1. Project Value The System Dynamics of Project Management Based on work done by W.J. Ledet Jr., as published on www.practicefields.com

2. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20022 Projekt Management Fakten 35% aller Projekten werden gar nicht fertiggestellt Oracle Inc 84% alle Projekte werden nicht innerhalb der vorgegebenen Zeit- und Budgetrahmen fertiggestellt Standish Group Obwohl 1 502 Projektmanagement Kurse angeboten werden www.seminarmarkt.de (22/11/02) 520 Traininganbieter sich mit der Thema beschäftigen www.seminarmarkt.de (22/11/02) 2 000 000 Kopien von MS Project installiert sind Microsoft (Stand: Project 98)

3. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20023 Cobb’s Paradox “We know why projects fail, we know how to prevent their failure – so why do they still fail?” Martin Cobb Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat

4. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20024 These Das Projektmanagement Prozess ist ein System Dieses System ist komplex Dieses System ist dynamisch Projektmanagement unterliegt die Regeln des System Dynamics

5. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20025 System Dynamics Wissenschaftliches Disziplin Entwickelt Ende der 50er von Prof Jay Forrester, an der MIT (SEHA wg. Artikel: Mass Institute of Tech) Analyse, Modellierung und Simulation von komplexen Systeme und deren dynamischen Zusammenhänge Überall verwendbar Intellektuell anspruchsvoll (Nur) Bedingt nachvollziehbar für Laie

6. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20026 System Dynamics Example Legend Cause or Effect Decision Point Delay A and B move in same direction An Increase in A leads to Increase in B A and B move in opposite directions An Increase in A leads to Decrease in B and vice versa Balancing Loop Reinforcing Loop (Snowball effect) Legend Cause or Effect Decision Point Delay A and B move in same direction An Increase in A leads to Increase in B A and B move in opposite directions An Increase in A leads to Decrease in B and vice versa Balancing Loop Reinforcing Loop (Snowball effect) Titl e Decision Delay A B A B Symptomatic Solution Problem Symptom "Quick Fix" Fundamental Solution "Long Term Fix" Delay Side Effect "Side Effect" Decision

7. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20027 Quality, Errors and Re-Work Error Generation Cumulative Errors Error Rate from Poor Pre-Work Error Reduction Activities Schedule Adherence Quality Standard Time spent on Alignment "Testing & Re-Work" Total Error Rate "Building on a faulty Foundation" Decision "No Time for Error Work" Decision Errors from poor Alingment Working Error Rate Normal Error Rate Required Communication Tea m Size Decision "No Time to Align"

8. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20028 Overview of Project Dynamics Project Parameters End Product Attributes of the end product - what scope was delivered? Error Density - how many bugs are there? Delivery Date - did we hit the window of opportunity? Project Cost Project Parameters End Product Attributes of the end product - what scope was delivered? Error Density - how many bugs are there? Delivery Date - did we hit the window of opportunity? Project Cost Other Project & Priorities User and Sponsor Needs Sponsor / User Communicatio n Scope Evaluatio n Planning & Control Work to be Done Work Completio n Scope Evolves Sponsor Support Fluctuates Decision Unanticipated Re-Work Errors / Re- Work Risk Management and Consequences Work Policies Dependicies & Parallelism Staffing / Training & Overtime Risk Assessment & Management Value of Product to Users / Sponsors Project Cost Ongoing Cost of Product Usage Overall Project Value Overall Project Value

9. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 20029 Getting Work Done Scop e Work to be Done Activities assigned to Resources Decision Activity Completion “Getting Work Done” Resource Level Decision Project Schedule & Budget Decision Constraints “Staffing”

10. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 200210 Scope Evolution Potential for Team, User, Sponsor Communication Clarity of Needs, Dependencies Constraints Changes in Scope "Cost of Scope Change" Work Completed "Improving Understanding" Scope and Re-Work Work to be Done Schedule and Budget Adherance "No Change Pressure" "Deaf Ear" Decision

11. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 200211 Poor Risk Management Risk Sources Risk Identification Efforts Risk Mitigatio n Efforts "Risk Management" Reaction to Risk Time for Risk Management "Quick Fixes" "Dependence on Quick Fix"

12. All rights reserved. Colm Toolan, Business Architect. 200212 Balancing Projects and Other Organizational Needs Work to be Done Resourcing to Project Decision Activity Completion "Getting Work Done" Project Schedule & Budget Decision Relative Value of Project Opportunity Cost of Project Performance of other Priorities Resources Remaining for Other Needs "Opportunity Cost Pressure"

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