1. IB syllabus: 6.1.1-6.1.7 AP Syllabus Ch 18 Video -
Global Warming
IB syllabus:
AP Syllabus
Ch 18
Video -

3. Syllabus Statements
6.1.1: Describe the role of greenhouse gasses in maintaining mean global temperature.
6.1.2: Describe how human activities add to greenhouse gasses.
6.1.3: Discuss qualitatively the potential effects of increased mean global temperature
6.1.4: Discuss the feedback mechanisms that would be associated with an increase in mean global temperature
6.1.5: describe and evaluate pollution management strategies to address the issue of global warming
6.1.6: Outline the arguments surrounding global warming
6.1.7: Evaluate contrasting human perceptions of the issue of global warming

4. vocabulary Correlation Global warming Greenhouse gases
Negative feedback
Positive feedback

6. Climate Change Global climate change is a fact of earth’s history
Prolonged periods of global cooling & global warming over past 900,000 years
Glacial periods followed by warmer interglacial periods
Even in stable times regional changes in climate occur on regional scale
Evidence includes – historical records, tree rings, pollen, radioisotopes

7. Average temperature over past 900,000 years17 16 15 14
Average surface temperature (°C) 13 12 11 10 9
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Present
Thousands of years ago

8. Temperature change over past 22,000 years
Agriculture established 1
Average temperature over past
10,000 years = 15°C (59°F) -1
End of
last ice
age
Temperature change (°C) -2 -3 -4 -5
20,000
10,000
2,000
1,000
200
100
Now
Years ago

9. Temperature change over past 1,000 years Temperature change (°C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
Temperature change (°C)
-0.5
-1.0
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2101
Year

10. Average temperature over past 130 years
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.4
Average surface temperature (°C)
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year

11. The Natural Greenhouse effect
Balance heat moving in & out of atmosphere
Keep constant moderate average temperature normal & necessary for life
Greenhouse gas molecules trap energy as IR radiation and heat lower atmosphere
Gasses = water, methane & carbon dioxide
Water relatively constant, CO2 fluctuates
Really a tropospheric heating effect
With natural cooling average global temp = 59 ˚F

12. CO2 effects
Past CO2 levels determined from ice core data – analyzing content of gas bubbles trapped in different layers of glaciers
CO2 has varied historically but is peaking presently
Correlation between CO2 and temperature has been show dating back 460,000 years

13. Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (ppm)
380
360
340
320
300
Concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere (ppm)
280
Carbon dioxide
260
240
+2.5
220
200
Variation of temperature (˚C)
from current level
180
–2.5
–5.0
–7.5
Temperature
change
End of
last ice age
–10.0
160
120 80 40
Thousands of years before present

14. Global Warming Since 1750, Industrial Revolution
Sharp rise in fossil fuel use, landfills  CO2 & CH3
Deforestation, Clear & burn grasslands  CO2 & N2O
Rice paddies, inorganic fertilizer use  N2O
Mostly cars (700 million) & coal power plants
Increased greenhouse gas from humans
Enhance natural Greenhouse effect
Raise average global temperature of atmosphere near earth’s surface  Global warming

18. This one is all ours - CFCs

19. Are we experiencing Global Warming? There is no longer a question
CO2 in troposphere highest in last 20 million years
20th century hottest in last 1000 years
Since 1861 average global temp has risen / ˚C
Shrinking of glaciers, melting of ice caps
10 – 20 cm rise in global sea level
Change of range of species, moving to poles
Timing of seasons has changed

20. (billions of metric tons of oil equivalent) CO2 concentration (ppm)
14.7
8.4
380
8.0
14.6
375
7.6
14.5
Fossil fuels
7.2
365
14.4
Temperature
6.8
(billions of metric tons of oil equivalent)
Fossil fuels burn
14.3
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Temperature (Cº)
355
6.4
14.2
6.0
345
14.1
5.6
CO2
14.0
335
5.2
13.9
13.8
4.8
325
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
Year

21. Evidence shows correlation not causation
Could be natural climate fluctuation
Could be global warming
Could be a combination of both
Remember that in all peer reviewed articles on the subject there is no question that this is a reality

22. Effects of Rapid Climate Change
Affect water availability, altering precipitation & evaporation patterns
Shift areas where crops will grow
Change average sea levels
Alter the structure & location of the world’s biomes

23. Where can we see change?
Antarctica: Surrounding ice cap holds 70% world fresh water, 90% reflective ice for cooling
Pieces the size of RI, CN are breaking off
Arctic: Ocean surface temp rising
Greenland: 85% ice sheet coverage + closest to the equator

24. ºC ºF 8 6 4 2 1 3
Arctic
Global average
Temperature
Projected
1950
1959
1975
2000
2025
2050
Year

25. extent of summer icepack
Penguins
Seals
Elephant
Weddell
Fur
Emperor
Adélie
Petrels
Krill
concentrations
Average minimum
extent of summer icepack
Average maximum
event of winter
icepack

26. present sea level (meters)
Today’s sea level
Height above or below
present sea level (feet)
present sea level (meters)
Height above or below
–130
–426
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Years before present
Present
If melting occurs…

27. Can we project future changes?
Scientists create climate models
GCM – general circulation model – represents air circulation on earths surface
Also include: (1) ocean circulation, (2) air / ocean circulation, (3) solar input, (4) aerosols
IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change (p 455 for results)
Still debate on severity of the issue
Agree that more research necessary to improve models

28. Temperature Change (°C) from 1860-1999 mean
Year
Temperature Change (°C) from mean
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2010
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.8
1.0
14.8
15.0
2000
Observed
Model of greenhouse gasses
+ aerosols + solar output

30. Change in temperature (ºC)
Year
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Change in temperature (ºC)
Models
Give
A Range Of
Possibility

31. What will effect continued climate change?
Natural & Human influenced factors will effect the future of global climate
Factors may amplify current trends  positive feedback
Factors may dampen current trends  negative feedback
These factors could influence how fast and how much temperatures change
Also effect regional differences

32. Feedback (Remember the time lag)
Positive
Increase Temp
Melt Permafrost
Increased release of methane
Increase Temp more
Melt more Permafrost…
Negative
Increased Temp
Increased evaporation in Tropics
Increased snowfall in poles
Increase icecap cover
Increased albedo
Decreased Temp

33. Factors Effecting Temperature
Solar output varies overtime
May account for up to 50% of climate change
Increase in cosmic rays may decrease temperature, decrease in CR  increase temp.
Pollutant effects may outweigh or reverse this
Ice albedo (reflectivity) feedback system
Ice, snow, sand reflect most incoming sunlight
Sea ice reflects 80%, water absorbs 80% incoming solar radiation
Positive ice albedo feedback system – increase temp  melt ice  less albedo  increase temp …

34. Clouds 50–55%
Snow 80–90%
City 10–15%
Forest 5%
Grass 15–25%
Bare sand 30–60%
Oceans 5%

35. Factors Effecting Temperature II
Ocean effects
Remove 29% of excess CO2 emissions
Solubility decreases with increased temp.
Atmospheric heat transferred into deep ocean
Ocean currents moderate global climate  fresh water influx stops motion  temperature drop will result
Sea level changes effect amount of heat and CO2 & earth’s biome distribution
Thermal expansion of oceans possible too

36. Vertical & Horizontal Water movement in the ocean
Greenland
Antarctica
Vertical & Horizontal Water movement in the ocean

37. Factors Effecting Temperature III
Clouds & Water Vapor content
Warmer temp increases evaporation & cloud cover
Clouds have (1) warming effect by trapping heat (positive feedback) or (2) cooling effect by reflecting heat (negative feedback)
Depends on time of day, water content and cloud type
There is an effect but the degree is uncertain

38. Human Factors I Air Pollution
Aerosols are condensation nuclei for clouds
Input could either amplify or dampen GW
Aerosols fall out of atmosphere & inputs are being reduced
Increased CO2 levels
Could lead to plant growth removing more CO2
Plants take in less as they mature, upon death they release it again
CO2 is a greenhouse gas trapping more heat
Soils may absorb some extra CO2

39. Human Factors II Greenhouse gas production
Power production, Land clearing practices, Transportation
Regional input global distribution
Lifestyle dependency on this process

40. What will happen
Not a normal weather swing of a few degrees this is GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Water distribution will change
Plant and animal distribution will change
Ocean currents & sea level will change
Extreme weather may develop – drought, floods
Human health in older populations & urban areas

41. Potential Benefits of Global Warming
• Less severe winters
• More precipitation in some dry areas
• Less precipitation in some wet areas
• Increased food production in some areas
• Expanded population and range for some plant
and animal species adapted to higher temperatures
Potential Benefits of Global Warming

42. Sea Level and Coastal Areas
Agriculture
Water Resources
Forests
Shifts in food-growing areas
Changes in crop yields
Increased irrigation demands
Increased pests, crop diseases, and weeds in warmer areas
Changes in water supply
Decreased water quality
Increased drought
Increased flooding
Changes in forest composition and locations
Disappearance of some forests
Increased fires from drying
Loss of wildlife habitat and species
Biodiversity
Sea Level and Coastal Areas
Rising sea levels
Flooding of low-lying islands and coastal cities
Flooding of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs
Beach erosion
Disruption of coastal fisheries
Contamination of coastal aquifiers with salt water
Extinction of some plant and animal species
Loss of habitats
Disruption of aquatic life
Weather Extremes
Human Health
Human Population
Increased deaths from heat and disease
Disruption of food and water supplies
Spread of tropical diseases to temperate areas
Increased respiratory disease and pollen allergies
Increased water pollution from coastal flooding
Prolonged heat waves and droughts
Increased flooding from more frequent, intense, and heavy rainfall in some areas
Increased deaths
More environmental refugees
Increased migration

43. Effects on Distribution of Biomes
Every 1 degree temp increase shifts climate belts up 150 meters in altitude & 100 km in latitude
Ranges of warm adapted plants and animals may increase
Dispersal method may effect ability of species to keep up with climate change
Extinction of plants and animals that could not migrate – specialized species decrease
Threaten existing wildlife reserves, parks, wetlands & coral reefs

44. Wetter than now
Drier than now

45. Global agricultural regions will change characteristics
Decreased production in some areas

46. Present
range
Future
range
Overlap

47. Major urban region at risk
Islands at risk

48. What can you do in your own life to effect local green house emissions?

50. Local Emissions Reductions
Waste less energy
Rely more on cleaner energy sources
Choose transportation wisely
Shifting to organic farming and sustainable agriculture
Gradually integrate solutions to decrease global warming, air pollution, deforestation & biodiversity loss

51. Type of Transportation CO2 emissions per mile (pounds per passenger)
1.6 (0.45 kilograms
per kilometer)
Sports utility vehicle
(1 person, 15 mpg)
Average car
(1 person, 21.5 mpg)
1.1 (0.31 kilograms per kilometer)
Jet
(U.S average occupancy)
0.97 (0.27 kilograms per kilometer)
Mass transit
(1/4 full)
0.75 (0.21 kilograms per kilometer)
Economy car
(1 person, 40 mpg)
0.59 (0.71 kilograms per kilometer)
Intercity train
(U.S average occupancy)
0.45 (0.13 kilograms per kilometer)
Carpool
(3 people, 21.5 mpg)
0.37 (0.10 kilograms per kilometer)
Mass transit
(3/4 full)
0.26 (0.07 kilograms per kilometer)
Bike or walk

52. Action CO2 Reduction Drive fuel-efficient car, walk, bike,
car pool, and use
mass transit
Use energy-efficient
windows
refrigerator
Insulate walls
and ceilings
Reduce garbage
by recycling
and reuse
Caulk and
weatherstrip
windows and doors
Insulate hot water
heater
Use compact
fluorescent bulbs
Set water heater
at no higher than
(120° F)
Wash laundry in
warm or cold water
Use low-flow
shower head
9 kg (20 lbs)
per gallon of
gasoline saved
Up to 4,500 kg
(10,000 lbs) per year
Up to 1,400 kg
(3,000 lbs) per year
Up to 900 kg
(2,000 lbs) per year
450 kg (1,000 lbs)
for 25% less
garbage per year
Up to 450 kg
(1,000 lbs) per year
230 kg (500 lbs)
per year per bulb
for each 6° C
(10° F) reduction
Up to 230 kg
(500 lbs) per year
for 2 loads a week
Up to 140 kg
(300 lbs) per year

54. Global Emissions Reduction
Phase in output based carbon taxes & input based energy taxes
Increase government subsidies for energy efficiency & renewable energy technologies
Fund transfer to renewable fuels
Place global & national caps on emissions levels
Sell & trade emissions credits on open market
Remove CO2 from atmosphere – tree planting
1997 – Kyoto agreement

55. Prevention
Cleanup
Cut fossil fuel
use (especially
coal)
Shift from coal
to natural gas
Transfer energy
efficiency and
renewable energy
technologies
to developing
countries
Improve energy
efficiency
Shift to
renewable
energy resources
Reduce
deforestation
Limit urban spawl
Slow population
growth
Remove CO2
from smokestack
and vehicle
Emissions
Store (sequester
CO2 by planting
trees)
Sequester CO2
underground
in soil
in deep ocean

56. The implications vary MEDCs Stand to lose the most economically
But have the technology to change
Also some of biggest polluters
LEDCs
Rapidly increasing their contribution – China & India
It’s their turn, why should they curb emissions
Cheaper energy like coal is used – lack technology for other methods

57. Figure 18-21 Page 467 Tree plantation Coal power plant Tanker delivers
CO2 from plant
to rig
Oil rig
Crop field
Switchgrass
field
Spent oil reservoir is
used for CO2 deposit
CO2 is pumped
down to reservoir
through abandoned oil field
Abandoned
oil field
CO2 is
pumped down
from rig for deep
ocean disposal
= CO2 deposit
= CO2 pumping
Figure Page 467

58. If its inevitable how do we prepare?
Necessary reduction in emission is unlikely in needed time period
Need widespread change in industry, energy, transportation & lifestyles
We must begin to prepare for the results of not changing in time…

59. Develop crops that need less water Waste less water
Move hazardous material storage
tanks away from coast
Prohibit new construction on low-lying coastal areas
Stockpile 1 to 5 year supply of key foods
Expand existing wildlife
reserves toward poles
Connect wildlife
reserves with corridors

60. So what’s the argument?

61. Realize even now there are dissenters
Based on
The complexity of the problem
The uncertainty of computer models
The percieved potential harm that will be caused economic cascade caused by doing something about it

62. But remember the precautionary principle
If an action is potentially harmful it is the responsibility of the group causing the harm to prove that it is not, rather than those being harmed having to prove that they are
Better safe than sorry

64. Contribution to Global Total (1%)
United States
25.5%
China
11.2%
Russia
6.7%
Japan
5.1%
India
4.1%
Germany
3.9%
United Kingdom
2.6%
Canada
2.5%
Italy
2.0%
France
1.8%

65. Per Capita Emissions (metric tons)
United States
5.6%
Canada
4.9%
Australia
4.9%
Netherlands
4.1%
Belgium
3.7%
Germany
2.8%
Czech Republic
2.8%
Russia
2.7%
United Kingdom
2.6%
France
1.8%

67. What about Global Dimming?
Reduction in the insolation of the earth’s surface –post 9/11 evidence
Seen in 1960s-1990s
Caused by increase in anthropogenic particulates like sulfate aerosols
When aerosol levels started to decline in the 1990’s dimming switched to a brightening trend
Can create a cooling effect to counter global warming
Potential Engineering Solution for us

69. You should be able to evaluate the contrasting human perceptions on this issue
Explore / defend your position based on this evaluation

70. Remember your choices will determine our future

71.
Losing Louisiana
XXX

72. 114
Global
warming
potential
(GWP) 14
Field
type
Conventional
tillage
No-till
cultivation
Conservation
reserve
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