1. Nico Cloete 26 November 2013

2. Policy Frameworks in SA 1.Policies: Implementation strategies – legislation and funding 2.Incentives: direct – indirect 3.Symbolic (compensatory legitimation) 4.National – institutional (development- support- incentives) Policy Moments in SA 1996/7 National Commission on Higher Education Report, Green and White Paper (1997) 2000/1 Council Higher Education Differentiation report, National Plan on Higher Education 2004 mergers of intuitions and funding linked to enrolment planning 2008 new funning framework fully operational, end of Programme Qualification Mix reviews 2011 latest accredited HEMIS data, and start of Green Paper and National Development Plan 2030 process.

3. Diagnosis: National Planning Commission (2011) From Numerous Reviews (World Bank; Harvard; WEF) 1.low participation and high attrition rates 2.medium knowledge producing 3.insufficient capacity for adequate skills production 4.differentiated (not formal policy) 5.minority (+/- five ) of ‘chronic crisis’ institutions (bad press) Shift from Equity to Development, and the Return of Equity (Transformation Oversight Committee, 2013) SA continually paralysed by inability to prioritise

4. Shape of the SA Post-School System (2010) 4

5. 5 Gross enrolment ratio and global competitiveness

6. 6 Graduates by field of study

7. 7 Throughput of graduates

8. 8 Race composition of SA universities

9. 9 Research output of academic staff

10. 10 Impact of SA science

11. Figure 2: R&D expenditure

12. 12 Higher education income

13. 13 A differentiated public university system

14. Policy Focus to Strengthening the Doctorate 1.Doctoral enrolment must grow – absent in NCHE, symbolic in White Paper, stronger in National Plan and strong funding from 2008 (ranging from $40 000 to $60 000 per student/graduate). Priority in NDP 2030 with graduate targets (from 1500 to 5000 in 2030. Focus on SET and business management. 2. Output efficiency must improve - from 1997 focus on efficiency in general, 2008 funding weak on efficiency, 2012 Green Paper and NDP much more explicit (throughput of 75%). CHET and CREST performance and efficiency indicators (symbolic) 3. Academic staff must have PhD - Financial and Fiscal Commission (2012) and NDP (increase from 35% to 75%) 4. Internationalisation - NPHE (2001) and Green Paper (2012) encourages post graduate recruitment, particularly SADC 5. Differentiation – policy covert/ambiguous, funding explicit

15. Figure 1: The rise of doctorates (1998–2006)

16. 16 Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

17. 17 Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

18. Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study, 1996 to 2011 18 Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

19. Progress of 2004 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years, according to bands of performance 19

20. Progress of the 2004 cohort of new doctoral entrants by nationality, gender and race after 7 years 20 Source: DHET (2013). PhD cohort studies.

21. 21 Comparison of international PhD completion rates Completion Rate

22. Percentage of the academic staff with doctorates by institution, 2011 22 Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

23. Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011 23 Country 2011 SET PhD graduates as % of all 2011 PhD graduates Average annual growth rate in total PhDs 2000 - 2011 Population 2011 SET PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population 2011 total PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population 2011 Australia 58.4%4.7%22 324 00015.927.2 Canada 62.8%3.3%34 483 98010.316.5 Czech Republic 61.8%9.6%10 496 67014.523.5 Finland 61.2%-0.2%5 388 27221.134.4 Germany 72.5%0.5%81 797 67024.233.4 Hungary 52.9%5.1%9 971 7266.512.4 Ireland 64.1%10.1%4 576 74820.331.6 Italy 63.8%11.1%60 723 57011.818.6 Korea 59.7%6.0%49 779 44014.023.4 Norway 63.9%6.4%4 953 00016.726.2 Portugal 52.1%3.5%10 557 56011.421.9 Slovak Republic 52.0%12.8%5 398 38416.131.0 Switzerland 68.5%2.2%7 912 39830.144.0 Turkey 55.7%7.4%73 950 0003.56.3 United Kingdom 59.9%5.1%61 761 00019.532.5 United States 55.4%4.5%311 591 90013.023.4 South Africa 54.2%4.5%51 770 5601.63.0 Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.

24. Where Are We at End of 2013? 1.Autonomy - a big issue for some universities, but Higher Education SA divided 2.Differentiation – official policy but no clear implementation steps 3.Knowledge production - (postgraduate, doctorate, research output) very strong with Presidency and Dept Science and Technology 4.Efficiency – DST, DHET and CHE using performance indicators 5.Equity – Equity Index (DHET) Shift from Equity to Development, and the Return of Equity (Transformation Oversight Committee, 2013) SA continually paralysed by inability to prioritise

25. 25

26. Dr Nico Cloete ncloete@chet.org.za www.chet.org.za