1. Urban Rural

2. New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Introduction Developing the classification What we found out – key facts Alex Bayley and Dr Rosemary Goodyear alex.bayley@stats.govt.nz rosemary.goodyear@stats.govt.nz

3. New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Why was the report done? Frustration by rural analysts at limitations of available statistics. Current definition of rural areas simply a residual of urban. Rapid change in composition of rural areas is hidden in regularly published sub-national statistics. Over 20 years since Statistics NZ published a report on urban and rural areas.

4. New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Applications of the report? Provides a robust classification of urban and rural areas that can be applied to different needs. Resource for monitoring of regional and town plans. Inform policy on such matters as human capital and allocation of resources. Informs the wider audience, through the media and web, of which elements of the rural population are flourishing and which elements are in decline.

5. Aims Definition To develop a more meaningful definition of rural areas. To provide a more meaningful characterisation of secondary and minor urban areas, rather than simply population size. Statistics To provide a comprehensive analysis of available statistics using the new definition. Provide new insight using existing published data.

6. Historical Context In the 19 th Century the majority of New Zealanders lived in rural areas. By 2001 New Zealand one of the most urbanised countries in the world.

7. Growth of Cities As the population has become more urban, the number of people living in larger cities has increased. In 1901, 10.1 percent of the total population, (excluding Mäori) lived in a borough or town district with 25,000 or more people. In 2001, over 80 percent of the urban population (71.1 percent of the census usually resident population count) lived in a main urban area (population of 30,000 or more).

8. Growth of Main Cities Census of Population and Dwellings, selected years 1886–2001

9. Growth of Rural Areas Overall rural population has changed little. Between 1881 and 2001 the population of urban New Zealand increased by over 1,500 percent, compared with an increase in rural areas of 83 percent. In 1916, there were 501,258 people in rural areas (excluding Mäori). In 2001, there were 532,740 people in rural areas (including Mäori).

10. Percent of Agriculture and Fishery Workers Census of Population and Dwellings, selected years 1886–2001 Primary production still accounts for approximately half our exports. But proportion of people working as an agriculture and fishery worker has fallen.

11. New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Introduction Developing the classification What we found out – key facts

12. Consultation Ongoing throughout the development stage Internal :  Demography  Business Indicators  Census  Classifications and Standards  Statistical Methods External:  Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry  Ministry of Social Development  Ministry of Economic Development  Housing New Zealand Corporation  Christchurch City Council  Rural issues group (representing the views of academia and local government) Developing the classification

13. Review of international definitions No international standard definition of urban or rural Population size, population density and percentage of agriculture workers most commonly used to delineate Standard New Zealand classification uses population size Many countries express dissatisfaction with currently used definitions Developing the classification

14. Variables we considered Population size and density Single number indicator of remoteness – distance from a hospital Workplace address compared to usual residence address Developing the classification

15. Determining the composition of the classification Consistent with standard urban/rural classification at broadest level Regards rural areas as an integral part of the classification rather than as the residual of urban areas Develops the concept of remoteness for defining rural populations Developing the classification

16. New Zealand Urban areas Main urban areas Satellite urban communities Independent urban communities Rural areas with high urban influence Rural areas with moderate urban influence Rural areas with low urban influence Highly rural / remote areas Rural centresOther rural Minor urban areas Secondary urban areas Main urban areas Developing the classification

17. Methodology for urban areas Main urban areas remain consistent with standard urban areas classification, including urban zones. Secondary and minor urban areas reclassified based on their dependence on main urban areas in terms of employment. Threshold set at 20 percent of the employed population working in a main urban area. Developing the classification

18. Main urban areas North Island Whangarei Auckland Hamilton Tauranga Rotorua Gisborne Napier-Hastings New Plymouth Wanganui Palmerston North Kapiti Wellington South Island Nelson Christchurch Dunedin Invercargill

19. Satellite and Independent urban areas Manawatu-Wanganui Satellite urban communities Levin Independent urban communities Bulls Woodville Feilding Dannervirke Taumarunui Raetihi Ohakune Taihape Waiouru Foxton Marton Pahiatua Shannon Secondary urban area Levin Minor urban area Bulls Woodville Feilding Dannervirke Taumarunui Raetihi Ohakune Taihape Waiouru Foxton Marton Pahiatua Shannon Towns and settlements with strong links to main urban centres 20 percent or more of the usually resident employed population’s workplace address is in a main urban area. Towns and settlements without significant dependence on main urban centres Less than 20 percent of the usually resident employed population’s workplace address is in a main urban area.

20. Urban/Rural Profile Categories Rural area with moderate urban influence State highway Independent urban community Main urban area Satellite urban community Rural area with high urban influence Rural area with low urban influence Highly rural/remote area

21. Developing the classification Home address meshblock Workplace address meshblock percentage of employed population Urban area multipliers Index number MainSecondMinorRuralMain (x4) Second (x2) Minor (x1.5) 2311***0001000000 2806***03.1096.906.20 2761***04.422.273.308.833.342.1 2817***028.642.928.6057.264.3121.5 2500***40.2014.944.8160.8022.3183.1 2486***54.506.838.6218010.2228.2 2712***10000040000 Index 0- 25Highly rural/remote areas 26- 100Rural areas with low urban influence 101- 200Rural areas with moderate urban influence 201- 400Rural areas with high urban influence Methodology for rural areas Analysis conducted at meshblock level of detail. For all rural meshblocks a ‘rurality index number’ was calculated, this was used to allocate the meshblock to one of the four rural categories. GIS (ArcView 8.3) used for the analysis  instantly view results of calculations  determine weightings  determine breaks between categories  minor manual adjustments Even distribution of the rural population between the four categories to allow meaningful analysis

22. Rural areas with high urban influence - also referred to as peri-urban, urban fringe, rural belt - found exclusively around main urban areas, though not necessarily contiguously - significant proportion of the resident population work in a main urban area. Rural areas with low urban influence Identifies areas with a strong rural focus: - majority of the population work in a rural area - some may work in a secondary or minor urban area, but few, if any, will work in a main urban area due to the weighting system Rural areas with moderate urban influence Areas can be included in this category: - if a large percentage of the resident population works in a minor or secondary urban area, or - if a significant percentage work in a main urban area. Highly rural/remote areas - areas with minimal dependence on urban areas in terms of employment - or area with a very small or no (employed) population Urban/Rural Profile Categories Rural area with moderate urban influence State highway Independent urban community Main urban area Satellite urban community Rural area with high urban influence Rural area with low urban influence Highly rural/remote area

23. New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile Introduction Developing the classification What we found out – key facts

24. Area Population density Percentage of New Zealand population Percentage of New Zealand land area Main urban area522.871.11.9 Satellite urban community232.13.00.2 Independent urban community265.911.70.6 Rural areas with high urban influence 12.92.62.8 Rural areas with moderate urban influence 6.53.68.0 Rural areas with low urban influence2.66.033.3 Highly rural/remote areas0.52.053.1 New Zealand total14.2100.0

25. Average Weekly Income June 2003 quarter

26. Number of Residential Consents per 1,000 households, as at June 2003

27. Male/Female Ratio

28. Main Urban Areas Most ethnically diverse population:  77.0 percent European  13.1 percent Mäori  8.4 percent Pacific Peoples  8.7 percent Asian  0.9 percent Other Most qualified population:  24.9 percent had no qualifications, compared with 27.6 percent nationally. Highest percentage of professionals:  16.5 percent compared to 14.7 nationally. Most crowded:  4.3 percent of households requiring one extra bedroom and 1.4 percent of households requiring two or more extra bedrooms.

29. Main Urban Areas Had second highest annual personal median incomes ($19,200, compared with $18,500 nationally). But lowest home ownership rate.(65.8 percent).

30. Main Urban Areas 1991-2001

31. Satellite Urban Communities Satellite urban communities projected to grow by 19 percent between June 2001 and June 2021. Independent urban communities projected to decline by 4 percent between June 2001 and June 2021. Independent Urban Communities (compared with 16 percent nationally)

32. Satellite Urban Communities Median age of 38.0 years (highest for any area ). Median age of 35.9 years. Independent Urban Communities Highest child dependency ratio (40.1, compared with the New Zealand average of 34.8). Second lowest working age population (60.9 percent). Highest annual average birthrate (16 births per 1,000 population). 65 years and over dependency ratio highest (28.2, compared with the national average of 18.5). Lowest proportion of working age population (60.3 percent compared to average of 65.3 percent). Highest death rate (10.8 deaths per 1,000 people, compared with the national average of 7.5 deaths ).

33. Satellite Urban Communities Independent Urban Communities Are similar in relation to income, qualifications and employment: Independent urban had the highest proportion of adults without qualifications (38.0 percent followed by satellite urban (36.4 percent). These communities had the lowest median incomes and higher proportions of people working as sales and service workers, trades workers and plant and machine operators and assemblers.

34. Rural Areas with High Urban Influence Rural areas with high urban influence had 95,799 people ( 2.6 percent of New Zealand’s 2001 Census usually resident population count). Population is projected to grow by 34 percent between 2001– 2021 (compared with 16 percent nationally). Population density of 12.9 people per square kilometre compared to 0.5 in highly rural/remote areas. Highest median and average incomes. Highest average household expenditure for any profile area. Highest proportion of people born in United Kingdom and Ireland. Residential building consents data for 2001-2003 consistently highest per 1,000 households.

35. Projected Population Change 2001 (base)–2021

36. Occupation

37. Rural Areas Away from Cities Population of highly rural/remote areas projected to decline by 9 percent. Rural areas with low urban influence projected to increase by 2 percent. Rural areas with moderate urban influence projected to increase by 21 percent.

38. Rural Areas Away from Cities Highly rural/remote areas Population largely European and Mäori. Approximately 1 in 3 people living in highly rural/remote areas in the Gisborne and Bay of Plenty regions spoke Mäori.

39. Rural Areas Away from Cities Employment Much higher than average labour force participation rates in all rural areas. Much higher proportions work as agriculture and fishery workers. Much higher proportion of employers and and self employed. Highly rural/ remote areas and rural areas with low urban influence had higher than average median incomes. Highly rural/remote areas and rural areas with low and median influence in the South Island had higher median incomes than the same areas in the North Island.

40. The Full report The full report can be found at: http://www.stats.govt.nz/urban-rural-profiles/default.htm The report contains: analysis of the 7 urban/profile categories regional maps full regional data tables full concordances between the urban/rural profile categories and meshblocks, areas units, and standard urban areas. print version in PDF format

41. alex.bayley@stats.govt.nz rosemary.goodyear@stats.govt.nz