company2009 Annual Revenue 2009 Ad SpendAd Spend as % of revenue Apple$36bn$501mn1.37% RIM$11bn$337mn3.06% Motorola$22bn$412mn1.8% Palm$735mn$89mn12.1% Source – 2009 Annual Company Reports
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Slide 71 SEO
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Visits to company websites Slide 72
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Search Engine Optimization Slide 73
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Slide 74 Search Engine Results – Google.com Free SearchPaid Search
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Slide 75 Mobile Apps
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Spend on Apps Slide 76
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Spend on Apps Slide 77
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As A Group, iPhone Owners Are Wealthier And Younger Slide 78 Source: Forrester’s North American Technographics® Benchmark Survey
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iPhone = Mobile Internet Access Slide 79 Source: Forrester’s North American Technographics® Benchmark Survey
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Magic Quadrant for Mobile Application Platforms Slide 80 Source: Gartner Magic Quadrant for Mobile Consumer Application Platforms Dec 2009
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Mobile developers' mindshare Slide 81 Source: http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/ Apr 2 nd 2010http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/ Of 3,000 mobile app projects begun in the past 90 days, 67% were for iPhones, 22% for iPads
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Mobile Operating System Preference Slide 82 Source: http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/tag/iphone/ March 31, 2010http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/tag/iphone/ While demand for BlackBerries and Palm Pres is drying up, according to ChangeWave
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Mobile Operating System Preference Slide 83
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Slide 84 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Online-Only Ad ‘Campaign’ Slide 85 Marketed through a website, text-based search advertising, and a few sidebar ads on select websites Not available in any store, whether for purchase or trial No other marketing activities of any sort from Google or T-Mobile
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Nexus One Sales Flop Slide 86 Nexus One receives excellent reviews in most publications Analysts report very low sales in comparison to iPhone and to another Android-based phone – Motorola Droid
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Slide 87 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Mobile phones used today Slide 88 Kinds of phone used today 100% of people use a cell phone. 30% of people use a land line 19% of people use skype phone Kind of cell phone used 94% of people use a cell phone with advanced features: text, camera, internet and video 6% of people use a cell phone without advanced features.
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Very Important Smart Phone Features Email Web Browsing Texting Search Maps Camera Social Networking Work Applications Slide 89
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Google features being used by People Slide 90
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Willingness to pay for Dream Phone Slide 91
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Insights from Market Research 78% of people would like to test drive a phone in the store before buying it. 64% of people would like to pay subsidized price for their phone instead of full price. 51% of people have never heard of Nexus One smart phone Slide 92
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Wordle – iPhone Slide 93
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Wordle - Blackberry Slide 94
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Wordle - Google Slide 95
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Slide 96 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Web Browsing vs. Email Slide 97 Full HTML Browsing Poor HTML Browsing Email Support Less Trendy
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Price vs. Camera Slide 98 High Price Low Price High Resolution Camera Low Resolution Camera
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Number of Apps Available vs. Number of Downloaded Slide 99 High Number of Apps Low Number of Apps Large Number of Apps Downloaded Small Number of Apps Downloaded
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Slide 100 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Slide 101 Branding
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Lessons Learned iPhone is considered trendy Blackberry is perceived as tool for business Google is considered innovative The mobile phones have very high brand loyalty Very low brand awareness of Nexus one even among heavy Google users.
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Slide 103 Distribution
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Lessons Learned Most users would prefer to try the phone before purchasing Even users who buy it online would prefer to try it once Most would prefer to go to carrier stores over retail stores
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Slide 105 Pricing
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Lessons Learned Most people would prefer to get a subsidized phone Carriers offer discounts. So there is room to negotiate the price with carriers.
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Slide 107 Advertisement
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Lessons Learned The key competitors spend between 1 – 3% of marketing expense on advertisement. Palm spends around 10%. All competitors use print, TV, internet and billboard channels.
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Slide 109 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Strengths Google recognition and dominance in internet searches iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Internet Usage Share - Symbian (Nokia) + RIM + Windows Mobile Losing Share Processor speed (1 GHz) Available on multiple mobile carrier networks 7 Hr Battery life Camera resolution (5 MP) Expandable Memory Open-Source Smartphone Platform-of- Choice Most robust open-source alternative to iPhone platform with incentivized partners Free software for device manufacturers / carriers
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Strengths (continued) Second Most Vibrant Developer Community 10K+ apps in Android Market, second only to iPhone App Store Least restrictive application approval policies + flexible revenue sharing with carriers Easy alternative Potential Scalability from Beyond Smartphones iTunes App Store benefitted tremendously from iTouch users; Android is making inroads on media devices Storage: 4 Gb Standby time: 250 Hrs Multitasking
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Strengths (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Strengths (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Weaknesses New entrant into mobile phone industry Sub-Optimal User Experience Device manufacturers complain about Google’s lack of technical support when it comes to developing new Android smartphones Pricing iPhone available for $99 Market share Fewer applications Fewer accessories No physical keyboard
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Opportunities Long term, Google Android’s open / free operating system (combined with clever device manufacturers), standardization of more powerful mobile web browsers, emerging markets competition and carrier limitations may pose challenges to Apple’s market share upside. RIM may maintain enterprise lead owing to installed base, but long-term outlook is challenged. RIM BlackBerry may maintain enterprise lead for foreseeable future, but long- term outlook is challenged – consumer offerings likely to prove increasingly uncompetitive owing to software / application disadvantages. Open mobile web potentially more attractive to developers / consumers – Google / Opera leading transformation of mobile browsers into development platforms. Apple ‘walled garden’ approach somewhat constrained by Apple’s approval process + carrier capacity. Highest Handset Vendor Operating Margins at High End of Market – 20%+ for Smartphones vs. 8% for Low-End Vendors Highest for iPhone over Motorola, Sony Erickson, Nokie, LG, Samsung and RIMM
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Opportunities (continued) Growing Android app marketplace Exclusive carrier deals could limit Apple’s market share upside – AT&T Insufficient battery capacity could continue to prevent effective multitasking In Technology, Products with Most / Best Apps Usually Win – In Mobile, Apple is Clear Leader and Newcomer Android Has Quickly Surpassed the Old Guard
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Opportunities (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Opportunities (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats Network Effects Apple Near term, Apple is driving the platform change to mobile computing and leading in user experience. Its mobile ecosystem (iPhone + iTouch + iTunes + accessories + services) market share / impact should surprise on upside for at least the next 1-2 years. Revenue opportunities for developers Decreasing cost of manufacturing Other smartphone manufacturers will experience decreased bill-of- materials Lower BOM (Bill-Of-Material) Costs + Prices Stimulate Smartphone Demand – iPhone 3G Price to $99 from $199 = 89% Demand Increase
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Threats (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Morgan Stanley iPhone Interest Survey, 11/2008 (Top 3 barriers) #1 Purchase Barrier = Monthly Plan Cost ($95) – 55% of interested respondents cited service costs as reason for not purchasing #2 Purchase Barrier = Device Price ($199 / $299) – High iPhone price kept 53% of interested respondents from purchasing; price reduction to $100 increases unit demand 89% among respondents Apple has eliminated this barrier #3 Purchase Barrier = Carrier Exclusivity (AT&T) – 41% of interested respondents would not purchase iPhone due to carrier exclusivity – citing coverage / pricing issues with AT&T + switching costs from existing carriers Nexus One currently available on multiple networks
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Morgan Stanley iPhone Interest Survey, 11/2008 (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Morgan Stanley iPhone Interest Survey, 11/2008 (continued) Source: JP Morgan
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Cycle of Successful App Marketplace Source: JP Morgan
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Slide 130 Competitive analysis Past year’s analysis of marketing elements Marketing research Perceptual maps Industry analysis Lessons Learned SWOT analysis 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 Brand positioning Statement 8 8
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Brand Positioning Statement Slide 131 Target Audience: New smartphone users. This group is not yet wrapped up in a competing ecosystem and values the ability to choose a service provider. Frame of Reference: Smartphones. Nexus One is comparable to all smartphones, not just touch screen versions. Point of Difference: Innovative, integrated Google applications, choice of carriers. Nexus One takes the Google product suite and makes it even more useful everywhere you go. Nexus One offers the freedom to choose your carrier and your apps. End Benefit: Clarity, convenience, control. Nexus One seamlessly weaves together the Google products you already use and gives you control over your world. For new smartphone users, Google Phone is the smartphone that offers Google innovation with the freedom to choose, providing clarity, convenience and control.
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