1. Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communications 30 September - 1 October 2004 Dublin, Ireland Juha Turkki Ministry of Trade and Industry

2. Scenarios in 3rd national communication National Climate Strategy submitted to Parliament 2001 Ministerial working group to prepare the Strategy Scenarios: emissions in 2010, WM (89,9 Mt CO 2-ekv ), policy-scenario WAM (Kioto-target, 1990 level 76,8 Mt CO 2-ekv ) Policies and measures in policy scenarios Energy Conservation Programme, Programme for Promoting Renewable Sources of Energy, increased use of natural gas or new nuclear power capacity Impacts of policies and measures were assesed by two combinations of energy and economic models (VATT/VTT and ETLA/VTT)

3. Ghanges after the Climate Strategy TVO, a private owned Fiinish industrial power company submitted its application for a decision-in-principle to construct the fifth nuclear power plant unit Parliament approved the decision-in-principle on May 2002, Proposal for Emission Trading Directive was issued by the Commission in 2001, new instrument for mitigation => role of other economic instruments More accurate calculation rules for mechanisms and sinks, Proposal for directive for linking the flexible mechanisms and emission trading was issued, Discussion concerning the mitigation after Kyoto period

4. Updating the Climate Strategy Organisation and background material Ministerial Working Group Background material from sector-specific reports and from working groups for example: WG:s for energy conservation and for use of renewables WG for combining ET and other (taxes, subsidies etc.) measures for mitigation Timetable Updated strategy will be submitted to Parliament in the early 2005

5. Scenarios for Climate Strategy WM-scenario has been constructed for the years 2003-2020 WAM-scenario has been constructed for the EU:s emission trading period 2005-2007 the total allocation of allowances to ET-sector policies and measures in the sector outside the ET-sector WAM scenario for the years 2008-2012 and further to 2020 is under construction the total allocation of allowances to ET-sector domestic measures outside the ET-sector role of mechanisms (JI, CDM, IET) role of sinks

6. Emissions in the years 2000 to 2012, Mt CO2-ekv Tähän kuva!

7. Impacts of policies and measures Impacts are assessed with: EV-model, a general equilibrium model administered by Government Institute of Economic Research (VATT) further developed from the ETLA-model used in 2001 model contains a sub-model for energy economic impacts of policies and measures TIMES-model, administered by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) adjusted to describe Finnish energy system reactions of energy system for mitigation policies