1. A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

2. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development

3. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param Aerosol processes NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param (Grell) PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean Chemistry Model numerics Data assimilation Cloud processes

4. Data Assimilation Cycle 4 RAP Observations Hourly cycling model HRRR NOAA Next-Generation Model Development RAPID REFRESH HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH Radar data

5. NOAA Next-Generation Model Development FIM iHYCOM atmosphere ocean i HYCOM – Icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model -Matched grid design to FIM for coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system -Experimental testing at ESRL, Navy development FIM – Flow-following finite volume Icosahedral Model –“soccer-ball” grid design for uniform grid spacing –Isentropic/sigma hybrid vertical coordinate –New 14-day forecast twice daily –Real-time experimental at ESRL

6. 24h forecasts vs. raobs RMS vector error RR domain (N. America)

7. For the record – FIM vs. GFS using ECMWF as verification. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24f y/fimy/

8. Added 2 Nov – N. Hemisphere Over the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears somewhat better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 8-9 days (max 0.006 for FIM) Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force

9. Added 2 Nov – S. Hemisphere Over the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears much better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 9-10 days (no improvement at all in SH for FIM) Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force

10. Full 2012 track errors – Atlantic + E.Pacific basins 10

11. Ernesto Helene Isaac Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Rafael Sandy 96h Atlantic track error by storm 11

12. Ernesto Isaac Leslie Michael Nadine Sandy 2 US landfalling storms in Aug-Oct 2012 (Isaac, Sandy) 41 of 54 forecasts at 120h from mid-Atlantic storms (Leslie/Michael/Nadine) 120h Atlantic track error by storm 12

13. FIM9 Isaac forecasts from HFIP 13

14. HFIP ESRL- DA HFIP ESRL- DA Sandy – initial time 25 Oct 00z 14

15. HFIP ESRL- DA HFIP ESRL- DA Sandy – initial time 26 Oct 00z 15

16. FIM9 – HFIP – Stream 1.5 FIM9 – ESRL DA Sandy track forecasts 16

17. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param Aerosol processes NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param (Grell) PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean Chemistry Model numerics Data assimilation Cloud processes