1. Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation: Research and Policy Challenges Alexander Carius, Adelphi Research (Berlin) Wilton Park Environment, Development and Sustainable Peace Finding Paths to Environmental Peacemaking September 16-19, 2004

2. Armed Conflicts (2002) Conflict data from www.prio.no/cwp/armedconflict. Map: Jan Ketil Rød

3. Characteristics of Armed Conflicts (1946–2002)

4. Environment & Security in Research and Policy Research Resource scarcity or abundance as potential sources of conflict – inequality in access, distribution, and wealth Debate shifted from environment as source of conflict to environmental cooperation as a tool for confidence building Policy Environment and security debate has gained considerable political attention (WCED, OSCE, UNEP, UNDP, NATO, EU) However, normative approaches & concepts have rarely led to appropriate and integrated policies and programmes

5. Resource Scarcity Thesis Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource depletion Resource scarcity Resource competition Acute conflict

6. Arguments for Scarcity Thesis Most armed conflicts are associated with natural resources (at least if land rights are included) Many countries have unsolved territorial boundaries Territorial disputes can be proxies for disputes about other scarce resources (minerals, sources of energy, food, water, etc.) Population growth, poverty and youth bulges seem to exacerbate resource conflicts

7. Coping Capacity for Resource Scarcity Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource scarcity Technological innovation, substitution, market pricing Economic development Democracy & Peace

8. Resource Abundance Thesis Resource abundance can lead to conflict 1.Motivation To gain control of natural resource rents through conflict, acquiring control by force, or securing resources by secession 2.Financial means Finance the conflict with natural resource rents 3.Indirect effects Abundant natural resources may result in poor governance, slow growth, instability, and inequality – and, in turn, to conflict

9. Environmental Cooperation as a Tool for Peacemaking Environmental peacemaking Using cooperative efforts to manage environmental resources as a way to transform insecurities and create more peaceful relations between parties in dispute Overcoming political tensions through interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation Creating pathways for dialogue and confidence building where political tensions exist (process facilitation) Little knowledge about design for peacemaking initiatives or conditions under which they are likely to succeed

10. Preconditions for Environmental Peacemaking Institutions are key to environmental peacemaking - Avoid sudden or fundamental institutional changes - Develop long-lasting and flexible institutions Environmental peacemaking requires facilitation by third parties for communication, dialogue and data sharing Implementation of programmes, guidelines, rules, norms, conventions of institutions Cross-sectoral integration in program development at national and global level is important

11. Constraints for Environmental Peacemaking Dilemma of securitization Risk to overburden an already overloaded agenda Working on true assumptions without clear evidence Fragmentation of discourse and stakeholders - Narrow interventional approaches - Short term interventions

12. Role of Donors and Policy Makers Facilitate cooperation with sustained, long-term assistance for confidence building among parties Address interdependence between resource and conflict Recognize impacts of donor activities on these dynamics Reflect growing importance of regional approaches for confidence building and cooperation Increase opportunities for policy learning

13. Communication and policy relevance Don’t call everything an environmental security problem (clarity of concepts and targets) Prioritize relevant policies and problems and specify the risks in geographic and sectoral terms Capitalize on practical tools (PCIA to assess peace and conflict impacts of policies, programmes, projects) Switch from the normative to the project level (vice versa) Targeted briefings and policy dialogues Transfer knowledge and accumulate experience

14. Thank you for your attention Slides no. 2, 3, and 5-8 adapted from Nils Petter Gleditsch, “A Curse of Natural Resources? Scarcity, Abundance, and Conflict”, presented at the UNEP/DEWA Workshop on ‘Environment, Peace, and Security Initiative’, Nairobi 17 May 2004