1. The Doctorate: Policies and Statistics Nico Cloete and Johann Mouton NRF and Carnegie Convening Pretoria, 28-29 October 2013

2. Figure 1: The rise of doctorates (1998–2006)

3. Growth in PhD graduates in South Africa: 1920 - 2011 3 Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

4. Average annual growth rate of PhD graduates, for the period 1920 – 2011 4 Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

5. Policy Frameworks in SA 1.Policies: Implementation strategies – Symbolic (compensatory legitimation) 2.Incentives: direct – indirect 3.National – institutional (development- support- incentives) Policy Moments in SA 1996 – NCHE report, Green and White Paper (1997) 2000 – CHE Differentiation report, NPHE (2001) 2004 – mergers of intuitions and funding linked to enrolment planning 2008 – new funning framework fully operational, end of Programme Qualification Mix reviews 2011 – latest accredited HEMIS data, and start of Green Paper and NDP 2030 process.

6. Policy Goals to Strengthening the Doctorate 1.Doctoral enrolment must grow – absent in NCHE, symbolic in White Paper, stronger in National Plan and strong funding from 2008 (ranging from $40 000 to $60 000 per student/graduate). Priority in NDP 2030 with graduate targets (from 1500 to 5000 in 2030. Focus on SET and business management. 2. Output efficiency must improve - from 1997 focus on efficiency in general, 2008 funding weak on efficiency, 2012 Green Paper and NDP much more explicit (throughput of 75%). CHET and CREST performance and efficiency indicators (symbolic) 3. Academic staff must have PhD - Financial and Fiscal Commission (2012) and NDP (increase from 35% to 75%) 4. Internationalisation - NPHE (2001) and Green Paper (2012) encourages post graduate recruitment, particularly SADC 5. Differentiation – policy covert/ambiguous, funding explicit

7. Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2011 7 Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

8. Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study, 1996 to 2011 8 Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

9. Progress of 2004 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years, according to bands of performance 9

10. 10 Comparison of international PhD completion rates Completion Rate

11. Percentage of the academic staff with doctorates by institution, 2011 11 Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

12. Ratios of doctoral graduates to academic staff with doctoral degrees by institution, 2011 12 Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013

13. Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011 13 Country 2011 SET PhD graduates as % of all 2011 PhD graduates Average annual growth rate in total PhDs 2000 - 2011 Population 2011 SET PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population 2011 total PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population 2011 Australia 58.4%4.7%22 324 00015.927.2 Canada 62.8%3.3%34 483 98010.316.5 Czech Republic 61.8%9.6%10 496 67014.523.5 Finland 61.2%-0.2%5 388 27221.134.4 Germany 72.5%0.5%81 797 67024.233.4 Hungary 52.9%5.1%9 971 7266.512.4 Ireland 64.1%10.1%4 576 74820.331.6 Italy 63.8%11.1%60 723 57011.818.6 Korea 59.7%6.0%49 779 44014.023.4 Norway 63.9%6.4%4 953 00016.726.2 Portugal 52.1%3.5%10 557 56011.421.9 Slovak Republic 52.0%12.8%5 398 38416.131.0 Switzerland 68.5%2.2%7 912 39830.144.0 Turkey 55.7%7.4%73 950 0003.56.3 United Kingdom 59.9%5.1%61 761 00019.532.5 United States 55.4%4.5%311 591 90013.023.4 South Africa 54.2%4.5%51 770 5601.63.0 Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.

14. 14 Doctoral enrolments by race, 1996 to 2011 Source: DoE (1999) & DHET (2013)

15. Progress of the 2004 cohort of new doctoral entrants by nationality, gender and race after 7 years 15 Source: DHET (2013). PhD cohort studies.

16. Doctoral graduates according to nationality as percentage of total doctoral graduates, 2011 16 233 68 1040 208 406 99

17. Figure 4: Masters graduates (2001, 2007, 2011)

18. Figure 2: Doctoral enrolments at 8 sub-Saharan African universities (2001, 2007, 2011)

19. Figure 3: Doctoral graduates at 8 sub-Saharan African universities (2001, 2007, 2011)

20. 20 Peer reviewed publications 2001, 2007, 2011

21. Publications (Web of Science, 2010) 21

22. African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production 1.Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate 2.Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals 3.Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership

23. Figure 5: External pressures on doctorate production in SA

24. Projects Ford Foundation project called ‘The Successful Cultivation of Social Science and Humanities Doctoral Scholarship in South Africa’ led by Professor Cheryl de La Rey. Funding to the Centre of Higher Education Transformation (CHET) from the Carnegie Corporation for a project titled ‘Transformation in South Africa Through a Collaborative Book Project’. (The book from this project to be titled Knowledge Production in South African Higher Education by Nico Cloete, Peter Maassen, Tebogo Moja and Johann Mouton, is scheduled for publication in mid-2014.) 1.to provide research leadership

25. African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production 1.Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate 2.Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals 3.Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership